Wednesday, November 23, 2005

again and again and again

I'm almost as tired of writing about Party's bad beat jackpot as I am playing at those tables. As of ~3am Saturday EST, the BBJ is $514k. Its current growth rate has slowed down to less than $3k/hour, but assuming it is not hit, the jackpot growth could easily exceed $5k/hour during most of the day tomorrow.

By my back of the envelope calculations, the EV of playing each hand at a $2/$4 BBJ table is currently ~+$0.094 per hand. This is every hand, not raked hands.

How did I come to this number? Here are my assumptions.

- The probability of a bad beat hand being dealt is ~155000:1
- The biggest assumption is that the likelihood of a possible bad beat hand being played out is 66%.
- the weighted average percentage of the jackpot that you would win if it is hit at your table is 5.43%.
- Jackpot EV per hand is ($514k * 0.667 * 0.0543) /155000 = $0.120
- At $2/$4 BBJ tables, an average of 52% of all hands are raked. (and hence the average jackpot drop per person at a 10 seated table is ($0.50 * 0.52) /10 = $0.026

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