Sunday, February 19, 2006

The wheels have fallen off the wagon

The last 5 poker days have been a moderate disaster, and my bankroll-safety-control-mechanism demands analysis of how this occured. My peak to trough in that period was ~$4,000, and my net loss for that period was ~$3,500.

Loss breakdown:
1) 42% $50+5 Party SNGs - 92 SNGs, 23% ITM, -32% ROI
2) 40% live $20/$40, -37.9BB, in roughly 6.5 session hours
3) 17% WPT Super ($200 rebuy)
4) 2% Small stakes online hold'em

Analysis:
1) The 92 SNGs consisted of 4 sets of 20 and 3 mini sets of 4.
Significant problem areas:
- very poor heads up play - 9 2nds vs 3 1sts.
More analysis needs to be done to see if I am pushing too much headsup instead of making smaller preflop raises (in the 300/600 and 400/800 levels)
- very poor bubble play - bubble boy 25/92 times
More in depth analysis needs to be done concerning 2 areas: i) am open I pushing too much on the bubble with no hand?, ii) am I calling too much on the bubble with very probable best hand, but when pusher has me covered?
2) The live $20/$40 sessions were very good games. There were numerous large pots that I lost on the turn or river (yes I know, waah waah). Objectively, I think I made 4, maximum 5 BB of mistakes that I could identify. While ~1BB/hr of mistakes is nothing to be proud of (naturally this can't include the number of undetected mistakes), I'd happily play in this environment every day. It would not surprise me if my long-term rate for those game conditions was +3BB/hr.
3) WPT super was a live $200+25, $200 multi-rebuy, $200 add on event. This is basically a $600+$25 event, so the vig is rather reasonable. There were 2 very good players at my starting table, 2 donks, and 6 relatively reasonable players (11 seated). Do I have enough of an edge to invest the time to go and play in something like this? It did not feel like it on this occasion.
4) The negative results from the small stakes online hold'em session is merely in the noise. Most of the negative results came during "additional" multitabling of SSHE while running the $50+5 SNG sets. Perhaps, I should focus exclusively on SNGs when playing SNGs, though the sample size is fairly small. The benefit of getting in those additional SSHE table hours is the efficiency in picking up Party points for the VIP promo. Is this tradeoff worth it?

Preliminary Conclusion:
Substantial additional study and investigation needs to be done on my SNG game.

4 comments:

cc said...

Do you practice SNG's with simulator, like Poker Academy 2.0?

d said...

No, I've just been flying by the seat of my pants. I'm thinking of starting to use SNG power tools by Eastbay. Mostly I want to get a better feel for making optimal EV pushing or calling decisions on the bubble or ITM.

Do you feel that practicing SNGs in a simulation environment is worth the time investment?

cc said...

I'm still not sure. It has improved my ring games consistently, as well as MTT play. I haven't played enough SNG's to be able to say for me, and the suggestion really is meant as a way to work on your game focused on specific leaks. I've especially found it beneficial before live MTT's, live trip to Vegas, or when I'm on a bad run. Better change of pace than dropping down in stakes, I find. For what it's worth...

d said...

Hmmm, interesting. Thanks for the suggestion