A few weeks back I said I would give up my entire poker bankroll if I made a particular type of mistake related to "incorrectly protecting my hand" again this summer.
In my last playing session, I essentially made the same mistake again. I'm not certain if the mistake is as bad as the last time, but if not, it is pretty darn close. I don't know what this should mean. Does it mean I have to give up my entire poker bankroll? Compare this hand with the previous one.
9 seated live $20/$40 limit hold'em game.
- preflop: loose player limps UTG, avg player limps UTG+1, unknown player limps in MP+1, LAG (but smart) player raises in MP+2, folded to me in SB where I find QsQh and I reraise, BB folds, everyone else calls. (5 players, 16 small bets)
- flop: 9d7c2h, I bet, everyone calls (5 players, 21 small bets)
- turn: 9d7c2h3d, I bet, BB folds, everyone else calls (4 players, 14.5 big bets)
- river: 9d7c2h3d7s, checked to MP+1 who bets, LAG folds, I call, UTG+1 folds, MP+1 shows 7h4h. MP+1 wins 16.5 big bet pot.
With 5 players to the flop for 3 bets, I definitely should know that ~any~ opponent with ~any~ pair or ~any~ draw will chase me down to the river. I must either check the flop or the turn to get a check raise in to have the best chance to survive at the river.
It could be argued that I should only call preflop, but I raised hoping to get a few players out. In prior hands, there had been opponents who had been capable of folding to a 3 bet after already limping.
Postflop, the only possible scenario where I can win given what MP+1 actually had would have been to get a check raise in on the turn with LAG betting. Even then, MP+1 may still call 2 cold with 2nd pair (I don't know him well enough to guess a probability). I'm also not ~certain~ LAG will bet the turn for me given I had 3 bet preflop (I guess he will at least 50% of the time, maybe more like 80% of the time if I check both the flop and turn).
Given what my opponents likely had, I think I could have won the hand (with fairly high probabilty) by calling preflop, check calling on the flop, and check raising the turn. However, this is "results oriented" thinking. I think my 3 bet preflop was fine, but I should have checked the flop and turn (when I saw that I had 4 opponents, but probably still even if I only had 3 or 2 opponents).
Now, the real question I am pondering is if this hand qualifies as a bad enough "incorrectly protecting my hand" mistake such that I need to fulfill my promise. In the hand from a few weeks ago, I had AA, so there were more overcards I was worried about when holding QQ. However, in the AA hand there was a flush and str draw on the flop vs just a str draw in the QQ hand. In the QQ hand, I have more opponents. In the AA hand, the button capped it preflop so I can be 100% certain he will bet the flop.
Some of these factors balance each other out, and the mistake in the QQ hand seems equal in magnitude to the AA hand. It seems like I owe my wife my bankroll. I know she doesn't want my bankroll, so I'll see what I can negotiate with her. I certainly think I must penalize myself seriously in some way.
Talk about bad timing. I'm heading to Vegas this weekend....
Now purely for entertainment value, I'll post the hand that immediately proceeded the one I just listed. It cheered me up quite a bit after the last hand.
- preflop: avg player limps UTG, unknown player limps in MP, LAG player limps in MP+1, loose player #2 limps in MP+2, CO folds, I'm find QsJs on the button, I mutter "steam raise" and put in 2 bets. Amusingly, the dealer loudly announces "steam raise!". SB folds, loose player #1 in BB calls, everyone else calls. (6 players see the flop, 12 small bets)
- flop: Tc4cKh, BB bets and says "let's see where I'm at", avg player calls, unknown player raises, LAG folds, loose player #2 folds, I reraise (trying to buy a free card). BB grumbles and folds, the other 2 call. (3 players, 22 small bets)
- turn: Tc4cKh9d, (BINGO!) avg player checks, unknown player bets (YIPPEE! even with a set, he's only got 10 outs), I raise, avg player calls 2 cold (OKAY DEALER - NO CLUBS!!!), unknown player just calls (WHEW, probably not a set, either drawing dead or 4 outs). (3 players, 17 big bets)
- river: Tc4cKh9d8d (GOOD JOB DEALER!), checked to me, I bet, both call, I show the nuts, avg player mucks, unknown player disgustedly throws his top 2 pair at the dealer (What's the matter buddy, you never outdraw someone? Think back 1 hand...). I win a nice 20 big bet pot. Very emotionally satisfying. Winning a big pot is always nice therapy.