Friday, September 14, 2007

Late stage blowup

In yesterday's event, I cashed for the minimal amount in 10th place (10th-18th pay an identical nominal amount) for the final table bubble in a very poor spot. I've made this mistake plenty of times probably because the majority of the time, I don't get punished for it. This was a sobering reminder of poor risk reward decision making at very critical times.

- the table was 5 handed
- average stack was 8.5xbb
- Hero in CO has the table barely covered w 11.75xbb; SB 11xbb; BB 10xbb; UTG 7xbb; button 7xbb
- Hero has not been particularly active since the table redraw for the final 2 tables
- no players are playing particularly wild or crazy
- Hero open pushes in CO w 7s7c

I think I tend to do this to avoid having to make any decision when re-raised, but on this occasion the ugly scenario of SB (AKo) and BB (KK) both having big hands arose.

It is 5 handed, so I like my hand. Given the playing conditions a 2.5xbb raise gets the job done. I will very likely call a push from a single opponent, particularly the shorter stack button. The only beneficial scenarios for pushing vs a small raise is if the BB would call a small raise given the situation with 2 overs that he would have mucked to a push. I hadn't observed the BB to be playing this way; I would expect this particular player in the BB to have either mucked or pushed.

Anyway, with a small raise, if there is action from 2 or more opponents, I am done with the hand (unless I am just called and flop a set). Sigh, sloppy play gets punished...

From the points I received yesterday, I should be in about 5th place in the overall standings. 1st place is still mathematically in reach with 3 events to go, but realistically even catching up to 2nd place would a great result considering the overall leader's point count. (Top 5 places pay)

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