Saturday, August 25, 2007

Turn: To buy (outs) or not to buy?

hand #1
8 handed live $20/$40 LHE
The table has been seeing moderately high percentage of multiway single raised pots to the flop
L1 is a weak tighty
Hero has been playing tight ABC poker for the last hour
CC1 is unknown
CC2 is a semi-maniac
CC3 is a weak tighty
BB is semi-loose passive
preflop: muck, L1 open limps, Hero raises w Ts8s, CC1 CC2 CC3 cold call, SB mucks, BB calls, L1 calls (6 players, pot size 12 small bets)
flop: 9c7h4c, L1 checks, Hero bets, CC1 raises, CC2 and CC3 cold call, BB calls, L1 mucks, Hero calls (5 players, pot size 22 small bets)
turn: 9c7h4cAs, BB checks, Hero?

Hero's preflop raise was merely for hand deception purposes in a likely multiway 2 bet preflop hand despite my poor position. Whether or not this is a good or bad idea is ignored for now. I definitely try to minimize my frequency of this line.

On the turn, given the preflop and flop action, there is a decent chance that there is an A out there, including AcXc. However, in a larger pot, should Hero represent the A to buy 3 outs from hands like QT, KT?

Given the player tendencies, and the preflop/flop action the only player who may be holding such a hand (that is ~not~ a flush draw) is CC2, and CC2 will not muck for 1 bet on the turn here. Given the likelihood that an A is out there, how large does the pot need to be for it to be worthwhile for Hero to represent the A?

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