Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Bay101 Shooting Stars $10k 2007

(updated with results at the bottom)

Out late on Day 1 again. Sigh...

Crappy table draw (relatively speaking) w Eric Seidel (bounty), Huck Seed, and James Van Alstyne, and just 1 retard who donked off his stack at the 13 minute mark to Huck Seed.

There were two interesting hands that I was involved in. Despite this being relatively early in a deep stack MTT, the peak decisions occur on the flop.

hand #1
Level 4 T$100/T$200/T$25, 10 handed NLHE
Villain #1 was semi-tight w/T$19k, Villain #2 was James Van Alstyne w/+T$40k, Hero has not been very active w/pfr ~5% w/T$27k.
preflop: UTG mucks, Hero raises to T$700 w/4c5c, muck, Villain #1 cold calls, muck, muck, muck, Villain #2 reraises to T$2500 on the button, blinds fold, Hero tanks for 15 seconds and calls, Villain #1 mucks (2 players, pot size T$6250)
flop: 2s4h5h, Hero checks, Villain #2 bets T$6k, Hero???

i) With 2.5:1 preflop and 13.5:1 postflop implied odds, should I be calling the reraise preflop vs a good opponent?
ii) Van Alstyne is ~not~ a bounty, although Eric Seidel (the bounty) is sitting two to my right with a T$40k stack. Should the fact that the table bounty has such a large stack cause me to make a decision which minimizes the risk to my stack? (since he is currently unlikely to be easily busted any time soon)
I can push on the flop where I know I'm at least a 60/40 favorite, or I can smooth call taking the risk that a bad card for me (an action killer card or a card that improves Van Alstyne's hand). How likely is Van Alstyne to check behind with his one pair on a safe turn after I call such a large flop bet? and if so, how much can I bet on the river (assuming a "safe" turn and river card)? (how much should I bet to justify my preflop call?)

hand #2
Level 6 T$200/T$400/T$50, 10 handed NLHE
Villain #1 is same as hand #1 w/same stack, Villain #3 is new to the table and appears to be a FTP qualifier who is not a donk w/T$17.4k, Hero has around to T$38k.
preflop: muck, Villain #1 raises to $T1100, muck, muck, Villain #3 cold calls, mucked to Hero in BB who calls w/KhTd (3 players, pot size T$3000)
flop: KdTh6s, Hero checks, Villain #1 bets T$1500, Villain #2 calls, Hero check raises to $T6000, Villain #1 disgustedly turbo mucks, Villain #3 tanks for 30 seconds and moves in for T$14.8k total, Hero??

i) What range can I put Villain #3 other than 66?


hand #1
I tanked for about 45 seconds while doing the standard - counting out the T$6k and showing how many chips I had left. I elected to push for ~T$18k more, and then bit my top lip and tried to look as nervous as I could without moving. Van Alstyne tanked for just over 4.5 minutes (I'm sure about the time because I had full view of my watch, and right from the time I pushed I had been considering how long I would wait before calling a clock. I had decided on 5 minutes with the hopes that calling the clock would provide even more reason for him to call.). Van Alstyne mucked, and Huck Seed immediately yelled out "I would have called you!" (which I was happy to hear).
My guess is that Van Alstyne had QQ (or maybe KK) and didn't want to gamble against his perceived best case that I had AhKh.
I was in fact trying to represent AhKh, but I would have been very interested to know his thought process. Would it be more likely for me to get action if I check raise the minimum?
Being out of position was, surprise surprise, a major disadvantage in this hand.

hand #2
I elected to call, and my worst nightmare came to pass. Villain had slow played KK requiring me to pull out my first even perfect perfect.

Well, I'm still waiting on my first perfect perfect.

In retrospect, I'm not sure how to model his range. The only hands I can beat are a terribly played AA or AK and a total gambler's QJ. My current thought is:
66 - 65% of the time (I have 16.7% pot equity)
TT, KK - 5% (4.4% pot equity)
KT - 10% (50% pot equity)
AA - 10% (73%)
QJ - 10% (69.5%)
Combining these numbers, my weighted pot equity is ~30%, so I'm reasoning that this wasn't a terrible call on my part when I was getting 3:1. Are these percentages realistic?

I guess another important fact to consider is how much difference does it make to me to have the following stacks T$20.5k (if I call and lose), T$31k stack (if I muck), T$58k (if I call and win). My table is not going to be broken on this day. Seidel has around T$55k at this point, and Seed has about T$45k.


Eric a.k.a. Bone Daddy said...

Tough hands, 2-pair are always a recipe for disaster.

Hand 1: I love the call with 4 5; I’d most likely fold ace jack k j here, but low cards are great to play against aggression, so I like the call a lot and the price is right to place a major hurting if you hit. I don't stick around though, if a 3 comes the board is an OESD, so much can go wrong. My guess is you pushed and shut the hand down.

2. Another great hand, the only hands I could place him on other than 66 is k-10 like you, king ace, or the old bluff with outs, jack queen. I would think he would have re-popped pre-flop with KK or 10-10.

Do tell.

d said...

Yeah, two pair hands get me into trouble again and again and again.

I am definitely in the same line of thinking that he would have repopped with a big PP.

I updated the post with the results.

d said...

Hand 1: BR quickly pointed out that it is much easier to get Van Alstyne pot committed on the flop by leading out into him.

d said...

Reminder to self: Review this 2+2 thread on "Building Pots and Get Paid off With Big Hands"