Hand #1 was a tournament situation in which I could go either way on. The choice I actually made was heavily criticised at the table, but I believe that was results oriented thinking.
Hand #2 was a LHE cash game situation that had an abundance of available reads. The reads should have been able to prevent a bad laydown.
Hand #3 was a LHE cash game situation where the lack of prior history/reads should have dictated a conservative decision making process to avoid making the biggest mistake in LHE.
Live Limit LHE tournament. Top 18 spots pay, very flat and low payouts for 6-18. Payouts for 1st/2nd/3rd is something like 30%/20%/10%. 17 players remain. Average chips ~T$19k, with about T$330k chips in play.
MP is an experienced tournament player, MP+1 is a huge lagtard who very substantially overvalues his hands (and completely ignores the actions of others), CO is a desperate and inexperienced player, BB is a very experienced, somewhat conservative tournament player. MP has just joined the table. Blinds are T$2k/T$4k.
preflop: muck, muck, MP open raises (and has T$8 behind), MP+1 3 bets (and has T$3k behind), Hero in SB mutters to BB "I hope I don't have a playable hand", muck, CO calls all in for T$2k, button mucks, Hero looks down and finds AsQc with a chip stack of T$19k. BB has T$24k.
I believe that MP's range is 66+, AJs+, AQo+; MP+1's range is 22+,A9s+,ATo+, any 2 broadways; CO's range is very large
At the time, I believed that MP was capable of folding 99 or worse, AJs, AQo to a 4-bet; Button is capable of folding anything worse than QQ to a 4 bet.
Hero's decision is between mucking and raising (with the hope of folding out BB and MP).
preflop continued: Hero 4 bets. BB thinks for 30 seconds and then mucks, MP thinks for 30 seconds and then calls with AQo, MP+1 beats him in the pot.
BB curses because he mucked AcKd. For the huge sidepot, MP+1 is fading only 1 Ace and 1 Q.
Board comes A high with 4 diamonds. Hero nets T$6k chips with 1 player eliminated instead of losing T$2k and having 3 opponents eliminated with a monster chip stack on his immediate left.
Bah, if MP mucks a hand like 88 and MP+1 and CO have weak As, I look like a genius. Oh well, you can only put your opponents on a range of hands. What they actually have is another matter...
Live $20/$40 LHE ring game, 6 handed
CO is a 65/30/2.5 type who is particularly aggressive with flush draws. Button is a fearless semi-aggressive player who does not slow play any vulnerable hands. BB is a tight player.
preflop: muck, muck, CO limps, button limps, Hero raises in SB w AdJd, BB mucks, CO and button call. (3 players, 7 small bets)
flop: JcTh3c, Hero bets, CO calls, button raises, Hero 3 bets, CO calls, button calls (3 players, 16 small bets)
turn: JcTh3c5c, Hero fairly quickly checks, CO immediately bets, button fairly quickly calls, Hero pauses and folds (2 players, 10 big bets)
river: JcTh3c5c6d, check, check; CO shows a missed gutshot, button wins with QcJs.
Comments: The CO's predictable play has defined his hand to not include 2 clubs (although I'd grant a small possibilty of a small flush; perhaps 10-15%). The button's history suggests either the nut flush or a hand like QJ or J9s. The button will very rarely smooth call the turn with a flush smaller than the nut flush. The number of probable nut flushes that button could have is 7 (2-9, excluding 3). ATs+ would have been a pfr. The combinations of QJ and J9s is 10. The combination of T9s, J8s and QTo is 13, but these combos can probably be discounted by about 50%. This roughly defines button's range as having the nut flush about 50% of the time.
Given the information available, the pot is big enough for the Hero to peel on the turn and check call a non-club river.
*** Note *** In a very tough game, I have to muck the turn because even on safe rivers I will often be bluffed raised out of the pot - CO will fire again on the river UI and button will raise to win with the 2nd best hand. In general, in a tough game I will have a terrible time being able to understand where I'm at in a hand like this.
8 seated live $20/$40 LHE
CO is a very stuck player, SB and BB are unknowns; BB is a young aggressive looking Asian.
preflop: muck, muck, muck, muck, CO limps, Hero raises with AcQs on the button, all call (4 players, 8 small bets)
flop: AhJc7d, checked to Hero, Hero bets, all call (4 players, 12 small bets)
turn: AhJc7dKs, checked to CO who donks his last $15, Hero completes the bet, blinds call. (4 players, 7.5 big bets in main pot, 1.88 big bets in side pot)
river: AhJc7dKs4h, SB pauses and checks, BB immediately bets, Hero pauses and mucks, SB mucks; BB scoops with A6o.
I hate myself.
There have been 5 hands this year in the live $20/$40 LHE game where I have folded the best hand on the turn or river in a pot larger than 10BB. 6 months ago, my most substantial mistake was calling too frequently on the river (and a close 2nd was missing value bets on the river).
The turn folding scenarios occured where my pot equity was 60-65% if I was ahead with a moderate number of scenarios where I could be drawing dead. However, it is probably safe to say that I have over adjusted.
The volume of play for this year is 4000-4500 hands, and although I have been keeping track of various statistics, I have not been keeping track of the number of confirmed good folds that I have made on the turn and or river. I think that I do need to do this to better judge how much I need to adjust my calling standards on scary turn and river boards. The problem is that the number of scenarios in which a laydown results in no showdown (or no revealed hole cards) is fairly high. Hence, my data can be quite inconclusive.
I'm continuing to run very well in the live $20/$40 game (it is such a great game), earning almost 2 small WSOP buyins so far this month. If I can close out the month earning an additional 3 small WSOP buyins, I'm considering making a third trip to Vegas to enroll in additional WSOP events; perhaps during the July 4th weekend, or the subsequent weekend when the WPBT event is running.