Monday, April 10, 2006

Spinning my wheels, but swinging for the fence


I currently have no juicy online promotions influencing me to play online limit ring games . As a change of pace, the last few days have been devoted primarily to live play and online MTTs and supers. The live limit ring games continue to go well, and to balance things out nicely the MTTs and supers ran for a big goose egg. The grand total for the last 3 days of work is an uninspiring -$50. (Net investments in securing a WSOP ME seat now exceed -$850)

The $216 FTP WSOP super last night was kind of fun. During the course of the MTT, I was seated with Andy Bloch, savemyskin (Chris Fargis), TheDonator (a highly ranked online MTT player), and a goodly number of loose passives and weak tights. I busted in the low teens and TheDonator bubbled in 3rd (the 2 seat guarantee was exactly met with 120 entrants). This was the 2nd time I have run this event, and the field was very soft on both occasions. I'll continue to play this event if I don't win a seat elsewhere.

Game choices for the short term

I've made some decisions on my game play for the next few months that deviate from recent strategy. In a nutshell, I plan to de-emphasize steady bankroll growth and variance minimization. My tolerance for going broke is increased. To quantify this, I would say that a tolerable risk of ruin in the next 12 months is 30%.

Over the last 4 months, I've entered an average of ~15 $100+ buyin MTTs or Supers per month. Until the WSOP, I plan to increase my entry rate into these class of events substantially. The schedule will be designed such that I will enter 60/month with the expectation that the actual number will be considerably less (40-50) either due to making it very deep in some events (and not wanting to start any additional events simultaneously) or missing some scheduled events due to busyness in my non-poker life. Satellites to big buy in events will represent a good 20-25% of the MTTs.

The ratio of live/online play will be maintained (to sustain/improve live play skills), and as such, time allocated for exclusively multitabling online ring games will be substantially reduced. I will still be playing 1 or 2 tables of 6max limit games during the early stages of MTTs, but I imagine the total number of online LHE ring game hands played per month will decrease by half.

Additionally, I intend to move up sooner than planned from playing $10/$20 6max to $15/$30 6max. My understanding is that the quality of play is comparable at both levels, so the difference (after adjusting for the 2/3 SB structure) is just in the stakes.

I intend to follow this plan, but will reevaluate if my results hit a combination equivalent to -50 MTT buyins and -300BB ring game loses.

Much of the motivation for making a strategic change is related to an increasing likelihood of staying at my day job for the forseeable future.

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