2 pair - the bane of my LHE existence

Hmmmm, long time no post. The best out-of-the-blue post is a raving insomniac 3am post....

Of late, I have been exclusively playing live $20/$40 and $40/$80 LHE with a heavy emphasis on the former. There are a variety of reasons for this that I may get into in a later post.

There are 4 hands from my last few sessions that I wanted to mull over, so I thought it would be best to churn out a post to force myself to take the time to do so. I'll first describe the hands, and then make some commentary after the hand history.

In each of the hands, either the Hero or a Villain holds 2 pair.

As always, comments and/or questions are appreciated.

hand #1 - collusion/paranoia
Live $20/$40 LHE, 6 handed.
- preflop: mucked to CO who raises, Hero 3 bets on the button with KcJs, SB mucks, BB pauses and cold calls, CO calls (3 players, pot size 9 small bets)
- flop: Tc4h3s, BB checks, CO bets, Hero calls, BB check raises, CO calls, Hero calls (3 players, pot size 15 small bets)
- turn: Tc4h3sJc, BB bets, CO raises, Hero tanks and cold calls, BB tanks, picks up his cards, shows his neighbor his hand and mucks, CO remarks to Hero "you have AcKc?" (2 players, 11.5 big bets)
- river: Tc4h3sJc5h, check, check, CO's top two pair scoops the pot

For difficult-to-describe reasons, when the BB cold called preflop I suddenly had the feeling that I was in a collusion situation. I've never felt this way about any live cash game situation I have ever been in. However, BB had an expression on his face that didn't seem quite right to me. The BB and CO are both mainland chinese (as opposed to HK'ers, ABC's, or even any other asian) and this possible (although granted very thin) link gave me pause for concern.

When the BB check raised the flop, my collusion concern increased. On the turn, my internal feeling about the collusion was still very strong. I decided to base my decision on how to play the hand on the turn with the assumption that the 2 opponents were colluding. Given that I was "put" in a situation where I was facing two bets cold, I felt my "colluding" opponents had weak hands and wanted to win the hand without a showdown. When I acted on the turn, I actually picked up enough chips in my hand to make it 3 bets, broke off the 2 bets somewhat slowly leaving clear indications that I had considered 3 betting.

Naturally, given the way the rest of the hand played out, the BB and CO were not in cahoots. I later discover that BB had shown his neighbor ATo before mucking. My collusion radar was WAY off. That is quite disconcerting....

Admittedly, my flop play is very questionable. When facing the first bet, if I am concerned about collusion, I should simply muck (having missed the flop), cut my losses, and pay more attention during the remainder of the session for any additional possible patterns of collusion. Otherwise, if I'm going to continue on in the hand, I should take advantage of my position and raise the flop donk bet.

hand #2 - loosey-goosey/big pot
Live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
- preflop: 5 limpers, Hero completes in SB with Qd5c, BB checks (7 players, pot size 7 small bets)
- flop: 3c5s9d, Hero bets, solid BB calls, muck, loose player raises, mucked to (pretty good playing) CO who 3 bets cold (I've played more than enough with CO to know his range of preflop overlimping/flop 3 betting here is exactly 33, 55, 99, A9, K9, 35s), Hero calls, BB mucks, loose player calls (3 players, pot size 17 small bets)
- turn: 3c5s9dQc, Hero checks, loose player checks, CO bets, Hero check raises, loose player tanks and mucks, CO immediately 3 bets, Hero tanks and calls (2 players, pot size 14.5 big bets)
- river: 3c5s9dQc3d, Hero check/folds, CO flashes 99 while raking in the pot

At the time this hand was played, I felt like a complete retard. After writing it out, I feel a little better about the hand because I think my decisions were reasonable (though not great). When CO 3 bets me headsup on the turn, I'm 100% certain he has one of 3 sets. I'm also 100% certain, I will be able to CR and get called on the river if I make Qs full (I will only be check/calling the river with 5s full).

I was not sharp enough on the turn comfortably estimate my EV given my 13.5:1 pot odds on the spot (and the weighted additional bets that will go in on the river if a 5 or Q hits), but I felt it was close to 0. (After inputting the numbers into excel to do a Baysian analysis, the EV turns out to be -0.063BB) Given that during the actual hand, I know the EV is close to 0, in retrospect I'd prefer to minimize my variance by mucking here (and in fact since the actual EV turns out to be negative, I think it is a clear fold).

There is some value to table image/tilt inducement/creating a good game environment to calling the turn 3 bet in what is clearly (at that point) a runner-runner situation. I don't know how to quantify this yet. Also there is certainly an amount of entertainment value in hitting that hand. (gambool indeed).

hand #3 - jammed
Live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
- preflop: Semi-solid UTG open limps, mucked around to semi-LAG CO who raises, mucked to Hero in BB who calls with As8s, UTG calls (3 players, pot size 6 small bets)
- flop: Ts9h7s, Hero bets, UTG calls, CO raises, Hero 3 bets, UTG calls 2 more, CO caps, both call (3 players, pot size 18 small bets)
- turn: Ts9h7sKd, Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG check raises, CO 3 bets, Hero tanks and calls, UTG caps, both call (3 players, pot size 21 big bets)
- river: Ts9h7sKdAh, Hero checks, UTG bets, CO calls, Hero mucks, UTG scoops with QcJc, lagtard CO mucks his T9s.

When I face the turn 3 bet, it is as clear as day that I will be having to call the cap as well. Thus, I should understand that I'm getting 18:3. (It is a bit of an exaggeration for me to call CO a lagtard since his real hand range on the turn 3 bet is 2 pair or a set, but a little better hand-reading from CO on the turn saves me 2 bets - bah the dark side of playing in loose games!) With 8 or 7 outs (depending on CO's set or 2 pair), I'm again in a close-to-zero EV situation again. Yuck variance...

As some regulars in this game often say, "this game is very flushstraighting...."

hand #4 - knocked out
Live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
- preflop: 2 EP limpers, ABC-playing button raises, Hero cold calls in SB with Qc9d, everyone calls (5 players, pot size 10 small bets)
- flop: Qh9s7c, checked to 2nd limper (sneaky player who frequently semibluffs, his range here is VERY large), 2nd limper donks, button raises, Hero cold calls 2, BB mucks, 1st limper (semi-lagtard) 3 bets cold, 2nd limper calls, button calls, Hero calls (4 players, pot size 22 small bets)
- turn: Qh9s7c8c, Hero checks, 1st limper bets, 2nd limper raises, button tanks and folds, Hero tanks (has no read on 1st limpers intentions) and folds, 1st limper calls disgustedly (2 players, pot size 15 big bets)
- river: Qh9s7c8cXx (brick on the river), 1st limper check/crying-calls, 2nd limper tables his 9h6h, and 1st limper takes it down with his top pair QcJs

My initial cold call on the flop was made with the intention that I would maximize my chance of winning this big pot by check raising the button on the turn. Instead, after the 1st limper check raises 3 cold, I turn into a disgusting weak tighty (fearing monsters under the bed and being jammed between straights vs. sets). This is a classic example of a hand where played aggressively postflop, I can win this big pot in a showdown (although admittedly I will be making a crying call on the river).

Additionally, given the way that the button reacted both during and after the hand, I imagine he mucked AK, so I'm particularly not pleased with my "plan" to check raise the field on the turn. Another awesome read by yours truly.... :(

Embarrassing realization #1

I've played in exactly 4 big buy-in tournaments ($10k or greater).

Of those 4 tournaments, I have been all in exactly 5 times.

Of those those 5 hands, when the money went in, I was ahead exactly 1 time. In fact, in that particular hand I was a whopping 60/40 favorite.

The ugly abyss

One big fault I have had in recent times is that I have put essentially no work into maintaining my support network. This is not a recipe for long term sustainable success.

Without going into specifics, I have undergone the worst 3 online cash game sessions of my career in the past few days.

Having people who understand such times and who can provide guidance would be very helpful right about now.

Shame shame

Exhausted...

Over the last couple of days, I have put in almost 10k hands. This is a lot for me.

Although these are mostly really low limit games, it is still quite exhausting. The mix is about 70% NLHE and 30% LHE. The LHE games are draining because you just take so many tough beats/unit time in those games, and the NLHE games have been tiring because I have been playing a very laggy style of play.

I still have A LOT of hands to get in before the end of the month, and it is tough to keep up the motivation to play. (I switched Party accounts a few weeks back, and now I am attempting to get back to the higher players club status by the end of the quarter ending Sept 30. Geez, it was so much easier when Party gave points for making deposits....)

I haven't felt this tired from playing ring games since the last few weeks of the Acceler-8-tor promo earlier this year.

To make things easier to endure, I plan to adopt a TAGier style of play for the NLHE to make the play less tiring. Additionally, I'll try to think of some way to reward myself for reaching my target.

Out in 24th

Got it in bad for the 2nd time today (JJ vs QQ) with no miracle.

Stats for the day:
Hours: 10.4
Results: 24/4495 (+$5987.75)
High water mark: 2 / 39 with 5.4% of total chips
Preflop coin flips won: 6 /8
Preflop dominating hands won: 5 / 6
Preflop dominated hands won: 1 / 2

The 30 minute levels for these events are nice. Partially due to the 1 preflop dominating hand lost (which occured late in level 4), I really only was able to play multi street hold'em for about 4 levels.

Anyways, I have no definite plans to play in any other WCOOP events. The other events that I might be interested would be the $1050 NLHE, $215 NLHE rebuy, and $2600 NLHE (listed in the order of my preference). I probably have some personal things to take care of that preclude the $1050 event, and I probably won't enter the $2600 unless I satellite in.

For various reasons, I need to put in a fairly substantial number of hours at Party before the end of this month. That has priority above MTTs (both live and online).

Flipping coins...

Sitting through a preflop all in coin flip for ~$30k of tournament equity is not a comfortable experience...

I'm down to 15/31 with an M of 8.6

Yuck...

WCOOP Event #2

Holy crap, I'm 3rd in chips with 41 left.

I've said it once, and I'll say it again. DON'T DO ANYTHING STUPID!!!

WSOP Circuit event - Lake Tahoe

I got back from Lake Tahoe today after spending an extended weekend at the WSOP Circuit event.

I only played in 3 events, 1 mega, and 1 2nd chance - cashing 2 times albeit in the 2 smallest buyin tourneys.

The highlight for me was event #4, $300+$40 NLHE/NL7CS. When the field was down to 3 players, I held 50% of the remaining chips (it was in the middle of a NLHE round with 47 total big blinds in play). As there is no ring given in any circuit event other than the main event, I didn't see a great deal of value in winning the event. We negotiated a deal in which the 2nd chip leader would be listed as the official winner of the event. I was officially listed as the runner up.

Bah, this was one of those "I wish I could take it back" decisions. Anyway, what's done is done.

The field had a mere 47 entrants. The only bracelet winner I noticed in the field was 1997 7CS winner Vince Burgio whom I did share tables with for about 2 hours. However, we were involved in exactly 0 hands together.

Still alive

Although I haven't posted in ages, I have been playing a lot of poker lately.

After my awful results in the WSOP, I have spent the vast majority of my time grinding it out in cash games - online, live, small stakes no limit and midstakes limit.

In the next few weekends (starting with this one), I'm planning to go back out on the road for the live tournament circuit. I plan on hitting up some WSOP Circuit events in Lake Tahoe (although I expect very small fields at this series) this weekend, Cal State Poker Championship events at the Commerce the following weekend, and Festa Al Lago at the Bellagio in early October. That is a lot of travel (and plans are always subject to change), but I am looking forward to giving another shot at these $500-$2k buyin events.

That's it for now...

Good eats

I've been meaning to make a post listing a bunch of random things from Las Vegas/WSOP/Rio/Harrah's that I want to remember for next year. However, I've been far too lazy to do it. It has been a week already, and much is forgotten.

One thing that still hasn't slipped my mind, but that I definitely don't want to forget, is my new favorite quick meal in Las Vegas: Tom Yum Noodle Soup
This is available for about $7 at the Thai/Chinese restaurant right at the corner of Spring Mountain Road and S Valley View Blvd which is roughly 1/2 mile from the Rio.

Yum yum, I'm salivating just thinking about it...

Going home with some dignity?

Due to personal reasons, I sat out of Events 42-44. I was seriously considering throwing in the towel for the series. My family was strongly suggesting that I head home early.

I got motivated hearing that Bill Chen made another final table, so last night I registered for the final event, #45 $1500 NLHE.

My starting table featured Humberto Brenes and, of course, a late arriving Phil Hellmuth.

Phil won a quick all in coin flip that saved us from listening to any verbal tirade.

Humerto played exactly 3 hands, 55, AA, QQ having his headsup opponent in bad shape each time, but lost 2 sizeable pots and chopped the other. Humberto took it very well, and gave the dealer a friendly slap on the back. The dealer freaked out, and tried to call the floor on him. Humberto tossed the dealer a C note, but the dealer was not placated. Humberto eventually left without things getting too out of hand.

My next table featured Cyndy Violette, but nothing too interesting happened there.

My final table featured Doyle Brunson and Krazy Kanuck (fellow Canadian, James Worth).

I only spent 2 hands at this table. The second hand, I got it all in 3 ways with Doyle and my neighbour with the nut straight. My opponents had the 2nd worst possible set of hands - bottom set for my neighbour, and a K high flush draw for Doyle. Doyle took down a very nice pot when he made the nut flush on the turn, and my neighbour missed his redraw.

I was initially thinking I could finally go home with some dignity after getting my chips in with the nuts, but Poker Stove tells me my pot equity was a mere 38%.

Sigh... I'll have to hope for a better series next year....

Live play MTT lesson

The $200k Crypto freeroll for WSOP Main Event qualifiers (who did not reach the money) ran at Gold Coast today. An additional $20k+ of bounties was also awarded. There were roughly 90 runners, with 50 places paying. Man oh man, talk about nice overlay...

There was one hand today where I made a mistake that only could occur in live play in an MTT. I resolve to never make this mistake again. There are probably a number of dubious actions on my part in the hand, but one thing really sticks out to me.

hand #1
The villian in this hand is probably the tournament chip leader, and he has already collected 1 pro bounty for $2k. I have already made a pretty big laydown on the river to Kenna James (who is not involved in this hand) about 15 minutes earlier.
Blinds: 50/100, effective stacks T$10,000, avg stack is perhaps ~T$10,000
- preflop: folded to CO and Villain raises to T$300, Hero raises to T$1200 with AhQh, blinds fold, Villain fairly quickly calls. (2 players, T$2550 pot size)
- flop: Qd7c4h, Villain checks, Hero bets T$1500, Villain fairly quickly calls. (2 players, T$5550 pot size)
- turn: Qd7c4h7h, Villain bets T$2500, Hero tanks for ~15 seconds and calls (2 players, T$10550 pot size)
- river: Qd7c4h7hTc, Villain fumbles around with his chips, puts 8 $T500 chips out and ~3/4 second later says $T5000, dealer reaches out, counts the chips and says the player said $T5000. Villain says okay, and puts out a $T1000 chip. Hero tanks and calls all in for T$4800.

Do you see the worst mistake in this hand?

By the way, I'm pretty proud of how pathetic I was able to look when I made the T$1500 flop bet....

Main event hand

This post is several days late......

Originally, I was going to post a number of my main event hands, but the only significant hand that was not in some way a bad beat story is the following hand:

hand #1
- mid-level 4 (100/200/25), avg stack ~T$17k, MP's stack ~T$15k, Hero's stack ~T$10k. MP's has been playing fairly conservatively, and took 2 very substantial pots this level (both with a set) to get his stack up from less than T$10k.
- preflop: folded to MP who limps, MP+1 mucks, Hero raises to T$800 with AdQs, folded back to MP who calls (2 players, T$2150 pot size)
- flop: AhJc7s, MP checks, Hero bets T$1000, MP calls (2 players, T$3900 pot size)
- turn: AhJc7s5s, MP donks T$1500, after tanking for ~15 seconds, Hero raises to T$4500, MP tanks for 1 minute then pushes, Hero folds.

I left myself with ~T$3700 after putting in almost 2/3 of my stack. Was this wrong?

During the hand, when MP bet into me on the turn, I was certainly concerned that I was behind in the hand. I elected to make the raise to T$4500 in the hopes that I could set the price for the showdown. (with the rationale that MP would set me all in on the river if I smooth called the turn)

Would it have been better to preserve my stack by calling the turn, and mucking to an all in on the river?

How often is my hand good when MP bets into me like that on the turn?

I currently believe my line of thinking was poor. I'd assume with a better hand, MP donks into me to avoid giving a free turn card once the flush draw came. Based on what MP had seen of me (or if he had been oblivious to how I had been playing), I'd assume that MP would only assume that I would take a free turn card if I didn't have much of a hand. With that assumption, MP is less likely to make a big river bet if he wants a call.

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My next WSOP event is tomorrow: Event #40 $1000k NLHE. This is going to be quite a crapshoot...

Aggressiveness or recklessness?

I'm having some doubts about my general MTT strategy.

I've been playing 1 MTT per day (online or live) on this Vegas trip, and with the exception of the Sunday Party $1m guar (where my dad was sitting next to me sweating me out), I've been taking a relatively high risk aggressive line in a marginal tournament situations. Perhaps way to aggressive.

For example, in Tuesday's Wynn $300+$30 nooner, the following scenario developed:
- 180 runners, top 18 get paid. 130 remaining midway through the 3rd round (100/200 blinds). 130 left in the field, Avg stack ~T$4150. My table has just broken, and I am above avg with ~T$6900.
- I walk over to my new table, notice that I am just about to take the big blind, but don't pull the olde "wander around looking for my table until I just miss the BB".
- I sit down and the old gezzer to my left has a monster ~T$14k stack, and there are a couple of slightly above avg stacks to his left. 3 small stacks are on my immediate right. pfft!
- very first hand, it is folded to the SB who completes. I make it T$800 with K8o which essentially puts SB all in. He grumbles for a couple of seconds before mucking. (...like SB wouldn't have jammed on me with any better hand!!)
- very next hand, it is folded to MP+1 (who is actually a regular from the 20/40, 40/80 LHE games in my local cardroom) who limps with an avg stack. Folded to me in the SB, I make it T$1000 with JcJh because I want to end the hand preflop (MP+1 "knows" that I am not normally a light raiser), and avoid playing a pot out of position with Mr. monster BB. Both muck (although BB grumbled about it)
- very next hand, UTG limps (although I didn't notice..... my sucky observation skills), folded around to me on the button. I make it T$600 with JcJh (yes, identical hands back to back). SB (Monster stack) looks me square in the eye and quickly calls. BB mucks, and UTG calls. (3 players, $T2k pot)
- flop comes: 2s5h6s, SB leads for T$1600, UTG mucks, I jam for T$5300 more, SB calls in less than 3 seconds.

SB struck me as an old geezer who could easily be sick of my raising antics who could be capable of calling my push with an underpair to my JJ (overpair to the board) or any draw. I didn't do the math at the time, but there are 24 ways for 77-TT, 19 ways for AsXs or KsXs. I strongly doubted he would have led at the pot with any better hand (but hell, I had no prior observation of his play).

Anyway, SB's actual hand was As4s and I busted when the Ac hit the turn and I missed the miracle 1 outer on the river.

Should I have taken a more passive line on the flop vs. the big stack at this stage of the MTT?

Out

Busted towards the end of level 4. A moderate number of interesting hands. I'll post these tomorrow....

neat little extra

I've recently ranted negatively about Interpoker. How about saying something nice for a change?

Well, here's one: A thoughtful little extra that was in the Interpoker swag package was a 25 minute massage.

I've never had a massage at the poker table before (primarily because I am too cheap), so here's to hoping I don't fall asleep at the table...

Ready to rumble

I arrived in Vegas late tonight. There was a whole mess with how I handled the accomodations, so I'm staying a couple of nights at Harrahs before moving to the Rio on Saturday. I have lots of material to write about if I get the time. (and I haven't finished up my event/trip reports from my earlier WSOP events...)

I'm starting tomorrow (Day 1A), Table #14, Seat 8.

You should be able to sweat me at Wicked Poker Chops. WCP is going to be providing some coverage for 5 bloggers.

Bad beat

I've been back home for almost three days now. I've got a couple of partially written posts from the trip. Hopefully, I'll be able to finish them soon although I have been a bit buried in crap from the day job.

The only bad beat I took last week that is worth mentioning came about when I stopped by the Will Call desk (for the 2nd time, as a last ditch check) to check on my Main Event registration.

Interpoker finally got around to registering me, and managed to squeeze me in for my last choice, Friday 1A. Great job Ryan Hartley! You only had 4 months to get the registration in. Too bad 1C and 1D are no longer available. I also appreciate how slow or unresponsive you have been to my emails for the past few months. Wasting time on simple administrative details leaves a warm fuzzy feeling.

For no apparent reason, next year I will be giving my online WSOP qualifier business to Stars and FTP.

Event #22: $2k NLHE - donking it up

I didn't make the first break yesterday. I gave way too much action in the early rounds, although from a meta game perspective this might have been helpful in the next couple of levels if I had got a hold of some chips.

~12th hand, level 1 25/25 (T$2000 effective stacks)
preflop: UTG raises to T$100, folded to hijack who cold calls, Hero makes it T$575 to go with JsJh, blinds muck, UTG quickly calls, cold caller mucks (2 players, T$1300)
flop: 4c5h5c, check, Hero bets T$1000, UTG check raises all in for T$425 more.

Given that UTG did not shut out the cold caller, I'd give him a range of QQ-JJ, AcKc. That is 8 hands, 6 of which I'm a 9:1 dog, 1 of which UTG is freerolling to a chop, and 1 is a coinflip. My on the spot math skills were spotty due to lack of sleep, but I guesstimated I was about a 4:1 dog getting about 8:1. (actual was actually 4.4:1 dog getting 8.8:1)

I relectantly called and UTG missed his freeroll, so we chopped.

John Juanda was sitting in UTG+1, and he remarked to UTG that he was almost certain UTG had me beat when I took a few seconds to make the crying call.
I chipped up to about T$2700 raising a lot of hands. Early in level 2 I think I got about 1/4 of Juanda's stack because of my loose image.

Halfway through level 2, I dropped back down to about starting chips when I open raised the button with a big A and my opponent made 2 pair on the turn. So I was in the undesirable position of having a loose image but not a lot of chips.

About 45 minutes into level 2, the following hand came up. I didn't properly consider my table image.

25/50 blinds
preflop: folded to hijack who raises to $T150, mucked to Hero in BB who calls with 6c8c (2 players, T$325)
flop: Kh5c4c, Hero checks, hijack bets T$250. (At that time I totally misread my opponent. I didn't have any physical read on him, and I interpretted the bet size as weak given the coordinated flop), Hero counts out T$250 and then adds T$600 to make it T$850 to go. Hijack tanks for 15 seconds and then pushes all in for T$850 more. (At this point, I'm concerned I was trapped againist a bigger flush draw and top pair, but I did have hijack covered by about T$500) Hero reluctantly makes the call only getting 3.4:1.

Hijack shows top pair Ks, J kicker with no draw and wins the coin flip.

Next hand I open push my 77 in the SB; BB wakes up with 66 and I went straight to hell on the flop...

Next up: Event #23 $3k LHE

!writer

Getting knocked out early today has given me a bit of time to catch up on some blogs. At one point, I was trying to write an entry to describe how Day 1 of the HORSE event went, and how I felt during my time there. I realize that I'm a terrible writer, and found a post by Paul Phillips that describes it very well.

While making the walk of shame, I briefly debated playing live cash games or online play for the rest of the day. I chose to head back to my room at the MGM for some online play. My reasoning is that I don't feel like donking around in lower limit cash games, and my psychological state is too weak to play mid limit games. Instead I'm multitabling a ton of smallish buyin WSOP bracelet races/supers/subqualifiers as they require very little decision making abilities....