Donkey hunter

Perfect Perfect

2011-07-06T05:53:00.000-07:00

(Perfect Perfect......actually not - see edit at bottom)

I have played live limit hold'em for about 7 years, and today I can "proudly" say that I have hit perfect perfect for the first time ever. (I have lost to perfect perfect 3 times in live play, and that ratio of just 3:1 is on the low side....)

My play is poor on every street of this hand. How's it possible to do the wrong thing 4 times in a row? My only "defense" about this hand was that the hand occured in the first hour when I like to do my advertising....

hand #1
live $8/$16 LHE, 9 handed
preflop: 4 limpers, Hero raises in SB with 5d4d, everyone calls (6 players, pot size 12 small bets)
flop: Tc9d5s, Hero checks, check, check, MP bets, everyone calls (6 players, pot size 18 small bets)
turn: Tc9d5s4c, Hero checks, check, check, MP bets, muck, muck, Hero raises, BB mucks, EP 3 bets cold, MP tanks and mucks (something like A5s), Hero asks how much EP has left since he was fairly short stacked (answer 1.75 big bets), Hero calls (2 players, pot size 16 big bets)
river: Tc9d5s4c5c, Hero bets, EP raises all in for 1.75big bets, Hero makes crying call

EP tables 44 for a 1 outer for the Hero, and given MP's hand, more completely - a perfect perfect.

Woot! Hilarity ensues....

(edit #1) ok, I have come to my senses and realized that this is not a perfect perfect hand. My record is still intact at 3:0.
As you might have noticed, there is a runner runner diamond draw on the flop for Hero.... (which was noticed by Hero in the actual hand)

(edit #2) ok, I ran Poker Stove on EP's range in this hand (which I comfortably put as TT-99, 55-44, T9s, 54s) and our equities are 93.388% and 6.612%. This works out to a ratio of 14.124 and the pot is offering me 14.5:1 (including the rake, and not including tip). This works out to a 0EV call (after tip). So I think I may have only made bad choices on 3 of 4 streets....

Tomorrow

2008-02-26T01:21:00.000-08:00

"Once the worse thing possible in your life happens, be assured, you have nothing else to be afraid of"

Life's 2nd chances...

2008-02-09T21:31:00.000-08:00

It was a clear and sunny day. I was driving in the #1 lane eastbound on Interstate 80 to Reno, approximately 5 miles east of Nyack Road in Placer County California. I went into a slight bend in the highway which happened to be in the shadow of a hill.

As I passed the transition point between bright daylight and the darkened shadow of the hill I saw the dark patch of pavement. My right foot came off the accelerator and started to gently press the brake. The dark patch was from snow melt and had very recently refroze as ice.

The instant my tires hit the ice, my car started to rotate clockwise. A feeling of dread flooded through my mind and body. The vehicle completed a 180 degree spin as it slid into the snowbank on the right hand side of the highway.

My vehicle was at a stop, and my hands still clutched the wheel. I started to breath in a deep sigh of relief and reflect on how close a call it had been. At this instant my eyes darted up drawn by some movement.

As my car had rotated completely around, it was now directly facing oncoming traffic (though gladly on the shoulder of the highway).

I look up and see a large black SUV coming down the same lane that my car had previously taken. (It was an LX470 which is basically a Land Cruiser; not as big as a Hummer, but certainly it was no RAV4) It hit the same patch of ice with predictable result. The rear end of the SUV slid around, and once the vehicle had rotated 45 degrees, the entire truck rolled over and was flying through the air directly headed for my car. An oversize SUV at highway speed, utterly out of control is looming large in the windshield.

The testimonials people give about big accidents always include "It all happened so fast." and "My life flashed before my eyes." The experience felt exactly like this. My brain had only sufficient time to conclude "oh my god, I'm going to die!" I'll never forget that feeling.

I don't know which part of the SUV made contact with my car, but the front of my vehicle was crushed past the front tires. My car bounced around and ended up skidding half-way out into the right most highway lane.

During the crash, the airbags deployed (both fired as I had a modestly heavy travel bag on the passenger side seat), and the air was filled with a smoky acrid smell. My mind was processing things in slow motion. I smelled the smoke, and for an instant I thought that maybe my car was on fire, but then realized the smell was from the airbags.

I don't recall feeling any pain though I noticed my right hand was bleeding. (the deployment of the air bag had smacked my hand/arm which then collided with the rear view mirror; I later found the rear view mirror on the floor in the back seat of the car; I would also later discover that my legs and chest must have hit something as I had some moderate bruising)

I was deeply disturbed that the occupants of the SUV were seriously hurt. I mean how could they not be? At that moment in time, I was actually afraid to get out of my car and see them. Like a coward, I didn't want to get out and look, so I called 911 on my cell phone. I spoke with the 911 operator who took my info before I hung up. This had probably taken about 60 seconds.

At that moment, I see a blur passing my car. Someone had stopped their vehicle a short distance down the highway and was running back to the scene. The man ran straight past my car and went to the SUV.

I opened my car door and staggered to my feet. Standing just outside of the car door, I started shaking quite noticeably. Part of it was from the very cold temperature, but in retrospect I think mostly from the shock of the event. I was shaking so much that I reached back into my car to get my coat. By the time I put my coat on and looked up, I noticed a lady walking along the top of the snowbank near my car. I didn't comprehend it at that moment, but she was the driver from the SUV. (She was the lone occupant, and amazingly she was unhurt. Seat belts really make all the difference in the world...)

She turned to me and asked me if I was alright. I replied that I thought I was okay. I turned my head back to look at my car, and then turned back to her. I said "You know, this is probably not a very safe place for us to be right now."

At precisely that moment, I caught size of a white blur. Another sedan had come around the corner and hit the same patch of ice. It took spun out and came flying across the road towards us. The lady standing on the snowbank screamed and jumped away. The white sedan crashed into the snowbank at a 45 degree angle about a foot in front of my car causing no injuries. (my car and the SUV were probably only about 2 car lengths apart) Amazingly the white sedan had hit neither of our vehicles, just the snowbank.

A young lady got out and looked around at the crumpled and destroyed front end of my car. She quipped, "Did I do that?". I replied that amazingly no, she completely missed both of our vehicles. The young lady got back into her car, pulled out of the snowbank, and drove off.

Miscellaneous post accident thoughts/notes
- 6 cars slid on the ice and crashed in that immediate area in about a 10 minute span of time. The snow melt must have just frozen over within the few minutes leading up to my accident(s).
- It was very dangerous to remain in my car for so long after the crash. I think that if I had someone else in the car with me, I would have responded much more quickly to the situation to get our bodies away from the danger zone. As I was alone, I acted much more slowly. I don't know why I have this tendency.
- the man who had run back to the scene was actually the husband of the driver of the SUV (they were driving separate vehicles). I spoke a little with the man and he remarked that my comments about the accident were so similar to his wife's. Apparently, when she lost control of her SUV she thought she was going to die, and she saw my vehicle and also thought that she was going to kill not just herself but whoever was in my car.

Continuous repeat

2008-01-27T14:06:00.000-08:00

Desperately searching for someone who appreciates the concept of emergency jogging......

Optimism

2007-09-26T03:15:00.000-07:00

I feel very optimistic about my short and medium term poker prospects. I feel close to the top of my game (both cash games and tournaments) in many regards - game selection, psychological conditioning, hand reading, opponent profiling, playing endurance, etc. Each time I play, while there are still moderate numbers of missteps, I feel that I'm identifying and decreasing the frequency with which I repeat these errors.

I'm a much stronger player now than I was 6 months ago. I'm very proud of the work I have put into my game and the progress I have made. I sincerely hope that my future results can match my current enthusiasm.

I depart on Thursday for an 11 day trip to the Pot of Gold series in Reno. I likely won't be making any blogging updates until I return....

Pay off wizard

2007-09-23T03:55:00.000-07:00

Yes, the title describes me. I have to play better than this if I want to keep playing in the big game.

hand #1
live $100/$200 LHE, 10 handed
preflop: Hero raises UTG w KsKd, loose player (LP) calls, relative-newbie (RN) calls, muck, tight but tricky player (TP) calls, muck, muck, solid button calls, loose and bad SB calls, BB mucks (6 players, pot size 13 small bets)
flop: Qs9h6s, check, Hero bets, muck, RN calls, TP calls, muck, muck (3 players, pot size 16 small bets)
turn: Qs9h6s7c, Hero checks, RN bets, TP raises, Hero 3 bets, RN calls, TP calls (3 players, pot size 17 big bets)
river: Qs9h6s7c4s, Hero bets, RN calls, TP raises, Hero throws up and calls, RN mucks. TP tables As8s

The moment that TP raised the river, I immediately recognized what had happened on the turn. TP semi-bluff raised his A high to buy 2 outs in a big pot against my apparent AK. Despite "knowing" this I paid off to see the hand anyways.

When the spade came, I was supremely confident that RN was not on the flush draw, and I fell into the trap that TP had a top pair type hand. I really didn't think the hand through since TP will not call on the turn with a top pair/no redraw type hand in the face of such a strong turn 3 bet check raise from the preflop/flop leader.

The big game

2007-09-22T00:27:00.000-07:00

My LHE session today spanned a solid nine hours of play. It started in the $20/$40 game, transitioned to the $40/$80, and finished in the $100/$200 game (which is the highest stakes game in the room and city). I was able to play close to my A game for the majority of the session, although I found I was having difficultly concentrating (most easily detected by how my mind would often wander after I mucked and didn't follow the action of others) by the time I reached the main game in the $100. This made for a very easy decision to call it a day.

This was my first foray into the $100 game. I have been monitoring the $100 lineup closely over the last few days, and I have put my name up on the waiting list a couple of times when I thought the lineup looked favorable. The good lineup didn't pan out by the time I reached the head of the queue, on those occasions.

There is a moderate overlap of the player pool between the $100 and $40 games, and to an even smaller extent, into the $20 game as well. I am certainly aware that there are a number of soft spots in the $100 game, but I haven't done enough "data mining" to be able to identify more than a handful of these. However, this afternoon I clearly saw 3 very weak spots in the game with an additional 2 juicy call-ins on the board and quickly seized the opportunity to get into that game at a time when I had, relatively speaking, great table conditions and my maximum amount of opponent knowledge (meaning I had moderate amounts of prior table time with some of both the good and bad players at the table in lower stakes games, roughly about 3/4 of the players at the table).

The $100 feeder game was great until 2 really bad players went broke, 1 left after sucking out in a monster pot, and another left for dinner. The game actually became short handed, going down to as few as 3 players. After about half an hour of short handed play, I was moved to the main game. Hence, in my roughly 2.5 hours of $100 play, I was able to span the whole gamut of full ring loose play, short handed play with very strong players, short handed play with loose players, and the main game which had a majority of decent to very strong players. A fairly comprehensive experience all around; I really couldn't have asked for much more.

I did butcher a few hands, and shamefully, here they are:

hand #1 - Passive journey to Zero-valuetown
live $100/$200 LHE, 8 handed
preflop: Hero raises UTG w AsAd, loose player (LP1) cold calls, tight player (TP1) cold calls, mucked to loose player (LP2) in CO, button mucks, solid SB calls, strong player (SP1) calls in the BB (6 players, pot size 12 small bets)
flop: 7h7sTh, check, SP1 bets, Hero calls, LP1 calls, TP1 mucks, LP2 calls, SB mucks (4 players, pot size 16 small bets)
turn: 7h7sThJh, SP1 bets, Hero sees LP1 ready to muck, Hero calls, LP2 calls (3 players, pot size 11 big bets)
river: 7h7sThJh3d, SP1 bets, Hero raises, LP2 mucks, SP1 tanks and calls. SP1's 6 high flush is good

Hero calls on the flop to hopefully preserve the ability to have the field face 2 big bets cold on the turn (assuming a turn brick). On the actual turn, Hero is way behind the majority of SP1's turn betting range and calls to improve his pot odds by having callers behind. On the river, Hero loses his mind and makes a zero value raise despite being behind on the majority of SP's holdings (at least comfortable in the knowledge that SP1 will never 3 bet a worse hand). Not only is this a zero value bet, but additionally it typically means that Hero will have to reveal his hand to the table. What a bonehead move!!!

hand #2 - doubt on the river
live $40/$80 LHE, 8 handed
Villain is a strong semi-LAG who is a winning player in the $40 and $100 game, his open ranging range is fairly wide given his style and also the way the game has been playing for the last few orbits. Suited hands like K6s, Q8s, etc are easily in his range. He seems more aggressive preflop and on the flop, but less so on the later streets.
preflop: muck, Villain raises, mucked to loose CO who calls, muck, loose SB calls, Hero calls in BB w 7d7h (4 players, pot size 8 small bets)
flop: JdTs4d, check, check, Villain bets, CO mucks, SB mucks, Hero calls (2 players, pot size 10 small bets)
turn: JdTs4d5h, Hero bets, Villain calls (2 players, pot size 7 big bets)
river: JdTs4d5hQh, Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero tanks and mucks

On the flop, Hero's hand stands to be ahead of Villain's range. However, there are abundant draws on board. Hero calls and hopes to see a blank on the turn before making further commitment in the hand.

Turn is a blank, and Hero fires. Villain will never muck a worse hand here, and would always raise a better made hand (many of which would just be for a free showdown), but may also raise here as a total bluff. A call almost certainly means a worse hand with some type of draw. Straight draw, flush draw, perhaps a small pair and a flush draw. In retrospect, given this hand range, I believe the Villain will bet 100% of the time on the river regardless of the card when checked to.

The river brings a moderately scary card. However, it still really only improves the straight draw type combinations. Given the 8:1 pot odds, this should be an easy call down for Hero.

More two pair hands

2007-09-21T00:50:00.000-07:00

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Two pair hands are the bane of my LHE existence.

Here are 3 more from my session today.

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
preflop: muck, loose player (LP1) limps, muck, semi-lag limps, average player (AP) limps, button raises, loose player calls in SB, Hero calls in BB w KhJc, all call (6 players, pot size 12 small bets)
flop: Kd6h3d, blinds check, LP1 bets, muck, AP raises, button mucks, SB mucks, Hero cold calls, LP1 calls (3 players, pot size 18 small bets)
turn: Kd6h3dJs, check, check, AP bets, Hero raises, LP1 calls after a couple of seconds, AP immediately calls (3 players, pot size 15 big bets)
river: Kd6h3dJs4d, check, LP1 immediately bets, AP immediately calls, Hero mucks.

I keep telling myself not to muck hands as good as top two pair in big pots on the river closing the action. That is especially true since, given the action, AP's call means nothing other than giving Hero even better odds to make a crying call. At any rate, I lay the 17:1 that LP1 plays completely straight up, and fortunately LP1's flush is good.

I still don't like my laydown, and I'm going to give myself gray hairs or a receding hairline if I keep doing this.

hand #2
live $40/$80 LHE, 7 handed
button is an excellent player who's regular game is the $100/$200 game, but he is waiting for a seat in the $100 game. He has been at the table for about an hour, and has open raised from the hijack or better on 100% of the opportunities. Villain has been quite successful thus far in blind stealing (and in most cases was given some modest action without going past the turn too often) Hero has perhaps under-defended (although the specific number of incidents where Hero was BB was probably only 2. One which SB called and Hero mucked, and one in which both blinds called, but Hero check folded flop)
preflop: mucked to button, button raises, loose SB mucks, Hero calls in BB w AhKc (2 players, pot size 4.5 small bets)
flop: QcJd6h, Hero checks, button bets, Hero raises, button calls (2 players, pot size 8.5 small bets)
turn: QcJd6hAs, Hero checks, button bets, Hero raises, button calls (2 players, pot size 8.25 big bets)
river: QcJd6hAsKd, Hero bets, button raises, Hero calls. button's QdTc scoops.

Hero's preflop 3 betting range is going to be fairly wide. I would definitely 3 bet hands like AJo, ATs, 88-JJ. More premium hands, such as AKo, I had already pre-decided I would only call with to hide the strength of my hand.

Postflop, I planned to check/call the flop and turn if I flopped top pair as my pot equity against his range would be huge. Instead I flopped a gutshot and 2 overcards, and decided to check raise the flop given that my pot equity is probably more in the 60/40 range, and I'd prefer to end the hand on the flop or turn. Given that Villain calls the flop, I put his range on at least 1 pair or a draw.

Turn, I like this card as I represented no strength preflop, and a relatively meaningless check raise (i.e. any pair) on the flop. The A looks like a great scare card for Villain to represent. Hence, I try and successfully get a CR in. Villain's call on the turn likely means he has a pair and a draw.

On the river, I definitely wanted to see a blank. However, I improve and have a choice between check/call and bet/call. check/fold and bet/fold are out of the question. I elect to take the higher volatility bet/call line. I don't know if this was best.

hand #3
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
preflop: muck, muck, bad player limps, muck, Hero raises w AsTs, muck, semi-tight button 3 bets, SB mucks, loose BB calls, both call (4 players, pot size 12.5 small bets)
flop: Th9c4s, check, check, Hero bets, button raises, BB mucks, bad player calls, Hero thinks for 2-3 seconds, Hero 3 bets, both call (3 players, pot size 21.5 small bets)
turn: Ts9c4s3d, check, Hero bets, button calls, bad player mucks (2 players, pot size 12.75 big bets)
river: Ts9c4s3dAc, Hero bets, button raises, Hero mutters "crap, was I drawing dead?" and makes a crying call. 3 players observing the hand all call out to button "AT is good!!!". button shows AQo, Hero straightens out his skirt and stacks the chips.

My hand reading skills are just awful on the river. Against this opponent, and the flop and turn action (including the existence of the bad player) I'm never getting less than half this pot. Clearly one big missed value bet.

One other observation about this particular hand. It occurred towards the 8-9 hour mark of the session (with essentially no breaks), so probably fatigue was a factor. Given that the $40 game is a must move setup, periodically switching games (including optionally taking breaks between this games) is typically not convenient (particularly when some juicy players are next up for the main game). Additionally, this poker room charges a $5 lobby charge per round if you sit out of the game. This factor causes me to take very few breaks when playing the $40 game.

I think I need to come up with a better plan for how to take sufficient breaks in a reasonably $ wise manner.

Sleepy and the maniac

2007-09-19T22:43:00.000-07:00

I played a lengthy 10.5 hour session today. It was actually not one continuous session because I initially started in the $40/$80 LHE game, and then dropped back to the $20/$40 game when the forward/reverse/current line severely declined. When the lineup improved, I moved back.

For the entirety of the day, I was in the black. Not substantially so...about a rack and a half. I usually don't talk about results like this, but I only mention it in this context to clarify that stuck-induced tilt was not a factor in the 2 hands I will describe below. (although perhaps tilt might be a factor in the 2nd hand).

In the first hand I make a few minor, but simple mistakes. In the 2nd, I make the granddaddy of LHE mistakes.

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 8 handed
SB is a strong winning player in the $40 game, who is very good at maximizing value from his hands. BB and CO are a loose players.
preflop: muck, Hero raises w KcQc, mucked to CO who calls, muck, blinds call (4 players, pot size 8 small bets)
flop: KdKh2c, blinds check, Hero bets, CO mucks, SB calls, BB mucks (2 players, pot size 10 small bets)
turn: KdKh2c4c, SB bets, Hero thinks for a couple of seconds, takes a tall enough stack for 2 bets but then only cuts out enough chips for a call (2 players, pot size 7 big bets)
river: KdKh2c4c8s, SB bets, Hero thinks for a few seconds, Hero raises, SB immediately 3 bets, Hero makes a crying call. SB's AKo is good.

SB's combined preflop and flop range is 22, Kxs, and KXo (where X is A or Q). Since SB's K rag holdings are always suited, there is no way he has K's full on the flop or turn.

It certainly makes more sense for Hero to raise the turn, I really can't justify not raising. At any rate, given the turn action, then consider the river. A river raise is definitely justified for value, however I think that Hero's river line must be raise/fold vs. this opponent. This Villain is never raising the river with a hand that does not beat KQ. (Interestingly, given the turn mistake by Hero, it should be possible for Hero to save 1 big bet on the river; i.e. if Hero raises turn, Villain will always 3 bet and bet the river; In that case, I think Hero has to call down since Villain may put Hero on a hand like AcQc)

The 2nd hand occurred right at the end of the session (10.5 hours). I left as soon as the big blind reached me, and I'm certain that this was the right metagame decision.

hand #2
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
UTG has a fairly loose limping range, UTG+1 just came to the table this orbit, is fairly LAGgy and has already stated her intention that this will be her only round at the table (but has been playing a lot of pots with the intention of winning as many pots as possible before she leaves)
preflop: UTG limps, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3 bets w AsTs, mucked back to UTG, both call (3 players, pot size 10.5 small bets)
flop: Tc7s5h, check, check, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3 bets, both call (3 players, pot size 19.5 small bets)
turn: Tc7s5hJs, check, check, Hero bets, both call (3 players, pot size 12.75 big bets)
river: Tc7s5hJsAd, check, UTG+1 bets, Hero thinks for 2 seconds, Hero raises, UTG mucks, UTG+1 thinks for 1 second and says "I don't think you 3 bet with 98", and then UTG+1 reraises, Hero immediately mucks. UTG+1 shows Ah7h and is 100% sure her hand was good.

During the duration of the hand, I was somewhat tired. I didn't keep a running track of the pot size (which I always do when I am alert). All of my actions in the hand were automatic, including my muck on the river to the 3 bet. I absolutely felt that UTG+1 was very confident about her hand. I didn't consider that she could feel comfortable reraising with a worse hand. I didn't even take a few seconds to agonize over whether or not to make a crying call.

** edit ** one other factor that I didn't mention is that about 1.5 hours earlier when I was in the same feeder game as the Villain (UTG+1) , Villain had rivered me 4-5 times, and I had paid off on each occasion. (by either calling when in position or check calling out of position). In other words, I had given this Villain no reason to suspect that I could be bluffed out of a pot.

Sigh... 17.75 big bets is not pocket change. This was a $40 game. That is some people's monthly nut.

I'm not sure how carefully the other regulars in the game were watching during this hand, but for those that were watching, I'm sure at least most of them would suspect, that given the action in the hand, that I mucked the winner on the river. This type of occurrence is a terrible metagame factor. In fact, I am definitely considering playing in another cardroom for at least a few days until this hand drops out of people's memory. I definitely don't want people taking a shot at me in big pots by pure bluff raising the river.

Getting paid off with tougher players

2007-09-19T08:43:00.000-07:00

One problem that I am spending a lot of time worrying about lately is how to get paid off the maximum when playing in pots with particularly tough players. (The issue doesn't contradict with game selection issues as I've been doing a good job of this, but the good games still often feature a number of tough players.)

I have a pretty big tell on the later streets. Whenever I 3 bet the turn or raise the river, I have a very big hand. I honestly can't recall the last time I have done so without a hand at least as good as top two pair. Against all but the loosest players, I will have probably 5th nuts or better.

This behavior is hard to miss by my opponents. Even the weaker opponents will notice this, but the reason they pay off is just to see what I have. Tougher players simply don't do this.

It should be very easy to counter this: Simply balance more bluffs, semibluffs and slowplays.

This is an example of a hand that I wish I had taken a little differently on the turn:

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 8 handed
Villain is a very tough player who thinks at several levels.
preflop: mucked to Hero in MP, Hero raises w 6d6h, mucked to Villain in CO who calls, everyone else mucks (2 players, pot size 5.5 small bets)
flop: 6c4dQh, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero pauses for 1 second, Hero 3 bets (2 players, pot size 11.5 small bets)
turn: 6c4dQhQs, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero pauses for 1 second, Hero 3 bets, CO mucks

Preflop range for Villain is difficult to narrow down.

Flop action is pretty standard. Hero's 3 bet clearly indicates that Hero has at least a high pair (say 99+).

The turn is definitely the most interesting street. Villain's turn raise can be for one of 3 reasons: i) raising for value with a big, but worse hand, such as trips or 44 ii) raising for free showdown with some medium strength hand e.g. AA, KK, 88, iii) a complete bluff (the board is completely dry with no draws).
Note: Given the preflop action, Hero's hand will always be good here vs. Villain's range on this board.

For the first category (i), Villain will shut down, but will call down UI. For the 2nd (ii) and 3rd (iii) categories, Villain will immediately muck. The number of combinations for (ii) and (iii) compared to (i) is larger, but not substantially so. Perhaps 2:1 would be a good estimate.

A line that I think would work far better on the turn would be to only call the turn raise, and then lead the river. (In my mind, Hero's hand looks something like JJ, KK or AA.)

Very little value is lost with this line vs category (i), as Villain is still likely to raise/call the river (which gets more bets in the pot vs. 3 betting the turn, although this is somewhat balanced with the times that Villain only calls on the river and also the times he raise/folds making a great laydown with a hand like QJs and also the times Villain improves to a better hand).

With category (ii), Villain is often going to make a crying call, which increases the value although ~10% of the time Hero gets outdrawn (Villain improves to better full house) and absolutely must pay off given the way the hand is played.

Most importantly, with category (iii), Villain will occasionally raise to "outplay" the Hero. No value is lost by only calling the turn raise, as Villain is drawing dead. I strongly suspect that the biggest gain in value in taking the turn call/river lead line comes from this scenario.

Tough session

2007-09-18T21:52:00.000-07:00

Today I played a moderate length (by my standards) $40/$80 LHE session of about 9 hours. It was challenging and draining.

In Limit Hold'em, there are often hands in which you raise preflop with a big pocket pair or big Ace and flop an overpair or TPTK and just bet all the way for value against one or even a few opponents and just get called down by worse hands (or until the river when they miss). No thinking required. In the 9 hour session, this scenario occurred exactly ~1~ lousy time.

I think I need to monitor more closely my emotional and psychological state, as these balances get drained more quickly when a session involves more thinking and tougher situations. The negative result that typically emerges as a consequence is that I play more hands preflop. This just ends up getting me in more and more difficult postflop situations when I do things like open raise UTG or UTG+1 with hands like AJo, KJo or be the 2nd or 3rd cold caller with a hand like K9s or T8s (when the hand only ends up being 4 or 5 handed to the flop)

When I get too drained, I need to end my session regardless of the players in the game. Instead of feeling compelled to stay in a "good" game, I should more broadly consider how to make decisions in the overall session to drain less of my mental and emotional energy. Also, in the overall picture, I should take steps to lead a healthy lifestyle (sufficient sleep, diet, exercise) to bolster my stamina.

Here are two hands from today's session that I wanted myself to review:

The first hand involved me forgetting some crucial piece of information from an earlier street. The second hand just relates to tilt, and how easily it causes me to make poor decisions (and not factor earlier "decisions" I made in the hand to the ones I have to make on later streets)

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 7 handed.
Hijack is probably a (28/20/1.5); SB is Hero, BB is probably (25/10/2.0); both opponents are sane and thinking opponents
preflop: mucked to Hijack, Hijack raises, muck, muck, Hero calls in SB w As8s, BB calls (3 players, pot size 6 small bets)
flop: Kd8h4c, check, check, Hijack bets, Hero raises, BB calls, Hijack calls (3 players, pot size 12 small bets)
turn: Kd8h4cKh, Hero bets, BB immediately raises, Hijack mucks, Hero tanks for ~2 seconds and calls (2 players, pot size 10 big bets)
river: Kd8h4cKhQs, check, check

Firstly, regarding the preflop decision. Hero should definitely be more inclined to 3 bet in this situation. However, semi-recently in the session, Hero had been caught 3 betting fairly light in the SB and BB so this is a small excuse for not 3 betting. (although perhaps this could just be an argument for mucking preflop and avoiding a complicated postflop situation)

On this flop, given the number of players at the table and the actual 3 players in the hand, BB will CR 3 bet close to 100% of the time with any K. Big hands that BB will slow play are a set (88 and 44) and top 2 pair. It is less clear with what frequency BB will raise with 2nd pair; it might depend on the kicker. With a PP between K and 8, BB will raise close to 100% of the time as well as with bottom 2 pair.

Given this flop range for BB, a substantial number of hands that BB will raise the turn with are worse than Hero's (the raise is positional and defensive, with the intention of knocking out Hijack and getting a free showdown). Given that the pot already has 9BB in it when Hero faces the turn raise and Villain's range, my thought (granted, this may be influenced by actual results, and this is a big part about why I am taking the time to write out the hand history) is that Hero should 3 bet the turn with the intention of folding to a 4 bet and also not putting in another bet on the river unless a K or 8 hits. This line doesn't cost any more than just calling down.

BB has to be as worried as Hero is about the K (if he is not already filled up). If BB has a worse 8, then calling gives BB a free card to hit his 3 out kicker and another 3 outs (8 or K) to chop (blending these together is essentially the same thing as saying the Villain has 4.5 outs). BB has to automatically fold to a 3 bet with only an 8. Assuming Villain has A8 (granted this is unlikely because Villain is extremely likely to 3 bet this holding on the flop), it is a big victory to win an extra half of the pot. It is a huge victory if he folds a better hand like 99.

It is also possible that BB will only call with 4s full, in which case Hero does not get punished and still can draw to 4 outs.

Anyway, the result of the hand was that BB held Q8o and scooped the pot. I'm actually surprised that BB didn't value bet the river. I think if Villain had been more alert, he would not have missed this bet. I guess he was just happy he got his free showdown and I didn't hold some K rag holding.

hand #2
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
Hero was on tilt prior to this hand, although opponents may or may not be aware of this.
preflop: semi-solid UTG limps, mucked to Hero in Hijack, Hero raises w AsAh, Loose CO 3 bets, button calls, SB mucks, UTG calls, Hero 4 bet caps, all call (5 players, pot size 20.5 small bets)
flop: Ad9d4c, check, UTG bets, Hero calls, CO calls, button raises, BB mucks, UTG 3 bets, Hero caps, CO mucks, button and UTG call (3 players, pot size 33.5 small bets)
turn: Ad9d4c6d, check, check, button bets, UTG mucks, Hero calls (2 players, pot size 18.75 big bets)
river: Ad9d4c6d3d, check, button bets, Hero mucks.

Yes, I mucked on the river getting 19.75:1 with a set (on a 4 flush board). I mucked because I was on tilt. My hand is probably good here considerably less than 10% of the time, but I think I need to make what is at least close to a 0EV call on the river for metagame reasons. Yes, my hand is so clearly defined. However, my preflop and flop 4 bets, which so strongly help to define my hand, extracted enough value to pay off here on this river. In other words, the decision I made on the early streets to extract value (at the cost of defining my hand) should determine my decision to call down despite the awful board.

Why What How

2007-09-17T00:43:00.001-07:00

"What I need is someone who will make me do what I can" Ralph Waldo Emerson

I don't know why it is, but this is me in a nutshell. I have always been this way. I suppose I always will....

Need a break

2007-09-16T15:00:00.001-07:00

The quick version of this post is that today's result was not a happy ending. For the longer version, keep reading....

Going into today's final event (multiple rebuy), I was in 7th place in the points race. Mathematically, only 2nd place was possible. By the end of the 2nd break, only 2 other players are also capable of finishing 2nd (my partner, J, busted during the 2nd hour, so it was only on me at this point). By the 3rd break, only 1 other player was in the running.

With 23 players remaining (top 18 places pay $ and earn points; I need 4th place or better to earn enough points to get 2nd place in all around top player), I'm presented with the following scenario:

- Hero UTG
- Hero has 8% of the chips in play, but still only 13xbb
- Table is 7 handed, BB has 10xbb, UTG+1 has 10xbb, CO has 9xbb (and taken a bad beat 2 hands earlier), everyone else is 5xbb or less.
- Hero has been moderately active including open raising 2.75xbb on the immediately prior hand and successfully stealing the blinds.
- Hero and BB have a lot of history, and despite Hero's early position, BB is likely to have a substantially large range for re-raising all-in to a preflop raise from Hero. (probably 66+, ATs+, AJo+). i.e. it is perfectly believable to the BB that I would try to steal his BB even from UTG in the position of table chip leader because of all of our banter and interaction over the last few days.
- UTG+1 and Hero have little direct history (though I have carefully observed his play) except for 1 hand roughly 1 orbit ago when Hero open raised 2.7xbb from SB. Villain defended his BB, and Hero pushed on QJ8 flop to which Villain folded. UTG+1 is a very loose player - his preflop playing range is (22+, A2s+, A5o+, any two broadways, probably 87s+), his preflop reraising range is probably (88+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs+). He is capable of bluffing, and he doesn't like to get pushed around. He is not a sophisticated or knowledgeable player.

Surprisingly to me, I received substantial criticism for the way I played this key pot. I suspect that many of the commentors didn't really think that carefully about the hand and the situation, but at any rate, here is the hand:

hand #1
7 handed, NLHE MTT near the bubble, Hero has 13xbb, Villain has 10xbb
preflop: Hero raises 2.75xbb w AdAc, Villain thinks for 10-15 seconds and calls, everyone else mucks (2 players, pot size 7xbb)
flop: Jd4h3c, check, check (2 players, pot size 7xbb)
turn: Jd4h3c2h, Hero pushes, Villain insta calls.

I'm happy with how I played this hand, and J absolutely agreed with me. At any rate, Villain turned a straight with As5s and improves to a 6 high straight on the river.

Given our history and his tendencies, I don't mind giving a free card on this flop. On any more coordinated flop, I would have insta-pushed. Given that Villain checked the flop, I think I have to bet the turn.

During the rest of the tournament, I was lucky. I had exactly 4 coin flips in big pots, and I won all of them.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

I've been putting in substantial table hours for the last 10 days, probably averaging about 9 table hours per day. (which I'm happy to say that easily more than 7 hours per day I was playing my A game) I am somewhat exhausted, and probably need a day or so to recover. Reno's Pot of Gold series starts in 11 days, and I hope to be in good shape for that. In the meantime, I will continue to grind away at the cash games. Also there is a nice monthly $330 MTT at another local poker room (that I have never been to) coming up on Saturday that apparently draws a nice field, and it has a good structure. I intend to enroll in that one.

Thing that made me go hmmmm?

2007-09-14T21:52:00.001-07:00

I'm always the first to laugh out loud when people spew conspiracy theories regarding the fairness of the dealt cards in public card rooms that utilize Shufflemaster machines. However, today I saw a hand that had me literally laughing out loud for the better part of an hour. It is a hand that I will long remember.

The reason the hand is so conspiratorial is that the Villain in this hand is the father of the owner of this public cardroom. I would estimate that this poker room is probably in the top 10 largest (definitely top 15) poker rooms in the USA, so it is no small mom and pop operation.

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
MP is quite LAGGY, MP+2 is a fairly solid player, but always makes adjustments for LAGs. BB is the Villain, and he is typically super solid.
preflop: muck, UTG+1 limps, MP raises, muck, MP+2 3 bets, mucked around to BB (Hero mucks some random hand in the SB), BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP calls (4 players, pot size 12.5 small bets)
flop: Ad6c8h, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP bets, MP+2 raises, BB calls, UTG+1 mucks, MP calls (3 players, pot size 18.5 small bets)
turn: Ad6c8h4c, BB checks, MP checks, MP+2 bets, both call (3 players, pot size 12.25 big bets)
river: Ad6c8h4c7s, BB bets, MP mucks, MP+2 calls; BB's 5c2d is good.

nh sir!! flop 12 outs to a gutshot, 4 to an OESD, and 6 outs to a two pair or trips draw. Whee poker!

I consider myself very lucky to have been there to witness this hand. I would absolutely NEVER believe this if heard 2nd hand.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

In today's NLHE MTT, I busted late in the 3rd round in an unavoidable QQ vs AA situation. No points today, so just two events left. The weekend events are bound to be huge. Time to run good....

Late stage blowup

2007-09-14T06:15:00.000-07:00

In yesterday's event, I cashed for the minimal amount in 10th place (10th-18th pay an identical nominal amount) for the final table bubble in a very poor spot. I've made this mistake plenty of times probably because the majority of the time, I don't get punished for it. This was a sobering reminder of poor risk reward decision making at very critical times.

- the table was 5 handed
- average stack was 8.5xbb
- Hero in CO has the table barely covered w 11.75xbb; SB 11xbb; BB 10xbb; UTG 7xbb; button 7xbb
- Hero has not been particularly active since the table redraw for the final 2 tables
- no players are playing particularly wild or crazy
- Hero open pushes in CO w 7s7c

I think I tend to do this to avoid having to make any decision when re-raised, but on this occasion the ugly scenario of SB (AKo) and BB (KK) both having big hands arose.

It is 5 handed, so I like my hand. Given the playing conditions a 2.5xbb raise gets the job done. I will very likely call a push from a single opponent, particularly the shorter stack button. The only beneficial scenarios for pushing vs a small raise is if the BB would call a small raise given the situation with 2 overs that he would have mucked to a push. I hadn't observed the BB to be playing this way; I would expect this particular player in the BB to have either mucked or pushed.

Anyway, with a small raise, if there is action from 2 or more opponents, I am done with the hand (unless I am just called and flop a set). Sigh, sloppy play gets punished...

From the points I received yesterday, I should be in about 5th place in the overall standings. 1st place is still mathematically in reach with 3 events to go, but realistically even catching up to 2nd place would a great result considering the overall leader's point count. (Top 5 places pay)

Points race

2007-09-12T23:00:00.000-07:00

I lasted a whole 8 hands in today's event. I slept in and arrived a few minutes late, missing the first 4 hands. Yes, this is my blog, so I'll tell my bad beat story since I found it amusing.

4 hands later, I make a modest overbet reraise w QQ (to a limp/raise/call) from the BB putting in half my stack. Limper and original raiser muck, caller tanks for a while and asks "how many chips do you have left?". I say nothing but move my hands out of the way; my immediate neighbor comments "he has the original starting stack, he hasn't played a hand". Caller muses for a few more seconds "hmmm, raise, call, big reraise. Aces or kings?" then calls. Flop comes J high with 2 rags with 2 to the flush.
I pick up my stack and am just about to start moving it forward, Caller picks up his stack and starts moving it forward. I think he is doing one of those fake calls to dissuade me from pushing, so I push (which I was going to do anyways). He beats me in the pot. I'm sick to my stomach expecting him to turn up AA or JJ. I flip over my cards, but my hand slips and only one card turns over. Caller immediately and cheerfully remarks "Oh, Queens are good". T on the turn, and its over. With poker, sudden surprised joy can last a very short period of time.

Anyway, no points earned today, so I possibly dropped out of the top 10. 4 more events to go, and the current leader is intending to miss the next 2 events. I decided today to do a swap with another player who has only slightly less points than me. Hopefully, at least one of us can have a few good cashes in the last few events. I don't know why I care so much, but I certainly am emotionally invested in this.

2 more hands

2007-09-12T21:56:00.000-07:00

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 7 handed
BB is young asian player with whom I have had no history other than 2-3 orbits.
preflop: mucked to Hero in CO, Hero raises w Jh9d, mucked to BB who calls (2 players, pot size 4.5 small bets)
flop: KcTs9h, check, check (2 players, pot size 4.5 small bets)
turn: KcTs9h7d, BB bets, Hero tanks and calls (2 players, pot size 4.25 big bets)
river: KcTs9h7dJs, BB checks, Hero bets, BB tanks forever and calls. Hero's 2 pair is good.

Open raising in the CO with J9o is outside of the recommended stealing range in Stox's book (although it is in the button's range), however that is a matter beyond the scope of this hand discussion.

At the time this hand was dealt, we are at the main game of a must move setup; hence the players ~may~ be in the game for extended periods of time; additionally the table is a little quiet because there are only 7 people where 1 person is lobbying and 1 person just left and the must move player has not yet arrived. The players at the table are, on average, paying more attention to the play than usual.

My line of play for this hand could certainly be questioned, however this was my thinking: On the flop, I elected to balance my play (such that I am cbetting the flop about 90% of the time in position; ). The intention was to check the flop, and raise a turn rag. The reasoning is that I expect that when cbetting the flop, I will be getting CR'd a very very substantial amount of the time on this board (80%+) with a blend of hands that are better and worse than my own.

Checking behind on the flop and raising the turn puts the same number of bets in the pot as bet/calling the flop and calling (or betting) the turn. However, it conveys more strength, and it may cause a better hand to fold the turn or river. (a T or a better 9 such as Q9 if the river is a brick). A safe turn card would be deuce through 6 (20 cards, or a little less than half the deck).

Additionally, an A turn card will frequently be more of a scare card.

The actual turn card presented an addition gutshot (now Hero has a double gutter), and this changes things. Hero now has more ways to improve, Villain may have improved. Hero calls the turn with the intention of calling or betting the river.

Finally, considering that Hero's hand is shown down, my future play has to be adjusted to compensate for adjustments that my opponents will be making in the short term. Essentially, tighten up preflop raising range.

hand #2
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
UTG is a semi-LAG, BB and button are absolutely terrible (with BB frequently making terrible raises or bluffs), the other players in the hand are reasonable and experienced, although somewhat loose.
preflop: UTG raises, Hero 3 bets w 8h8d, mucked to CO who calls, button calls, SB calls, BB caps its, everyone calls (6 players, pot size 24 small bets)
flop: KhQh8c, SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, call, call, call, UTG 3 bets, everyone calls (6 players, 42 small bets)
turn: KhQh8c4s, check, check, UTG bets, Hero raises, muck, CO calls, muck, BB calls, UTG 3 bets, everyone calls (4 players, 33 big bets)
river: KhQh8c4s5d, check, UTG bets, Hero calls, muck, BB calls. UTG's KK is naturally good.

I suppose that preflop call or 3 bet are both reasonable decisions. At the time, I felt that UTG was a little frustrated and may be open raising considerably lighter than normal.

On the turn during the actual hand, I really considered that I can safely fold to UTG's 3 bet. UTG is LAGgy, but he is never 3 betting the turn after all the previous action with KQ.

I was actually getting a little tired when this hand was played, and lost track of the pot size (other than the fact that it was huge). Hero is looking at a 32:1 shot at a 1 outer. Hmmmm, given the action, the maximum implied odds is probably 40? (+8 bets on the river; UTG bet, Hero raise, BB calls, UTG 3 bet, Hero caps, both call) Wow, I didn't even realize until now the turn call was so close to 0EV.

Probably the strongest argument for calling down on the river is that mucking would have a substantial change in Hero's table image. There would be a substantially likelihood that there would be increased bluff raises and tough semi-bluffs in this session.

Weak late street play?

2007-09-12T20:43:00.000-07:00

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
UTG semi-loose passive ~(22/5/0.5)
MP is loose semi aggressive player ~(30/15/0.8)
preflop: UTG raises, mucked to MP, MP 3 bets, mucked to Hero in SB, Hero 4 bet caps w QdQh, BB mucks, UTG and MP call (3 players, pot size 13 small bets)
flop: Ac5d4s, Hero bets, UTG mucks, MP calls (2 players, pot size 15 small bets)
turn: Ac5d4sJd, Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls (2 players, pot size 9.5 big bets)
river: Ac5d4sJdTc, Hero checks, MP bets, Hero mucks

The flop line seems standard - continuation and value bet. UTG's preflop range is (99+, AQs+,AKo) and MP's preflop 3 bet range is probably something like (88+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs). If the turn and river bring rags, Hero should bet all the way.

On the actual turn, Hero's hand still looks very much like JJ+. The conundrum is that Hero is usually far behind against Villain's range, yet weakness can be exploited by Villain's worse hands if Hero is not committed to showdown. A check on the turn is essentially conceding Hero's range to be QQ-KK (and Villain is not a frequent enough player that Hero can achieve balance by occasionally checking the turn OOP with a set here)

As played, Hero's river decision is to consider whether Villain will call the flop with 99 and/or 88 and is capable of firing 2 bullets on the turn and river.
vs. a range of (99+,AJs+,AQo+), a river muck costs Hero -0.78BB.
vs. a range of (88+,AJs+,AQo+), a river mucks costs Hero -1.99BB.
vs. a range of (TT+,AJs+,AQo+), a river mucks saves Hero 0.84BB.

Seemingly an easier line to take would be for Hero to bet/fold the turn and check/fold the river UI. (although against the wrong opponents, this will too frequently be exploited)

In the actual hand, I called on the turn with the intention of calling on the river to induce a bluff from worse hands in this standard way ahead/way behind scenario. The Tc is another scare card for me, and Villain did visually look comfortable when he bet. Hence the muck.

overlay/underlay

2007-09-11T23:16:00.001-07:00

I'm currently in the midst of a series of Hold'em tournaments at a local poker room (10 events total). I decided to play all of the events as there is a separate pool of allocated money for best all-around player. Points are awarded for the players at the last 2 tables. The points race makes for a wee bit more interest nearing the bubble and final table.

Winning the points race is about equivalent to a 2nd or 3rd place cashing in one of the daily events. There are still 5 more events, so I need to manage my sleep correctly as I'm also trying to get in a healthy amount of cash game table hours in.

In the case of this series, the points race money comes from a percentage of the prize pool buyins, so it is really an underlay for anyone playing just a few events.

At the end of the month, I intend to go to Reno for 10 days for the Pot of Gold series at the Grand Sierra. Again, there is a best all-around player race, so I'll play every event here as well (18 point-earning events) The prize pool for the points race is true overlay.

oops

2007-09-09T23:49:00.000-07:00

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
Hero has been at the table for about an hour and has not been caught getting out of line, and has only been moderately active. UTG and SB see a moderate number of flops, and often call very lightly on the flop to see how much of a fight their opponents put in contesting the pot. Both are capable of being tricky. Both players are winning players in the $40 game. BB is a very tight player.
preflop: UTG limps, mucked to Hero in CO, Hero raises w QhTh, button mucks, SB calls, BB mucks, UTG calls (3 players, pot size 7 small bets)
flop: AdKh5c, check, check, Hero bets, both call (3 players, pot size 10 small bets)
turn: AdKh5cAh, check, check, Hero bets, both call (3 players, pot size 8 big bets)
river: AdKh5dAh6c, check, check, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG check raises, Hero mucks, SB looks disgusted and calls with his KK, UTG's AA are, of course, good.

Against the majority of opponents, I check behind on the turn. However, vs. these opponents I think I have to bet here for metagame considerations. In general, I don't want to be contesting pots with only these types of opponents. However, the table line up had been varying throughout the day, and such hands and situations happen from time to time.

My river bet UI is a total spew with these 2 turn callers given the flop and turn texture and action, and may be a spew with even 1 turn caller.

The only decision in the hand that I dislike (when balancing both current hand and metagame considerations) is the river bet. It is a really, really bad bet. How did I get hypnotized into firing that 3rd hopeless bullet?

Another tradeoff between check/crying call vs. bet/call in a big pot

2007-09-02T10:22:00.000-07:00

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
Hijack is an extremely clueless loose chaser (I have no history with Hijack, but in the 5 minutes since I sat down, the player on my right had twice exasperatedly remarked that Hijack calls with anything) with unknown bluffing tendencies, CO is a TAG, Button is unknown, BB is a very loose player who likes to play ATC.
preflop: mucked to Hijack who limps, CO raises, Button 3 bets, Hero caps w JhJs, BB tanks and grudgingly mucks, everyone else calls (4 players, pot size 17 small bets)
flop: 5c2h9s, Hero bets, all call (4 players, pot size 21 small bets)
turn: 5c2h9s3s, Hero bets, Hijack calls, CO calls, Button mucks (3 players, pot size 13.5 big bets)
river: 5c2h9s3s4d, checked around. Hero tables his JJ, Hijack and CO shake their heads, Button curses himself for mucking his A high (he didn't notice his gutshot on the turn; this was a great game!), other players at the table marvel that JJ held up. The dealer starts gathering together the pot. Hero drops a tip on the JJ and pushes it towards the dealer. Hijack finally tosses his hand, but face up, not face down. 5d6d. The dealer lets him know he won the pot.

Reason #195 to bet the river: Moron cannot read his own hand

I didn't bet the river because I know CO well. CO would never bluff the river here without an A, and I intended to check/fold if CO bet, but check/call if Hijack bet. A little while later, I did learn that Hijack was such a calling station that he may have called on the river anyways, although betting was still my only chance of winning.

That sinking feeling...

2007-08-31T08:06:00.000-07:00

I played this hand extremely weakly (haha, because I had that funny feeling), and a player I greatly respect (who was at the table, but not involved in the hand) feels strongly that I cannot overcall the river. I don't know if I can agree with that, so here is the hand for future reflection:

hand #1
live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
UTG is a loose player, capable of firing multiple bluffs if he senses weakness, but will also make thin value bets
Poster and Button are unknown players;
preflop: Poster is posting between the Buttton and the SB; UTG limps, mucked to Button, Button raises, Poster calls, SB mucks, Hero calls in BB w KhJh, UTG calls (4 players, pot size 8.5 small bets)
flop: AsAdTs, checked around (4 players, pot size, 8.5 small bets)
turn: AsAdTsQd, Poster checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, button calls, Poster calls, Hero calls (4 players, pot size 8.25 big bets)
river: AsAdTsQd6d, Poster checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, button calls, Poster calls, Hero shakes his head dejectedly and calls; UTG says, "I have an A but there is no way I win". Button tables his QQ, Poster mucks without showing.

Personally, I like my turn and river lines just fine. All the value for my hand gets bet (as could readily be expected) by the opponent on my immediate left. I have a showdown hand, and I get to close the action. I really can't see how I can muck on the river with no history from Button and the Poster. From my perspective, the more questionable decision is am I losing much value by not CR the turn?

BTW, the commentor on the hand claims I should have been able to read that Button had QQ when he called the river? WTF?? (The commentor is often a far better hand reader than me, so maybe I'm missing some visual clue. I'll have to follow up with him...)

Weak and bad check/fold

2007-08-29T23:37:00.000-07:00

hand #1
live $20/$40 LHE, 7 handed
UTG is a winning semi-TAG player, Hijack is the big fish in the game; consistently calls multiple bets all the way with his runner runner draws. A few times an hour, he makes outrageous river bluff bets (not raises).
preflop: UTG raises, muck, Hijack calls, CO calls, Button and SB muck, Hero calls in BB w 4h5h (4 players, pot size 8.5 small bets)
flop: 4cQsQh, Hero checks, UTG bets, Hijack calls, CO mucks, Hero calls (3 players, pot size 11.5 small bets)
turn: 4cQsQh8d, Hero bets, UTG mucks, Hijack calls (2 players, pot size 7.75 big bets)
river: 4cQsQh8d8s, Hero check/folds.

My friend sitting in Hijack + 1 seat told me he saw Hijack hand's as he mucked: 43o

The river situation is a hopeless one where Villain automatically calls with A high, possibly calls with K high, and calls with any pair (even counterfeited ones like PP smaller than 77, 4s, etc); also Villain will randomly call if he is interested in seeing my hand.

What is Hero's best river play? I just don't see how Hero can profitably put in any money on the river.

(btw, I really really have to get out of the habit of automatically mucking my hand when I feel very sure I am beaten when called on the river)

Final table blow up

2007-08-29T20:40:00.000-07:00

During the last week and a half, the large poker room in my area has been holding a series of moderate size Hold'em tournaments ($340->$2080 buyins with field sizes between 100-200 runners). The room holds two large series of tournaments each year, one of which centers on a WPT event running during the beginning of the year and another series that runs in the late summer/early fall.

For whatever reason, the organizers scheduled this year's events at the same time as the running of the Bike's Legends of Poker. In my opinion, because of this, the fields were much softer because the majority of the quality mid-stakes live tournament pros (who will play in live MTTs with buyin's of $2k or less) in this region of the country gravitated to the Bike.

In this series, I finished with a respectable showing. Of the 8 events I entered, I made it to the last 2 tables on 7 occasions, and had a top ten showing in 4 (unfortunately with no wins). I feel that my style of play was strong vs. some targeted weak and/or conservative opponents near the bubble resulting in, among other things, an above average number of walks in my big blind which measurably helped in getting to the final table. Also, in the early/mid stages of the tournament, I think I took some prudent risks - slow plays vs. the right opponents, making borderline coin flip type calls where losing the coinflip would not cripple me, but winning the coin flip would give me enable me to have a wider range of options given my table conditions (along with the metagame influence that make conservative players more wary about getting involved in pots with me without a big hand - at which time, I can just muck; This is the classic scenario about "taking the initiative" -> make them worry about you, and not the other way around).

A problem that I have had throughout my entire poker tournament career is my failure to get consistent and adequate sleep prior to big tournaments or over a prolonged series of tournaments. Despite this being a local tournament in which I would be sleeping in the comfort of my own home, this problem again reared its ugly head. My nightly average of actual sleep was somewhere in the range of 4.5 hours for the last 10 days. (playing too much cash games after busting out of the daily MTT was a definite factor here as well)

Perhaps fatigue was a factor contributing to my unimaginable semibluff decision from my bustout hand of today's final event - $550 Shorthanded (6 max) NLHE:

hand #1
live shorthanded (6 max) NLHE MTT
9 players remain at 2 tables (5 handed at Hero's table, and 4 handed at the other)
blinds: T$2k/T$3k
Hero's stack T$94k (31.3xbb), SB(Villain)'s stack ~T$100k(33.3xbb)
Average stack: T$65k
Hero and Villain have been at the same table for ~3 out of the 7 hours of the tournament.
preflop: Hero raises to T$10k w 4c4d, muck, muck, SB fairly quickly calls, BB mucks (2 players, pot size T$23k)
flop: Th5c3d Villain leads for T$10k, Hero pauses for 3-4 seconds and calls (2 players, pot size T$43k)
turn: Th5c3dAh Villain leads for T$15k, Hero pauses for ~15 seconds, Hero quietly pushes all in for T$59k more.

During the ~3 hours of play, I never witnessed Villain slow play any big hand preflop (big hand in this 6 max game included hands like AJo which he had made large reraises with vs possible steals).

During the actual bustout hand, I put Villain's preflop range at a small/medium PP, medium A, suited connector and two broadways. When Villain donks the flop, I put him on a small/medium PP, a set, or a medium A (where Villain was hoping to put pressure on Hero's better A).
Hero floats the flop, and it was unknown what range this represented to the Villain, but my intention was to represent a hand like AQ.

An ace hits on the turn and Villain leads again with a modest bet into a fairly substantial pot. At this point, I feel I am clearly beaten by Villain's entire flop range. Despite the fact that I can muck with still an above average chip stack (T$74k), I fairly quickly decide that I am going to win this hand vs all hands in Villain's range except for the monster hands by semibluffing all in with my gutshot (and set draw).

Villain tanks for about 30 seconds, but eventually calls with his A9. No deuce or 4 on the river, and I'm out.

Even ignoring the ridiculously unnecessary risk (of not mucking on the turn), I'm pretty unhappy about the physical aspect of how I represented this hand. I think I should have tanked much longer - say 20-25 seconds, asked him if he really had an A; then tanked another 30 seconds before moving in with the classic shoulder shrug.

T high good?

2007-08-27T22:23:00.000-07:00

** OOPS typo in my original post. River was 9c. Hero has T high on river ***

I can't for the life of me figure out if this was a call bluff or a good call. During the actual hand I considered both as a substantial possibility, and hence tanked for an extra few seconds before making the call.

hand #1
live $20/$40 LHE 8 handed
Hijack is new player to game and is posting. He does not know me, but I know he is a thrill seeking action player who plays in the $100/$200 game. He loves to makes moves. Money means nothing to this guy; he drives a Lamborghini.
preflop: mucked to Hijack who checks his option, mucked to Hero in SB who completes with Th7c, BB checks (3 players, pot size 3 small bets)
flop: KcKs4c, check, check, Hijack bets, Hero quickly smooth calls, BB mucks (2 players, pot size 5 small bets)
turn: KcKs4c6s, Hero bets, Hijack tanks for less than 1 second and calls (2 players, pot size 4.5 big bets)
river: KcKs4c6s9c, Hero checks, Hijack bets, Hero tanks for 10 seconds and calls, Hijack mucks.

Who said limit hold'em isn't a fun game?

Bubble decision

2007-08-26T23:27:00.000-07:00

live $2,000+$80 NLHE MTT

14 players remaining, 12 places pay. Average chip stack is $155k. Hero is the big stack at this table with $197k. Villain is UTG with 2nd biggest stack of $141k.
Blinds are $6k/$12k. Hero is BB.

Villain has not gotten out of line at any time. I actually know Villain fairly well, he is a very honest guy.

Villain pushes for $141k. First player mucks, 2nd player tanks. Villain says very seriously "I have the best hand, just fold". When it is folded around to me, I look down and find QQ. I almost insta call, but immediately stop myself and take a moment to appraise the situation. I tell Villain that I have a very good hand, and he says then "fine, then call". I very strongly feel that Villain is very comfortable with his hand. He very openly has no fear about his hand. Given his behavior thus far in the hand and my previous experience with him, I can comfortably rule out AA. I just do not see him physically behaving the way he did with a hand like JJ, TT or a worse A. I put his range given all the factors available to me as KK, QQ, and AK.

Hero mucks.

Comments?

Turn: To buy (outs) or not to buy?

2007-08-25T07:42:00.000-07:00

hand #1
8 handed live $20/$40 LHE
The table has been seeing moderately high percentage of multiway single raised pots to the flop
L1 is a weak tighty
Hero has been playing tight ABC poker for the last hour
CC1 is unknown
CC2 is a semi-maniac
CC3 is a weak tighty
BB is semi-loose passive
preflop: muck, L1 open limps, Hero raises w Ts8s, CC1 CC2 CC3 cold call, SB mucks, BB calls, L1 calls (6 players, pot size 12 small bets)
flop: 9c7h4c, L1 checks, Hero bets, CC1 raises, CC2 and CC3 cold call, BB calls, L1 mucks, Hero calls (5 players, pot size 22 small bets)
turn: 9c7h4cAs, BB checks, Hero?

Hero's preflop raise was merely for hand deception purposes in a likely multiway 2 bet preflop hand despite my poor position. Whether or not this is a good or bad idea is ignored for now. I definitely try to minimize my frequency of this line.

On the turn, given the preflop and flop action, there is a decent chance that there is an A out there, including AcXc. However, in a larger pot, should Hero represent the A to buy 3 outs from hands like QT, KT?

Given the player tendencies, and the preflop/flop action the only player who may be holding such a hand (that is ~not~ a flush draw) is CC2, and CC2 will not muck for 1 bet on the turn here. Given the likelihood that an A is out there, how large does the pot need to be for it to be worthwhile for Hero to represent the A?

LHE postflop headsup lines

2007-08-24T00:26:00.000-07:00

I'm getting more comfortable in playing in the $40/$80 game in which the lineup consists of 1-2 very bad players and 6-7 good-very good players. I used to be more reluctant to join such a line up because I didn't think there was enough value from the very bad players to overcome playing against very good players (particularly with the higher variance associated with playing against their aggression, and particularly if I am unlikely to get a desirable seat at that table).

Nowadays, if I see such a lineup, along with a few bad or weaker players in the feeder game, I will readily play this game (both for value and for learning experience) unless there are multiple good or one very good $20/$40 game(s) going.

Anyways, the reason I started this post was to comment on one interesting pattern I've been noticing in the above described $40/$80 lineup. I am growing more experienced in dealing with headsup blind defense situations (both from practical experience and also from WITHG) depending on the nature of the opponent.

For example, with weaker flopped made hands like 2nd or 3rd pair vs. a selectively aggressive opponent that I suspect may consider me a tighter/weaker player, I now prefer the check/raise, bet/call, check/call line. This line tends to maximize my value vs. semi bluffing and pure bluffing, and costing only 1 extra big bet vs. big hands. I have been finding that such opponents are tending to check behind on the turn with draws and 1 overcard type hands if I try the check/raise, check/call, check/call line. (yet seem to start drooling if I make a weak looking turn bet...)
In order for me to take that line, I really have to suspect that the Villain may consider me to be weak-tight. (either because of specific history I have had in the past with that Villain, or some recent laydown(s) I have made during that session, or even some comments I may have made during the session, and Villain hasn't recently seen me make some thin call down)
Against more simplistic aggressive Villains, I continue to prefer using the check/raise, check/call, check/call line. There is simply much less risk of Villain checking behind with a worse hand on the turn.

As an aside, I would be quick to leave the game if it degenerates into one where there are frequently only headsup blind stealing/blind defense situations. However, in games where there are only 1-2 very bad players, there will be times when those fish are lobbying away from the table (e.g. conducting their business on their cell phone - these guys have to make money from somewhere other than poker!, smoking, etc...), and such shorthanded type situations can frequently (but just temporarily) arise (and the better players ~immediately~ adjust to the changing game conditions).

Theoretical vs. Actual Pot Equity

2007-08-22T22:11:00.000-07:00

Here's my I-hate-myself hand of the month:
(In the same breath I ask myself how people can play so much "better" than me?, and also how can people spew so much????)

hand #1
9 handed $20/$40 LHE
Limper1 is unknown
Limper2 is a loose tricky player who slow plays big hands, but is also capable of making moves
Limper3 is unknown
Limper4 is a LAG
Limper5 is a semi-LAG
Hero is in SB
BB is a TAG
preflop: 5 limpers and a couple of muckers, Hero completes with Ah9d in SB, BB checks (7 players, pot size 7 small bets)
flop: 9c5h3d, checked to L4, L4 bets, L5 raises, Hero 3 bets, BB mucks, L1 cold calls, L2 cold calls, L3 mucks, L4 and L5 call (5 players, pot size 22 small bets)
turn: 9c5h3d2d, Hero bets, L1 calls, L2 raises, L4 and L5 muck, Hero tanks and folds, L1 calls (2 players, pot size 16 big bets)
river: 9c5h3d2d8h, check, check, L1 tables 6h3h, L2 tables 5d4d and scoops.

Hero is getting 15:1 immediate pot odds, not closing the turn action, and is out of position with little chance to measurably improve.

I had no history with L1, but at this point in the hand I can put L2's made hand range as: 33, 55, A4s, 46s, 53s, 95s. His semibluff hands are going to be straight/flush/pair combinations.

Assuming a range for L1 of A5,A3,87s,76s, 64s; Hero's blended pot equity on the turn is less than 5% or less than 0.75 big bets. How can I call in this spot? (Hero's actual equity on the turn is 54.75% or 8+ big bets; GEEZ! What a huge divergence between "theoretical" equity and actual equity!!!)

Questionable LHE hands of the day

2007-08-22T08:14:00.000-07:00

Below are a couple of hands from yesterday's $20/$40 LHE game. I posted the first one at 2+2 and got a variety of different responses. I guess that is a good thing in that the decisions must be pretty close if no one can agree??

hand #1
live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
- Hijack+1 is a bad player (~70/12/0.5)
- Hero is in hijack and probably has a relatively solid ABC image
- Villain (~20/15/1.5) is in CO and has a fairly wide preflop 3 betting range (probable range QJs+,88+,AQo+; although I'm not sure about AJo), will slow plays monsters, but not good vulnerable made hands. Villain is unlikely to raise with 2nd nut flush on a 4 flush board. Villain is likely to check behind with 4th-5th nut flush on a 4 flush board, but will call heads up.
- SB is a very loose very bad player (70/5/0.8)
- button and BB are tight players

preflop: mucked to hijack+1 who calls, Hero raises with Ks9s, Villain 3 bets, button mucks, SB calls, BB mucks, limper calls, Hero calls (4 players, pot size 13 small bets)
flop: Kd6d2d, checked to Hero, Hero bets, Villain calls, others muck (2 players, pot size 15 small bets)
turn: Kd6d2d9d, Hero bets, Villain calls (2 players, pot size 9.5 big bets)
river: Kd6d2d9d9c, Hero bets, Villain calls

I bet the turn under the assumption that close to half of Villain's flop range includes no diamond (and hence bet to protect my equity with the most preferred result being that Villain mucks). I will call a turn raise getting 10.5:1. When I am called (drat!) I know I need to improve to win.

The decision that I felt the most unsure about was whether or not to bet or CR the river. My initial post-hand reaction was that I should have CR'd. However, (and this line of thinking is emphasized in Stox's book "Winning in Tough Hold'em Games" WITHG) betting provides the opportunity to bet/3 bet if Villain holds the Ad (and of course, prevents the undesirable outcome of the Villain checking behind with a medium diamond).

Another commenter questioned the value of raising preflop with such a loose 3 bettor behind me. I'm unsure about what my range should be in this situation. My thinking was dominated by the players in hijack+1 and SB, and also the tightness of the BB. During the actual hand, I had given CO very little thought before my preflop raise.

hand #2 - "FPS from boredom?" or "Miss my 29 outer?"
live $20/$40 LHE, 8 handed
preflop: UTG limps, mucked to Hero in SB who completes with JsTc, BB checks (3 players, pot size 3 small bets)
flop: Qh9h9c, Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero tanks for 3 seconds and calls, BB mucks (2 players, pot size 5 small bets)
turn: Qh9h9c7s, Hero bets, UTG tanks and calls (2 players, pot size 4.5 big bets)
river: Qh9h9c7s8c, Hero bets, UTG immediately raises, Hero tanks and calls. UTG's JhTh chops the pot.

The instant I saw the flop, I decided to represent the 9. The pot was small (yeah, so why the heck am I taking such risks??) so I felt that check/call/lead was very believable to these thinking opponents. (also, UTG is the type that automatically would bet this flop if the blinds check).

BIG Missed river raises

2007-08-20T12:26:00.000-07:00

I'm continuing to play a substantial amount of live midstakes LHE.

Within the last few days, there is one particular mistake I've made that really sticks in my mind:
"Calling on the river in a big multiway pot with a hand that is very likely to be better than or equal to the bettor's but possibly not better than one or more of the opponents behind me (for whom which calling 2 bets would be a tough decision)."

I have 2 examples of this: (granted some of my earlier street decisions in these hands are poor or at least debatable; I will comment on those as well)
hand #1
live $20/$40 LHE, 8 handed; Hero is posting $20 in the CO; SP1 is a solid and smart player, Button is unknown player, SB semi-solid player, BB is a very solid player, LWP1 and LWP2 are both loose and intermittently wild players. LWP1 tends to be more wild preflop and on the flop; LWP2 can be wild on any street, and also has a very frequent tendency to bluff (or bet, depending on your point of view) very weak hands on the river
preflop: muck, SP1 open raises, LWP1 and LWP2 both cold call, Hero calls $20 more with 8h8c (I would have 3 bet with no cold callers even with SP1 range given few loose players behind me), button mucks, SB calls, BB calls (6 players, pot size 12 small bets)
flop: 2h3d5h, checked to SP1, SP1 bets, LWP1 and LWP2 call, Hero raises, SB mucks, BB immediately 3 bets, SP1 immediately caps it, LWP1 and LWP2 call 3 more, Hero tanks and calls (I don't like this call getting only 15:1 vs BB and SP1's ranges on this board with this hand; one modest consolation is that Hero holds 8h, I definitely muck here without the 8h) (5 players, 32 small bets)
turn: 2h3d5h6h, checked around (5 players, 16 big bets)
river: 2h3d5h6h4c, checked to LWP2, LWP2 bets, Hero calls, everyone else calls. Pot is chopped 5 ways; (BB tables 64o, SP1 tables QcQs; amusingly Hero holds the ~only~ heart)

The river situation should be an easy raise for Hero (and calling a 3 bet from LWP2 is mandatory, while folding to any other 3 bet). During the actual hand, I was too busy cursing myself for calling on the flop and reflecting how far behind I was in the hand to be mentally preparing myself for a situation where I could steal the pot (some or all of it). This type of situation is a frequent one - namely that in order to be successful in poker, you can't dwell on the past; you must focus on the present and the future.

hand #2
live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed; Hero is posting $20 in the CO; SP1 is a semi-solid and smart player, Hijack is an action player (and is well known for how much action he brings to the table), Button is a tight player, SB is unknown, BB is semi-loose passive. For the players that Hero has history with, Hero has a tight table image.
preflop: muck, SP1 open raises, mucked to Hijack, Hijack 3 bets, Hero calls 2 more with 9h7h (semi-loose call getting somewhere between 5-6:1 without closing the action), button mucks, blinds and SP1 call (5 players, pot size 15 small bets)
flop: TcTs8d, checked to Hero, Hero bets, all call (5 players, 20 small bets)
turn: TcTs8dTd, checked around (5 players, 10 big bets)
river: TcTs8dTd6h, checked to Hijack, Hijack bets, Hero calls, SB calls. Hijack tables A high, SB wins with 4's full.

Sigh...
I'm going to be paying particularly close attention for these types of situations/opportunities in the future...

What's good for the goose, good for the gander...

2007-08-11T18:09:00.000-07:00

Lately, I've been giving out a lot of advice to someone who is very near and dear to me. I've come to realize that many of the things I am being critical of and/or making suggestions about are just as applicable to myself (albeit in different ways).

I'm re-committed to self-improvement, and I will endeavor to do as I say.

donk hand of the week

2007-07-28T00:46:00.000-07:00

Writing about all those big pair hands in my last post leaves me feeling a little sick about playing big pairs.

However, I just remembered an AWFUL beat I gave today. Here it is with absolutely lousy decision making on every post flop street:

hand #1
9 handed live $40/$80, CO is a very tight, and only modestly aggressive ABC player who is posting, BB is a middle age Caucasian whom I have played with before but don't remember how he plays, so I assumed pretty standard for the demographic (since he was not memorable enough for me to recall)
preflop: mucked to CO who checks, Hero raises w 8s7s, SB mucks, BB calls, CO tanks for 5 seconds and calls (very weak! yum yum) (3 players, pot size 6 small bets)
flop: JsJc3c, BB donk bets, CO turbo mucks, Hero tanks and calls (my line of thinking is that BB is donking a very small PP, and that the likelihood that BB will check the turn is fairly high - e.g. a big card comes, or just general conservativeness of my perceived classification for this player. I put my outs at somewhere near 8; 6 for my pair possibilities, >1 for my runner runner flush, and a little less than 1 for counterfeit possibilities against PP 66 or smaller (2 players, pot size 8 small bets)
turn: JsJc3cAs, BB bets, (yikes he is STILL betting?!!?) Hero tanks and calls (a pretty darn loose call with probably no more than 7 outs getting 5:1) (2 players, pot size 6 big bets)
river: JsJc3cAs2s, BB bets, (wow, STILL betting??) Hero chickens out and calls saying "I have to see what you have". BB tables two red K's and table goes berserk when Hero tables the runner runner suckout.

Everyone in this hand plays so goot...

recent big pairs in LHE

2007-07-27T22:31:00.001-07:00

I have been playing a substantial amount of live LHE, primarily full ring $40/$80. Recently I played a KK hand that was criticized by someone who's play I respect. I don't think I agree with him, and perhaps I respect his game less so because of this. I'm not really sure, so I thought it best I post this hand so that I can re-read it later and possibly reconsider.

While on the subject of KK hands, I'll also post another one that was a little interesting and perhaps played questionably.

hand #1
9 handed, live $40/$80 LHE
preflop: Hero open raises UTG w KsKc, cold called by a slightly tilting experienced player UTG+1, loose player cold calls, mucked to maniac in SB who calls, BB calls (5 players, pot size 10 small bets)
flop: 3h4h5c, maniac bets, BB mucks, Hero immediately raises, UTG+1 immediately 3 bets, muck, muck, maniac calls, Hero caps, both call (3 players, 22 small bets)
turn: 3h4h5c9s, maniac checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, maniac calls, Hero?

as played:
turn: 3h4h5c9s, maniac checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, maniac calls, Hero tanks and calls (3 players, 17 big bets)
river: 3h4h5c9sKh, maniac checks, Hero?.

as played:
river: 3h4h5c9sKh, maniac checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, maniac mucks, Hero tanks and calls.

UTG+1 tables the flopped nut straight.

- I was criticized for calling on the turn. I absolutely concede that my hand is not good on the turn, but getting 16:1 I think it is reasonable to call vs. what I perceive to be a hand range of {AA, KK, 2 pair, a set, a straight} for UTG+1 and {some pair, and/or str/flush draw} for maniac.
- I capped the flop and led the turn because I was very confident that UTG+1 would raise on the come for a free card and take the free card UI, and also because of the value from putting in the extra bet with the maniac in the hand. I was pretty confident that I had defined my hand well enough for UTG+1 to understand and that he was not tilting so much that he would continue to raise the turn on the come.
- I was planning to muck the river UI (and I'm sure many would disagree with mucking an overpair with this pot size, but that was my plan).

on to the next hand...

hand #2
9 handed, live $40/$80 LHE, Hero and J have a "solid" table image that the majority of the table is aware of. S is a clever and sometimes tricky player (though you could very much question that from this hand - S was stuck at least 15 big bets prior to this hand, so that may influence his behavior).
preflop: Hero open raises UTG w KsKc, muck, muck, J 3 bets, mucks, S caps it cold, button and blinds muck, Hero and J call (3 players, pot size 13 small bets)
flop: 9c8h3c, Hero donk bets, J calls, S calls (3 players, pot size 16 small bets)
turn: 9c8h3c4s, Hero checks, J checks, S bets, Hero calls, J check raises, S calls, Hero 3 bets, J looks sick and calls, S laughs and calls (3 players, pot size 17 big bets)
river: 9c8h3c4sJh, Hero (throws up in his mouth and) bets, J calls, S mucks AcQc faceup. J's AA is good.

oh yeah, another fun big pair hand. This time not KK, but QQ. I think I'm okay with the way I played the hand, but was just "unlucky"???

hand #3
9 handed, live $40/$80 LHE, Mary has a fairly solid raising range, but considerably looser calling down/chasing range. Chris is a semi-solid player whom I have played a large number of hours with.
preflop: Mary open raises UTG, Hero 3 bets UTG+1 w QhQd, Chris caps it cold UTG+2, mucked back to UTG and both call (3 players, pot size 13 small bets)
flop: Ts6s5c, Mary checks, Hero checks, Chris bets, both call (3 players, pot size 16 small bets)
turn: Ts6s5c9c, Mary checks, Hero bets after a very brief hesitation, Chris instantly raises, Mary calls, Hero tanks and mucks (2 players, pot size 13 big bets)
river: Ts6s5c9cQc, Hero pukes, Mary check calls, Chris's AA are good.

Is this a bad turn muck by hero? My intention of betting the turn was to get some kind of read from Chris with the intention of mucking if I feel I am beaten to save a bet from a scenario where I am unlikely to improve (vs the check/call check/call line).

Many players in UTG+2's will automatically raise the turn with JJ or QQ, but I really felt given my previous playing experiences with Chris that he would have stopped to think (for even a brief moment) before raising on the turn with a hand worse than KK+. Perhaps my thinking is just too biased based on my actual hand. Hard to say...

3 moments from Vegas

2007-07-03T22:40:00.000-07:00

i) In the lobby of Caesar's Palace, a young lady dressed in her bridal gown is conversing with a Caesar's employee. The employee is clearly telling her that she cannot do something. The bridezilla cries out to get her message through to the oblivious employee, "But you don't understand! We are here for THE WEDDING!!!!".

ii) At the Total Rewards desk at the Rio, a gentleman and his wife push up to the front of the line. The clerk asks "Sir are you a diamond member, this line is for diamond members only." The man replies extremely proudly, "No but my son is. He is a ~poker player~!"

iii) At a $2/$5NL game at the Wynn, there are a couple of mid-high stakes young european players donking it up. Elky wanders into the room and is chatting and laughing it up with them. I had been friendly chatting with my neighbor for the past hour, and I mention to him who Elky is (none of the players at the table know any of these online players). I get Elky's attention and start, in a VERY roundabout way, asking him if he wants to buy my seat (as there is a modest wait). My neighbor more decisively just stands up, says "sell ya my seat for 100 bucks", and pushes Elky into the chair. I snooze I lose... (I also didn't do a particularly effective job of capitalizing on the game conditions for the next couple of hours, so that missed free $100 was particularly annoying...)

Playing bad, getting lucky...

2007-06-13T22:04:00.001-07:00

These are two dopey hands from a $5/$10NL session at the Rio.

hand #1
9 handed live $5/$10NLHE
- Villain is a vegas local who plays about 20/10/0.8. He likes to slow play to the river. About 10 minutes ago, we were discussing a different player at the table who Villain had commented was playing weak tight (he said so in a mocking way). Last of all, Villain is steaming a little bit just prior to this hand.
- Hero has not been very active in this session with a VPIP < 10%
preflop: muck, Villain limps, Hero raises to 5xbb w AdKh, mucked around to Villain who calls (2 players, pot size 11.5bb)
flop: AhKd4h, Villain checks, Hero makes a weak c-bet of 5xbb, Villain immediately CR to 15xbb, Hero tanks and calls (2 players, pot size 41.5bb)
turn: AhKd4h5c, Villain bets 20xbb, Hero tanks and calls (2 players, pot size 81.5bb)
river: AhKd4h5c2s, Villain instabets 40xbb, and Hero instacalls. Villain shows 8c8s, presumably to see what Hero called him down with. Hero shows, and Villain goes ballistic.

On the flop, I made a weak bet on a coordinated A high board to allow a thinking player, like the Villain, to take the pot away from me. Villain's flop action is consistent with this line (and, of course, with a better hand like 44, but also worse made hands like Ax/A4)

On the turn, I put Villain on 44 or nothing, and call to keep the pot small (and in small part for rope-a-dope reasons)

On the river, Villain fires a THIRD bullet. Granted, I know that Villain is steaming a little bit, and also that Villain knows that I am capable of folding top pair type hands, but I still don't think these Vegas locals are making these multistreet bluffs often enough to call getting 3:1. I don't like my call.

At any rate, in the actual hand: on the river, I would have tanked and possibly mucked if any of 3 things happened:
i) heart comes
ii) significantly bigger bet, say 40bb
iii) any pause before Villain bets the river

--------------------------------------------

On to the next hand....

My postflop actions in this hand related to bet sizing and building a pot are poor. I really hate this hand.

hand #2
9 handed live $5/$10NLHE
- different Villain who is new to the game this orbit (no prior history)
- effective stacks ~120bb
preflop: donkey limps UTG, mucked to Villain in MP+1 who limps, mucked to button who limps, Hero complete in SB w 5h5s, another donkey in the BB checks (5 players, pot size 5bb)
flop: 2s5dJs, checked to Villain who overbets 8xbb, button mucks, Hero calls fairly quickly, everyone else folds (2 players, pot size 21bb)
turn: 2s5dJsAh, Hero checks, Villain bets 15xbb, Hero CR to 40xbb, Villain tanks for ~8 seconds and calls (2 players, pot size 101bb)
river: 2s5dJsAh8s, Hero bets 40xbb, Villain insta calls, Hero shows set, Villain shows smaller set.

I was quite astonished to see his hand give that he didn't push on the turn.

Anyway, this should have been a very simple hand. If I lead on the flop, all the money goes in on either the flop or the turn. Boo me!
This is the most significant notable point of the hand. *** Namely, Hero took a very simple situation and unnecessarily created a potentially difficult situation to handle. ****

Villain commented that he wished I had moved in on the river so he could have mucked. I replied that I had to bet some amount that he could call.

I don't know what I would have done (other than throw up in my mouth) if Villain moves in on the river for ~30bb more. It is a very bad sign in NLHE if you don't know how to respond to a raise.

Hero was very lucky that Villain had just the right hand to call the river bet. I would imagine that for a more standard range for a Villain with this board and the earlier action, the Villain will either muck or raise.

...best laid plans...

2007-05-30T14:39:00.000-07:00

often go awry...

I'm leaving for Vegas in less than 48 hours. My original plan included playing in Saturday's event #3 (the $1.5k NLHE large field televised event). The last few days have thrown a wrench in those plans as I have not been able to sleep for the last few days (averaging less than 3 hours of sleep per night). Due to travel plans and scheduling, tonight will be deciding factor. If I can get in a good solid night's rest, I intend to register for event #3 when I arrive on Friday. Otherwise, I will utilize the time to rest and put in some cash game hours. (I may bank some hours in at the Wynn to take advantage of the $100k freeroll)

I'm about 75% sure (mostly depending on availability - either due to being still in an MTT or exhausted from cash game or more likely lack of sleep), I'll enroll in the split pot bracelet events (events 5 and 9). I will likely pass on the NLHE rebuy event.

The over/under for the number of WSOP events I'll play on this particular trip is 3.

I sincerely hope that my game/MTT selection stays level headed during the trip and that I don't start making very bad meta-choices due to exhaustion or tilt. I imagine, from an EV perspective, this will be the most significant factor for this trip....

Inspiring posts...

2007-05-28T15:47:00.001-07:00

1. sbrugby - staying on top

Some equity notes

2007-05-27T21:57:00.000-07:00

Note: There is really no point to this post. I just wrote it up because there was a situation I was surprised about after doing an analysis. I tend to remember things better when I write them out.

I think that as I've recently started devoting a portion of my playing time to short stacking (to diversify the income streams), I'm starting to spend more time thinking about preflop equity situations. I never seriously put a lot of effort into developing my SNG skills, and guessing vs. calculating ICM numbers is surely more non-intuitive. However, I think that while shortstacking, I'll be running into far more multiway preflop equity scenarios than in an SNG.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

So I'm shortstacking small stakes NL tonight when a simple hand came up:

3-4 limpers, Hero jams for 20xbb with JJ and gets called in 3 spots. The respective calling hands are QJs, AKo, and 75o. All callers have Hero covered.

I was curious about my equity in this situation, so I ran poker stove.
JJ - 24.385% or 19.5bb
QJs- 23.926% or 19.1bb
AKo - 34.325% or 27.5bb
75o - 17.364% or 13.9bb

Unfortunately, it turns out that the middle pair (JJ) is losing about 1/2 of a bb in Sklansky bucks in this type of situation. Yuck!

My immediate, but incorrect, feeling was that middle pair's equity was hurt by the over-overcall.
However, here is the 3-way equity:
JJ - 33.391% or 20.0bb
QJs - 26.164% or 15.7bb
AKo - 40.445% or 24.3bb

As you can see, middle pair's equity is almost unchanged by 75o's over-overcall (but variance increases by about 25%). The other two hands benefit almost equally by 75's awful call. (Although QJs gains just slightly more, which is not surprising since it has more drawing potential).

Amusing bad beat story

2007-05-25T20:54:00.000-07:00

I was sitting next to a player from Minnesota today in my local $20/$40 LHE game. The nice gentleman told me about a hand from Cantebury Park that is easily the worst bad beat story, in relative terms, that I have ever heard about in LHE.

hand #1
$8/$16 LHE Jackpot table (Jackpot is $80k, Aces full or better beaten where both cards must play in both hands and an Aces full hand requires the holder to have at least one Ace, 50% goes to loser, 25% goes to winner, remainder of players at the table split the last 25%)
There is a 5 bet/street cap in this cardroom. I don't know the position of the players or the sequence of bets, but it is not important.
preflop: betting is capped preflop with at least 3 players who hold the hands AA, KK, and 77.
flop: AKK, the betting is capped, and at least those 3 players continue in the hand
turn: AKK7, some action
river: AKK77, some more action

The AA player has over $39k of equity on the flop. Mister 77 has about $2.5k of equity.

To put things in perspective, a 300BB bankroll for $8/$16 is $4800. The number of Sklansky bucks that AA lost is 7.6x a full bankroll (almost 2300BB). positively sick!

Pimpage

2007-05-18T09:56:00.000-07:00

This is a link to the blog of Mike Watson (a.k.a. SirWatts), an up and coming player who has really blossomed over the last 12-18 months.

He is also from my home town, St. John's, and my alma mater, University of Waterloo.

Seems like he is occasionally fading the variance of $200/$400NL. Sick!

Deer in the headlights

2007-05-08T12:52:00.000-07:00

This is a hand that I recently messed up on. I think the root cause of my problem is that I didn't take enough time to think through my plan on the turn when I am raised.

The end result of the hand is probably the same given my opponent's actual hand, however the decision making process is what is important here.

In retrospect, the river decision should be very easy. I will not be making this type of mistake any time soon.
The flop play might be debatable, but this is a trade-off situation between maximizing the number of bets that get put in the pot and maximizing the chance of winning an already big pot.

This is the hand as played:

hand #1
9 handed live $40/$80 LHE
pf raiser is a fairly solid player
button is loose passive, somewhat inexperienced player
preflop: UTG limps, mucked to hijack who raises , button cold calls, Hero calls in SB w 9c8c, BB calls, UTG calls (5 players, 10 small bets)
flop: Jc8h8s check, check, check, pfr bets, button calls, Hero raises, muck, muck, pfr calls, button calls (3 players, 16 small bets)
turn: Jc8h8s7c Hero bets, pfr mucks, button raises, Hero calls (2 players, 12 big bets)
river: Jc8h8s7cQc Hero bets, button raises, Hero calls

During the actual hand, I bet with the intention of calling an insta-raise and mucking if button tanked and then raised. (The reason behind this is that button's hand reading and board reading skills were suspect, and he could easily miss the flush possibility if he held a str)

The playing lines for the river scenario can be generically characterized as:
- the bet/call line wins 1 bet when Hero is ahead and loses 2 bets when behind
- the check raise line wins 2 bets when Hero is ahead and loses 2-3 bets when behind

Calling vs mucking to a river 3 bet is very opponent-dependent. In this particular hand, I think the Hero could safely avoid losing the 3th river bet by tanking before check raising to make it easier to fold to a 3 bet. I would never intentionally do that against a more experienced player . Against this type of newbie player (he was inexperienced, but not a moron), I believe that tanking and then raising would give him pause to think and prevent him from 3 betting me with a worse hand (but still always paying off with a worse hand).

Result: button shows 8d7d

"And that's just one of them..."

2007-05-08T02:05:00.000-07:00

I played a VERY embarrassing hand in my latest session tonight, so I thought I would write about it while the hand is still fresh in my mind. At the time at which this hand occurred, I had been having quite a difficult session. I was likely beyond the point at which I should remain in the game (both in terms of mindset and table image).

I make at least one blatant obvious mistake in this hand, but I additionally make one somewhat uncommon mistake (uncommon in the sense that the situation does not arise very frequently). It is this second mistake that I particularly want to keep in mind for the future.

SB is a smart, tricky, and aggressive player. SB is aware of Button's tendencies.
Button is a loose player who also almost always does not 3 bet with his big PP's preflop. Button's hand reading skills are questionable, and his opinion on what constitutes a big hand is questionable. Over the course of this long session, Hero and button have had a number of pleasant conversations and button is legitimately nice to Hero.
On flop, Button will always bet any pair when it is checked to him.

hand #1
live $20/$40 LHE
preflop: Hero raises UTG w AcKs, mucked to button who smooth calls, SB calls, BB mucks (3 players, pot size 7 small bets)
flop: AsQcJh SB checks, Hero checks, button bets, SB mucks, Hero calls (2 players, pot size 9 small bets)
turn: AsQcJh9d Hero checks, button bets and says "I've got it", Hero tanks and calls (2 players, pot size 6.5 big bets)
river: AsQcJh9dKh Hero checks, button bets and again says "I've got it, I've got it, I've got it", Hero tanks and mucks, button turns over one card, Jc, and says "and that's just one of them..." (meaning??)

Regarding the unconventional flop play: This was something of a fps (fancy play syndrome). Button will auto bet any pair (including an underpair), and SB will check raise any pair on the board if pfr checks. SB would slow play a hand like 2 pair or better by only calling. Hero's intention is to 3 bet the SB. When SB mucks, Hero smooth calls with the intention of check raising the turn.

On the turn, Hero becomes legitimately concerned about button's claim and conservatively calls.

On the river, Hero's muck with top two getting 7.5:1 is ridiculous as button's range is most 2 pairs or better. Doing a straight baysian analysis (J9, QJ, AJ, A9, JT, QT, KT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA) (dropped AK and AQ as he always 3 bets these preflop) shows that mucking the river to be a -2.64BB mistake. OUCH!

A big miss on the part of the Hero during the river action was ~neglecting to ask the button to show his hand~. With this type of player and this type of relationship between players, asking for a peek is extremely likely (perhaps 75% of the time) to result in one or both cards to be revealed.
If button even only shows the J, with the revised range, mucking the river is a -4.23BB mistake.

This is the type of scenario that arises with sufficient frequency in live game situations that I should keep the "can you show me?" play in my arsenal.

The inconsequential -$7EV decision

2007-05-03T21:55:00.000-07:00

The following hand featured the largest cash game pot I have ever played.

In one important way, this hand reminds me very much of a hand that EricE wrote about last year.

In regards to the title of this post, my preflop 3 bet is an intentional -$7EV raise (with 6 opponents). However, this well documented type of slightly negative EV preflop/positive EV postflop play is perfectly reasonable especially considering that SB and UTG are in this hand.

Note that the substantial multiway play in this hand was not typical for the game. A number of hands involving the super LAGGY SB did have inflated pots due to some outrageous late street bluff raising/reraising/capping. Hero has tight pf image and weak/tight postflop image in this session.

hand #1
9 handed Live $40/$80 LHE
preflop: super loose player limps UTG, Hero limps w 3h3d, very solid MP limps, typically solid but occasionally tricky MP+1 raises, MP+2 mucks, tricky player in CO cold calls, button mucks, super LAGGY donkey SB calls, tricky BB calls, UTG calls, Hero 3 bets, all call (7 players, pot size 21 small bets)
flop: 3sTcKs checked to Hero, Hero bets, MP calls, MP+1 raises, CO cold calls, SB mucks, BB cold calls, UTG 3 bets, all call (6 players, pot size 39 small bets)
turn: 3sTcKs6h checked to UTG, UTG bets, Hero raises, MP cold calls, MP+1 3 bets, CO 4 bet caps, BB calls all in for 2.875BB, UTG tanks and mucks, all call (5 players, pot size 39.375BB)
river: 3sTcKs6h7s checked around.

On the turn, UTG tanked for 30 seconds while considering calling the 3 raises that came after he bet. During this time, I had plenty of time to analyze MP+1's and CO's hand ranges and mentally re-count the pot size. I put him on only 2 possible hands given the action on every street - TT and AsTs. (he will always cap pf w KK and would never have raised preflop and on the flop w 66)

He is definitely capable of raising on the turn in a big pot w 2nd pair and the nut flush draw, however given all the actions that have occurred thus far in this actual hand I am EXTREMELY skeptical that his hand is anything other than a legitimately represented hand.

CO's hand range includes 66, KT, OESD, the plethora of pair and a flush draw combinations, and a lot of wacky 2nd best hands, and any hand that he intends to take to free showdown. He is certainly capable of cold capping with a drawing hand with the rationale that "it is going to be capped anyways...".

Regardless of my feelings on MP+1's and CO's (particularly MP+1's) hand range and my equity even if my hand is currently good, I can't find it in myself to make a fold here.

Result: MP+1 shows TT to take the puny side pot, BB's Js?s takes the main pot.
Final pot: $3145 (after a $5 drop/rake)

Regarding CO's hand, he didn't show his hand at the time, and I didn't have the opportunity to question him.

MP flashed QcJc in disgust.

Note to self

2007-05-03T20:26:00.000-07:00

It is commonly accepted that winners of online poker sites' WSOP satellites will have $10k credited to their online accounts as Harrah's appears to be sticking to their guns.

My promise to myself is that I will bank any online seats I win this year, and I will not enter the Main event unless I win a B&M sat...

LHE ramblings

2007-05-02T20:25:00.000-07:00

The trend of NLHE killing off LHE games has been well reported and is, in general, very widespread. However, in large part due to municipal laws, live LHE games in my area are still very much alive and well.

Local municipal laws disallow any single bet to exceed $200. The motivation for the law is to help protect people (who, of course, are incapable of protecting themselves) by limiting players' overall rate of losses. States like Florida and Colorado have similar statewide laws, although much more extreme. Florida has a $2 max bet (although rumors are that legislators are considering a modest increase), and Colorado has a $5 max bet. A lot of points could be made on this whole subject matter, but I digress.

At any rate, in regards to how this local law affects the types of games that get spread locally, the effect is this: All high stakes hold'em games are of the limit variety. The relative stakes of a $100/$200 LHE game positively dwarf any type of NLHE game (or actually spread limit HE as it is called) that is restricted by a $200 max bet.

The end result is that there is a very healthy size player pool for midstakes games in the $20/$40, $40/$80 and $100/$200 range. (The area I live in is very affluent)

I'm fine with this as I do enjoy LHE more than NLHE, in spite of the substantially higher number of bad beats taken.

an LHE hand
----------------

I joined a local $40/$80 LHE game for the first time in an extremely long time. After having played in the $40 game at Commerce a few times this year (which is an absolutely great game), I told myself to restrict any $40 play to the times I can make it to Commerce. There is a frequent tendency in card rooms that the toughest games in a card room tend to be at the 2nd highest stakes. In the case of the largest local card room, the $40/$80 game is the 2nd highest stakes, and I do believe that the above trend applies to this case.

However, one local club that previously had $20/$40 LHE as the highest stakes game in the room recently added a $40/$80 table.

Here is a hand from that session that I found interesting. In this hand, it made a substantial difference to me that it was a live (vs. online) hand.

hand #1
9 handed $40/$80 LHE
Villain #1 in the SB is an observant thinking player who I believe has a fairly good understanding of people's hand ranges. He has been losing, but I do not believe he is even remotely on tilt.
Villain #2 on the button is a talkative, observant, thinking and moderately aggressive player who has not gotten involved in a single hand with me thus far in the session. He is having a good session.
I've been playing a solid, unimaginative style for ~1 hour that I have been at this table. However both players have a moderate amount of previous table time with me, so they would understand my late position open stealing range is fairly wide. Both I and SB understand that button's pf 3 betting range is also somewhat large.
preflop: mucked to Hero in CO, Hero raises with AhKc, button 3 bets, SB cold calls, BB mucks, Hero calls. (3 players, pot size 10 small bets)
flop: Kd9s9c, SB checks, Hero checks, button bets, SB just calls, Hero check raises, button pauses for less than 1/4 second and calls, SB calls (3 players, pot size 16 small bets)
turn: Kd9s9c3h, SB and Hero both check call (3 players, pot size 11 big bets)
river: Kd9s9c3h5c, SB checks, Hero checks, button bets, SB mucks, Hero calls.

On the flop when facing the button's bet and SB's call, I make Villain #1's range to be QJs, JTs, T9s, J9s, 98s, etc. I don't put him on any K as he didn't CR, and no big PP as he didn't 4 bet pf. Button's range at this point is very wide as, naturally, he will cbet the flop 100% of the time: 33+, ATo+, KTo+.
I CR this somewhat dry board to define my hand (I assume I am representing any Kxo or better) and observe both opponents' reactions.

My line of decisions beyond this point was substantially influenced by the fact that the button did not react in any upset manner when CR'd on the flop. I was quite surpised that he had no visible reaction as he is a talker, and this to me represented strength (AA, AK, KK).
Thus my read is the scenario is a way ahead, way behind situation vs. the button and SB, although I put them on very different hands.

On the turn, I felt a check was prudent for the above reason. My check was with the intention of folding to a SB CR. Button's turn bet and mannerism re-enforces my earlier read. However, as I mentioned earlier, he is an aggressive player and a very small % of the time he will have a worse decent made hand , and if so I would expect him to fire both the turn and the river given the way the hand has been played since he will always bet when the pot is big and he is sure he can't win in a showdown. (This playing line is essentially described in Stoxtrader's new book "Winning in Tough Hold'em Games" in the section on postflop play - "Check-Raise/Check-Call line when playing out of position")
SB's turn call actually made me revise his range to JTs, QJs, and include some very passively played medium K's like K7 and K8. I have definitely ruled out trip 9's by this point, and I think he will also not slow play a full house at this point. I do not want to see any broadway card other than K on the river.

The river card changes absolutely nothing. Button bets and SB mucks giving me 12:1, but really 5.5:1 to chop vs his legitimate hand range and 12:1 for his bluffs.

This is a straight bayesian analysis. The only unknown is how small a % of the time button has a bluffing hand. Let's assume 5%.
AA - 3 possibilities
KK - 1
AK - 6
The EV of calling is +3.3BB; an easy call.

Assume for a moment that SB calls the river, and that 90% of the time it is with a worse K, and 10% of the time it is a worse non-K hand. (A King in SB's hand SUBSTANTIALLY reduces the % of button's legitimate hands that I can chop with...)
The EV drops to +1.85BB; also an easy call.

Assume for a moment that SB calls the river with the above guidelines, and that button is NEVER bluffing.
The EV drops to +0.75BB. (I was actually surprised this number was so high until I did the calcuation)

Doing a similar analysis on the turn is substantially more complicated due to the necessity to factor in scenarios like SB drawing to the best hand, Hero improving on the river to beat a legitimate button hand, Hero improving to a still 2nd best hand, etc..

Anyway, on to the results.
End Result: Button's AA is good.

Regarding the live vs. online thing with respect to this hand: online I would definitely played the hand much more aggressively and lost 2-3BB more. Playing live provides more information, and is also more entertaining.... :)

Concrete example of good table selection

2007-04-08T21:47:00.000-07:00

hand #1
Live $6/$12 LHE, 9 handed
preflop: Villain1 limps UTG, Hero raises w QhQd, muck, Villain2 cold calls, muck, button calls, SB calls, BB calls, Villain1 calls (6 players, pot size 12 small bets)
flop: AsQs8h, blinds check, V1 bets, Hero calls, V2 calls, button mucks, SB calls, BB mucks (4 players, pot size 16 small bets)
turn: AsQs8hJd, SB checks, V1 bets, Hero raises, V2 cold calls, SB mucks, V1 calls (3 players, pot size 14 big bets)
river: AsQs8hJd3d, V1 checks, Hero bets, V2 calls, V1 calls

Summary:
On the 4 streets, Hero has 3rd nuts, 2nd nuts, 4th nuts and 4th nuts, respectively.

At no time is Hero raised, nonetheless, Hero is in 3rd place on the river. V1 has 2nd nuts (Ts9s) and V2 has 3rd nuts (AhAc).

When V1 ~over~called, I made a speech while turning over my hand "If you guys can't raise, you can't win..."

I guess I need to work on my hand reading skills......

WPT Reno 2007

2007-03-26T18:51:00.000-07:00

The trip to Reno for the 2007 World Poker Challenge was an unsuccessful but reasonably satisfying one. I busted about an hour after the 1st dinner break.

Main event - Table 1, Seat 1
For the 2nd time in a row (for big buy in NLHE MTTs) I was stuck with a relatively tough starting table. This being table 1, the table was just not going to be broken on Day 1.
2nd and 3rd to my left were Hoyt Corkins and Mark Seif. Miami John was 2nd on my right. The big joke of the Bay 101 Shooting Stars, Ed "The Cajun Squeeze" Pellegrini, was on my immediate left. He was better than I expected though still fairly weak tight; however he was not giving away any chips. There were 3 average players including Tony Lee; not big Tony but little Tony from the 2003 Reno WPT final table. The one table donkey was seated to the immediate left of Seif. She announced multiple times to the whole table that her goal was not to be the first player eliminated. She made some poor river bluff bets and raises to donk off T$2-3k to Seif and Miami John. I was able to accumlate about T$1.5k chips from her, but the lion share of chips went to The Cajun Squeeze (~T$7k) and Seif (~T$6k) in almost back to back hands.
There certainly are lots of aspects of luck in MTTs, but getting a decent share of the "free" chips that are available in the early levels of the tournament are a big big deal.

Seif'd
The following hand was unquestionably the most interesting one I was involved with during the whole trip. The hand occurred in Level 3. Seif had already bluffed and shown a couple of times already, of which one of the bluffs was against myself. On hand #5 of Level 1, Seif CR'd the 569 rainbow flop headsup with me (after the SB mucked to my c-bet), lead when the 7 came on the turn, and showed QJ high when I mucked. The only point of mentioning this example is that because of this hand, I am 100% certain that Mark was aware that I knew he was capable of making moves.

hand #1
Level 3, T$100/T$200
Hero's stack ~T$10.5k, Villain's (Seif) stack ~T$6.3k
preflop: Hero open limps in 2nd position with ?h?d, mucked to Villain in hijack who limps, mucked to BB who checks (3 players, pot size T$700)
flop: AcQhTc, BB checks, Hero bets T$400, Villain calls, BB mucks (2 players, pot size T$1500)
turn: AcQhTc6d, check, check (2 players, pot size T$1500)
river: AcQhTc6d4c, Hero bets T$900, Villain moves in for T$5700 total, Hero?

I bet the flop to represent a weak A, 2nd or 3rd pair and/or a draw. I believe Villain will tend to raise me here with any decent draw and any equal or better hand (than I represent) and only occasionally flat call (almost certainly flat calling with a straight). I also believe a substantial percentage of the time the Villain will float me here with 2 napkins.

On the turn, I check to keep the pot size manageable. I don't think that the Villain checks too many of his better hands behind me on the turn.

If the Villain floated the flop with the intention of taking it away later, would he tend to check behind on the turn simply because I haven't weakly put in any more chips yet?

Anyways, on the river I elected to continue to represent the same hand that I did on the flop and make a defensive looking bet of a little more than half the pot. My intention at the time was to induce a bluff raise and to immediately call up to a pot size raise. When he moved in, I naturally threw up in my mouth. I tanked for what I would guess was about 90 seconds, although since the passage of time is relative to a person's point of view it could certainly have been longer (I honestly don't believe it would have been much longer than 2 minutes, and Seif did comment to me later that it was not a long time.). At that time, the a**hole Miami John calls the clock on me. I dally for about 15 seconds longer before mucking but not before checking with the dealer to see who called the clock.

I know that in general that these aggressive and successful tourney pros are not bluffing when ~they~ are the ones being put all in. However, I believed at the time (and still believe) that Seif was making a move. I just have such a hard time believing he has such a monster hand on the river that wasn't played more strongly before the river.

The primary problem was that I may have been beat by accident. Supposing that I come to this conclusion prior to my first action on the river should I have played it differently? e.g. CR all in

Although I did not have this information during the hand, a few minutes later, the player on my immediate right announced to the table that he had held Kc3c.

Btw, ?h?d is 2h2d.

Note to self: Another thing for me to consider is what physical and betting tells did I give...

Bay101 Shooting Stars $10k 2007

2007-03-13T22:14:00.000-07:00

(updated with results at the bottom)

Out late on Day 1 again. Sigh...

Crappy table draw (relatively speaking) w Eric Seidel (bounty), Huck Seed, and James Van Alstyne, and just 1 retard who donked off his stack at the 13 minute mark to Huck Seed.

There were two interesting hands that I was involved in. Despite this being relatively early in a deep stack MTT, the peak decisions occur on the flop.

hand #1
Level 4 T$100/T$200/T$25, 10 handed NLHE
Villain #1 was semi-tight w/T$19k, Villain #2 was James Van Alstyne w/+T$40k, Hero has not been very active w/pfr ~5% w/T$27k.
preflop: UTG mucks, Hero raises to T$700 w/4c5c, muck, Villain #1 cold calls, muck, muck, muck, Villain #2 reraises to T$2500 on the button, blinds fold, Hero tanks for 15 seconds and calls, Villain #1 mucks (2 players, pot size T$6250)
flop: 2s4h5h, Hero checks, Villain #2 bets T$6k, Hero???

Ponderings:
i) With 2.5:1 preflop and 13.5:1 postflop implied odds, should I be calling the reraise preflop vs a good opponent?
ii) Van Alstyne is ~not~ a bounty, although Eric Seidel (the bounty) is sitting two to my right with a T$40k stack. Should the fact that the table bounty has such a large stack cause me to make a decision which minimizes the risk to my stack? (since he is currently unlikely to be easily busted any time soon)
I can push on the flop where I know I'm at least a 60/40 favorite, or I can smooth call taking the risk that a bad card for me (an action killer card or a card that improves Van Alstyne's hand). How likely is Van Alstyne to check behind with his one pair on a safe turn after I call such a large flop bet? and if so, how much can I bet on the river (assuming a "safe" turn and river card)? (how much should I bet to justify my preflop call?)

hand #2
Level 6 T$200/T$400/T$50, 10 handed NLHE
Villain #1 is same as hand #1 w/same stack, Villain #3 is new to the table and appears to be a FTP qualifier who is not a donk w/T$17.4k, Hero has around to T$38k.
preflop: muck, Villain #1 raises to $T1100, muck, muck, Villain #3 cold calls, mucked to Hero in BB who calls w/KhTd (3 players, pot size T$3000)
flop: KdTh6s, Hero checks, Villain #1 bets T$1500, Villain #2 calls, Hero check raises to $T6000, Villain #1 disgustedly turbo mucks, Villain #3 tanks for 30 seconds and moves in for T$14.8k total, Hero??

Ponderings:
i) What range can I put Villain #3 other than 66?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results:
hand #1
I tanked for about 45 seconds while doing the standard - counting out the T$6k and showing how many chips I had left. I elected to push for ~T$18k more, and then bit my top lip and tried to look as nervous as I could without moving. Van Alstyne tanked for just over 4.5 minutes (I'm sure about the time because I had full view of my watch, and right from the time I pushed I had been considering how long I would wait before calling a clock. I had decided on 5 minutes with the hopes that calling the clock would provide even more reason for him to call.). Van Alstyne mucked, and Huck Seed immediately yelled out "I would have called you!" (which I was happy to hear).
My guess is that Van Alstyne had QQ (or maybe KK) and didn't want to gamble against his perceived best case that I had AhKh.
I was in fact trying to represent AhKh, but I would have been very interested to know his thought process. Would it be more likely for me to get action if I check raise the minimum?
Being out of position was, surprise surprise, a major disadvantage in this hand.

hand #2
I elected to call, and my worst nightmare came to pass. Villain had slow played KK requiring me to pull out my first even perfect perfect.

Well, I'm still waiting on my first perfect perfect.

In retrospect, I'm not sure how to model his range. The only hands I can beat are a terribly played AA or AK and a total gambler's QJ. My current thought is:
66 - 65% of the time (I have 16.7% pot equity)
TT, KK - 5% (4.4% pot equity)
KT - 10% (50% pot equity)
AA - 10% (73%)
QJ - 10% (69.5%)
Combining these numbers, my weighted pot equity is ~30%, so I'm reasoning that this wasn't a terrible call on my part when I was getting 3:1. Are these percentages realistic?

I guess another important fact to consider is how much difference does it make to me to have the following stacks T$20.5k (if I call and lose), T$31k stack (if I muck), T$58k (if I call and win). My table is not going to be broken on this day. Seidel has around T$55k at this point, and Seed has about T$45k.

3 LHE hands

2007-03-05T13:41:00.000-08:00

I've been playing a huge amount of live hands in recent weeks and have actually been through a few hands that I wanted to record for posterity.

hand #1 - worst successful bluff ever
Live $20/$40 LHE 9 handed - villain #1 is a thinking player who highly values his ability to read other people's hands; however he has frequently paid off on the river where he calls out his opponents hand while putting the chips in. In particular, in the last hour he has correctly called out Hero's monster hand on the river 3 times (and paid off each time). villain #2 is a calling station who patiently waits for premium starting cards and then proceeds to go all the way to the river regardless of the board or the action. Hero has a tight table image.
preflop: mucked to Hero in MP, Hero raises with AhKd, mucked to villain #1 in CO, CO 3 bets, mucked to villain #2 in BB who cold calls, Hero calls (3 players, pot size 9 small bets)
flop: TdJcQc, BB bets, Hero calls, CO raises, BB 3 bets, Hero calls, CO calls (3 players, pot size 18 small bets)
turn: TdJcQcQs, BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB cold calls 2, Hero tanks and calls (3 players, pot size 15 big bets)
river: TdJcQcQsTh, BB checks, Hero bets, CO curses and almost immediately mucks JJ face up on the table, BB chuckles and immediately calls and tables AKo. 17 big bet pot is chopped. Hilarity ensues.

On the turn, I made a crying call of the CO's raise with the intention of making a crying call of 1 bet if I closed the river action. When the river paired the T, my instinct was that I couldn't win the hand without betting and I put the chips in without giving any thought. I don't think this bluff works 1 time in 30 and recognized it was a negative expectation bet the instant the chips came out of my hand.
Amazingly it worked out, although regardless of the result there could also be some argument made that such a river bluff has positive metagame considerations.

hand #2 - this stuff doesn't happen online part 4
Live $20/$40 LHE 9 handed - can you believe this same !#@$ can happen twice in the same week of live play? UTG is a fairly tight player, the table is otherwise fairly loose.
preflop: UTG raises, Hero 3 bets UTG+1 with AcAs, mucked to CO who cold calls, button cold calls, SB mucks, BB calls, UTG calls (5 players, pot size 15 small bets)
flop: Jh4h6s UTG checks, Hero bets, all call (5 players, pot size 20 small bets)
turn: Jh4h6sQs UTG checks, Hero bets, 3 callers, while UTG is tanking the dealer burns and turns the Ah for the river. Per standard procedure, the card comes back. UTG check raises the field who all call. Ah is shuffled back into the deck. (5 players, pot size 20 big bets)
river: Jh4h6sQs5d UTG bets, all muck to BB who mucks his Kh3h face up and proceeds to curse at both the dealer and the floor for the next half hour.

hand #3 - even lagtards can hit
Live $20/$40 LHE 9 handed - this isn't a thought provoking hand, but it is the only time I have ever gone 4 bets on every street in a live LHE game. Hero has a tight table image and has not gotten out of line thus far in the lengthy session. Button is a loose player, SB is a passive player.
preflop: mucked to Hero in MP+2, Hero open raises w 6d4d, mucked to button who cold calls, SB 3 bets, BB mucks, Hero says "punish the button for tagging along!", Hero 4 bet caps, both call (3 players, pot size 13 small bets)
flop: Jd5d7s SB bets, Hero raises, button cold calls, SB 3 bets, Hero caps it, both call (3 players, pot size 25 small bets)
turn: Jd5d7s8s, SB bets, Hero raises, button tanks and mucks, SB immediately 3 bets, Hero 4 bets, SB shakes her head and says "JJ?" while calling (2 players, pot size 20.5 big bets)
river: Jd5d7s8sAs, SB immediately smiles and bets, Hero raises, SB 3 bets, Hero 4 bets, the BB (who is a friend of SB) murmurs some comment and SB only calls and throws her AA on the table. GODDAMMIT, one player to a hand!

This kind of thing doesn't happen online: part 3

2007-02-25T08:31:00.000-08:00

hand #1
Live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
preflop: UTG limps, mucked to hijack who limps, Hero raises in CO with JsJh, button folds, everyone else calls (5 players, pot size 10 small bets)
flop: AcKd2s, checked to Hero who bets, the blinds and UTG call, hijack tanks for a second, and the dealer burns and starts opening the turn card. The players are seated such that the blinds and UTG can see the turn card, but hijack and Hero cannot. At exactly the same moment, hijack starts making his motion to call. The dealer completes the motion of dealing the turn card at approximately the same time as the hijack's chips entering the pot. The card dealt is Jc. Commotion ensues where the blinds insist that the card must come back, UTG argues strongly that hijack couldn't see the card anyway. Hero and hijack are silent. The floor rules that the card comes back, and the dealer should burn and turn the river card as the turn card, then reshuffle the remaining cards. (5 players, pot size 15 small bets)
turn: AcKd2sTs, checked around (5 players, pot size 7.5 big bets)
river: AcKd2sTs4h, checked to hijack who bets, all fold. UTG flashes QTo as she mucks, hijack flashes AJo.

Whew!

Time time

2007-01-03T12:11:00.000-08:00

Well it is a new year. A time when people make resolutions for the year to come. Resolutions that are rarely kept and often quickly all but forgotten.

Instead, I'm going to make a resolution for just one week. If I can keep it up, then I'll make another resolution next week, and so on... It is not a terribly efficient system, but it is simple.

The one thing I am going to focus on this week is delicately balancing between not wasting any time and being sufficiently patient to wait for the right moments. I strongly believe this has been one of my biggest problems in the last few months, in both life and poker.

On Friday, I'm off to LA for my first ever trip to Commerce.

2 pair - the bane of my LHE existence

2006-11-25T03:08:00.000-08:00

Hmmmm, long time no post. The best out-of-the-blue post is a raving insomniac 3am post....

Of late, I have been exclusively playing live $20/$40 and $40/$80 LHE with a heavy emphasis on the former. There are a variety of reasons for this that I may get into in a later post.

There are 4 hands from my last few sessions that I wanted to mull over, so I thought it would be best to churn out a post to force myself to take the time to do so. I'll first describe the hands, and then make some commentary after the hand history.

In each of the hands, either the Hero or a Villain holds 2 pair.

As always, comments and/or questions are appreciated.

hand #1 - collusion/paranoia
Live $20/$40 LHE, 6 handed.
- preflop: mucked to CO who raises, Hero 3 bets on the button with KcJs, SB mucks, BB pauses and cold calls, CO calls (3 players, pot size 9 small bets)
- flop: Tc4h3s, BB checks, CO bets, Hero calls, BB check raises, CO calls, Hero calls (3 players, pot size 15 small bets)
- turn: Tc4h3sJc, BB bets, CO raises, Hero tanks and cold calls, BB tanks, picks up his cards, shows his neighbor his hand and mucks, CO remarks to Hero "you have AcKc?" (2 players, 11.5 big bets)
- river: Tc4h3sJc5h, check, check, CO's top two pair scoops the pot

For difficult-to-describe reasons, when the BB cold called preflop I suddenly had the feeling that I was in a collusion situation. I've never felt this way about any live cash game situation I have ever been in. However, BB had an expression on his face that didn't seem quite right to me. The BB and CO are both mainland chinese (as opposed to HK'ers, ABC's, or even any other asian) and this possible (although granted very thin) link gave me pause for concern.

When the BB check raised the flop, my collusion concern increased. On the turn, my internal feeling about the collusion was still very strong. I decided to base my decision on how to play the hand on the turn with the assumption that the 2 opponents were colluding. Given that I was "put" in a situation where I was facing two bets cold, I felt my "colluding" opponents had weak hands and wanted to win the hand without a showdown. When I acted on the turn, I actually picked up enough chips in my hand to make it 3 bets, broke off the 2 bets somewhat slowly leaving clear indications that I had considered 3 betting.

Naturally, given the way the rest of the hand played out, the BB and CO were not in cahoots. I later discover that BB had shown his neighbor ATo before mucking. My collusion radar was WAY off. That is quite disconcerting....

Admittedly, my flop play is very questionable. When facing the first bet, if I am concerned about collusion, I should simply muck (having missed the flop), cut my losses, and pay more attention during the remainder of the session for any additional possible patterns of collusion. Otherwise, if I'm going to continue on in the hand, I should take advantage of my position and raise the flop donk bet.

hand #2 - loosey-goosey/big pot
Live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
- preflop: 5 limpers, Hero completes in SB with Qd5c, BB checks (7 players, pot size 7 small bets)
- flop: 3c5s9d, Hero bets, solid BB calls, muck, loose player raises, mucked to (pretty good playing) CO who 3 bets cold (I've played more than enough with CO to know his range of preflop overlimping/flop 3 betting here is exactly 33, 55, 99, A9, K9, 35s), Hero calls, BB mucks, loose player calls (3 players, pot size 17 small bets)
- turn: 3c5s9dQc, Hero checks, loose player checks, CO bets, Hero check raises, loose player tanks and mucks, CO immediately 3 bets, Hero tanks and calls (2 players, pot size 14.5 big bets)
- river: 3c5s9dQc3d, Hero check/folds, CO flashes 99 while raking in the pot

At the time this hand was played, I felt like a complete retard. After writing it out, I feel a little better about the hand because I think my decisions were reasonable (though not great). When CO 3 bets me headsup on the turn, I'm 100% certain he has one of 3 sets. I'm also 100% certain, I will be able to CR and get called on the river if I make Qs full (I will only be check/calling the river with 5s full).

I was not sharp enough on the turn comfortably estimate my EV given my 13.5:1 pot odds on the spot (and the weighted additional bets that will go in on the river if a 5 or Q hits), but I felt it was close to 0. (After inputting the numbers into excel to do a Baysian analysis, the EV turns out to be -0.063BB) Given that during the actual hand, I know the EV is close to 0, in retrospect I'd prefer to minimize my variance by mucking here (and in fact since the actual EV turns out to be negative, I think it is a clear fold).

There is some value to table image/tilt inducement/creating a good game environment to calling the turn 3 bet in what is clearly (at that point) a runner-runner situation. I don't know how to quantify this yet. Also there is certainly an amount of entertainment value in hitting that hand. (gambool indeed).

hand #3 - jammed
Live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
- preflop: Semi-solid UTG open limps, mucked around to semi-LAG CO who raises, mucked to Hero in BB who calls with As8s, UTG calls (3 players, pot size 6 small bets)
- flop: Ts9h7s, Hero bets, UTG calls, CO raises, Hero 3 bets, UTG calls 2 more, CO caps, both call (3 players, pot size 18 small bets)
- turn: Ts9h7sKd, Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG check raises, CO 3 bets, Hero tanks and calls, UTG caps, both call (3 players, pot size 21 big bets)
- river: Ts9h7sKdAh, Hero checks, UTG bets, CO calls, Hero mucks, UTG scoops with QcJc, lagtard CO mucks his T9s.

When I face the turn 3 bet, it is as clear as day that I will be having to call the cap as well. Thus, I should understand that I'm getting 18:3. (It is a bit of an exaggeration for me to call CO a lagtard since his real hand range on the turn 3 bet is 2 pair or a set, but a little better hand-reading from CO on the turn saves me 2 bets - bah the dark side of playing in loose games!) With 8 or 7 outs (depending on CO's set or 2 pair), I'm again in a close-to-zero EV situation again. Yuck variance...

As some regulars in this game often say, "this game is very flushstraighting...."

hand #4 - knocked out
Live $20/$40 LHE, 9 handed
- preflop: 2 EP limpers, ABC-playing button raises, Hero cold calls in SB with Qc9d, everyone calls (5 players, pot size 10 small bets)
- flop: Qh9s7c, checked to 2nd limper (sneaky player who frequently semibluffs, his range here is VERY large), 2nd limper donks, button raises, Hero cold calls 2, BB mucks, 1st limper (semi-lagtard) 3 bets cold, 2nd limper calls, button calls, Hero calls (4 players, pot size 22 small bets)
- turn: Qh9s7c8c, Hero checks, 1st limper bets, 2nd limper raises, button tanks and folds, Hero tanks (has no read on 1st limpers intentions) and folds, 1st limper calls disgustedly (2 players, pot size 15 big bets)
- river: Qh9s7c8cXx (brick on the river), 1st limper check/crying-calls, 2nd limper tables his 9h6h, and 1st limper takes it down with his top pair QcJs

My initial cold call on the flop was made with the intention that I would maximize my chance of winning this big pot by check raising the button on the turn. Instead, after the 1st limper check raises 3 cold, I turn into a disgusting weak tighty (fearing monsters under the bed and being jammed between straights vs. sets). This is a classic example of a hand where played aggressively postflop, I can win this big pot in a showdown (although admittedly I will be making a crying call on the river).

Additionally, given the way that the button reacted both during and after the hand, I imagine he mucked AK, so I'm particularly not pleased with my "plan" to check raise the field on the turn. Another awesome read by yours truly.... :(

Embarrassing realization #1

2006-09-27T19:08:00.000-07:00

I've played in exactly 4 big buy-in tournaments ($10k or greater).

Of those 4 tournaments, I have been all in exactly 5 times.

Of those those 5 hands, when the money went in, I was ahead exactly 1 time. In fact, in that particular hand I was a whopping 60/40 favorite.

The ugly abyss

2006-09-26T14:00:00.000-07:00

One big fault I have had in recent times is that I have put essentially no work into maintaining my support network. This is not a recipe for long term sustainable success.

Without going into specifics, I have undergone the worst 3 online cash game sessions of my career in the past few days.

Having people who understand such times and who can provide guidance would be very helpful right about now.

Shame shame

Exhausted...

2006-09-23T22:38:00.000-07:00

Over the last couple of days, I have put in almost 10k hands. This is a lot for me.

Although these are mostly really low limit games, it is still quite exhausting. The mix is about 70% NLHE and 30% LHE. The LHE games are draining because you just take so many tough beats/unit time in those games, and the NLHE games have been tiring because I have been playing a very laggy style of play.

I still have A LOT of hands to get in before the end of the month, and it is tough to keep up the motivation to play. (I switched Party accounts a few weeks back, and now I am attempting to get back to the higher players club status by the end of the quarter ending Sept 30. Geez, it was so much easier when Party gave points for making deposits....)

I haven't felt this tired from playing ring games since the last few weeks of the Acceler-8-tor promo earlier this year.

To make things easier to endure, I plan to adopt a TAGier style of play for the NLHE to make the play less tiring. Additionally, I'll try to think of some way to reward myself for reaching my target.

Out in 24th

2006-09-18T00:04:00.002-07:00

Got it in bad for the 2nd time today (JJ vs QQ) with no miracle.

Stats for the day:
Hours: 10.4
Results: 24/4495 (+$5987.75)
High water mark: 2 / 39 with 5.4% of total chips
Preflop coin flips won: 6 /8
Preflop dominating hands won: 5 / 6
Preflop dominated hands won: 1 / 2

The 30 minute levels for these events are nice. Partially due to the 1 preflop dominating hand lost (which occured late in level 4), I really only was able to play multi street hold'em for about 4 levels.

Anyways, I have no definite plans to play in any other WCOOP events. The other events that I might be interested would be the $1050 NLHE, $215 NLHE rebuy, and $2600 NLHE (listed in the order of my preference). I probably have some personal things to take care of that preclude the $1050 event, and I probably won't enter the $2600 unless I satellite in.

For various reasons, I need to put in a fairly substantial number of hours at Party before the end of this month. That has priority above MTTs (both live and online).

Flipping coins...

2006-09-17T23:44:00.000-07:00

Sitting through a preflop all in coin flip for ~$30k of tournament equity is not a comfortable experience...

I'm down to 15/31 with an M of 8.6

Yuck...

WCOOP Event #2

2006-09-17T23:12:00.000-07:00

Holy crap, I'm 3rd in chips with 41 left.

I've said it once, and I'll say it again. DON'T DO ANYTHING STUPID!!!

WSOP Circuit event - Lake Tahoe

2006-09-13T02:30:00.000-07:00

I got back from Lake Tahoe today after spending an extended weekend at the WSOP Circuit event.

I only played in 3 events, 1 mega, and 1 2nd chance - cashing 2 times albeit in the 2 smallest buyin tourneys.

The highlight for me was event #4, $300+$40 NLHE/NL7CS. When the field was down to 3 players, I held 50% of the remaining chips (it was in the middle of a NLHE round with 47 total big blinds in play). As there is no ring given in any circuit event other than the main event, I didn't see a great deal of value in winning the event. We negotiated a deal in which the 2nd chip leader would be listed as the official winner of the event. I was officially listed as the runner up.

Bah, this was one of those "I wish I could take it back" decisions. Anyway, what's done is done.

The field had a mere 47 entrants. The only bracelet winner I noticed in the field was 1997 7CS winner Vince Burgio whom I did share tables with for about 2 hours. However, we were involved in exactly 0 hands together.

Still alive

2006-09-07T02:24:00.000-07:00

Although I haven't posted in ages, I have been playing a lot of poker lately.

After my awful results in the WSOP, I have spent the vast majority of my time grinding it out in cash games - online, live, small stakes no limit and midstakes limit.

In the next few weekends (starting with this one), I'm planning to go back out on the road for the live tournament circuit. I plan on hitting up some WSOP Circuit events in Lake Tahoe (although I expect very small fields at this series) this weekend, Cal State Poker Championship events at the Commerce the following weekend, and Festa Al Lago at the Bellagio in early October. That is a lot of travel (and plans are always subject to change), but I am looking forward to giving another shot at these $500-$2k buyin events.

That's it for now...

Good eats

2006-08-21T00:28:00.000-07:00

I've been meaning to make a post listing a bunch of random things from Las Vegas/WSOP/Rio/Harrah's that I want to remember for next year. However, I've been far too lazy to do it. It has been a week already, and much is forgotten.

One thing that still hasn't slipped my mind, but that I definitely don't want to forget, is my new favorite quick meal in Las Vegas: Tom Yum Noodle Soup
This is available for about $7 at the Thai/Chinese restaurant right at the corner of Spring Mountain Road and S Valley View Blvd which is roughly 1/2 mile from the Rio.

Yum yum, I'm salivating just thinking about it...

Going home with some dignity?

2006-08-09T14:26:00.000-07:00

Due to personal reasons, I sat out of Events 42-44. I was seriously considering throwing in the towel for the series. My family was strongly suggesting that I head home early.

I got motivated hearing that Bill Chen made another final table, so last night I registered for the final event, #45 $1500 NLHE.

My starting table featured Humberto Brenes and, of course, a late arriving Phil Hellmuth.

Phil won a quick all in coin flip that saved us from listening to any verbal tirade.

Humerto played exactly 3 hands, 55, AA, QQ having his headsup opponent in bad shape each time, but lost 2 sizeable pots and chopped the other. Humberto took it very well, and gave the dealer a friendly slap on the back. The dealer freaked out, and tried to call the floor on him. Humberto tossed the dealer a C note, but the dealer was not placated. Humberto eventually left without things getting too out of hand.

My next table featured Cyndy Violette, but nothing too interesting happened there.

My final table featured Doyle Brunson and Krazy Kanuck (fellow Canadian, James Worth).

I only spent 2 hands at this table. The second hand, I got it all in 3 ways with Doyle and my neighbour with the nut straight. My opponents had the 2nd worst possible set of hands - bottom set for my neighbour, and a K high flush draw for Doyle. Doyle took down a very nice pot when he made the nut flush on the turn, and my neighbour missed his redraw.

I was initially thinking I could finally go home with some dignity after getting my chips in with the nuts, but Poker Stove tells me my pot equity was a mere 38%.

Sigh... I'll have to hope for a better series next year....

Live play MTT lesson

2006-08-05T22:02:00.000-07:00

The $200k Crypto freeroll for WSOP Main Event qualifiers (who did not reach the money) ran at Gold Coast today. An additional $20k+ of bounties was also awarded. There were roughly 90 runners, with 50 places paying. Man oh man, talk about nice overlay...

There was one hand today where I made a mistake that only could occur in live play in an MTT. I resolve to never make this mistake again. There are probably a number of dubious actions on my part in the hand, but one thing really sticks out to me.

hand #1
The villian in this hand is probably the tournament chip leader, and he has already collected 1 pro bounty for $2k. I have already made a pretty big laydown on the river to Kenna James (who is not involved in this hand) about 15 minutes earlier.
Blinds: 50/100, effective stacks T$10,000, avg stack is perhaps ~T$10,000
- preflop: folded to CO and Villain raises to T$300, Hero raises to T$1200 with AhQh, blinds fold, Villain fairly quickly calls. (2 players, T$2550 pot size)
- flop: Qd7c4h, Villain checks, Hero bets T$1500, Villain fairly quickly calls. (2 players, T$5550 pot size)
- turn: Qd7c4h7h, Villain bets T$2500, Hero tanks for ~15 seconds and calls (2 players, T$10550 pot size)
- river: Qd7c4h7hTc, Villain fumbles around with his chips, puts 8 $T500 chips out and ~3/4 second later says $T5000, dealer reaches out, counts the chips and says the player said $T5000. Villain says okay, and puts out a $T1000 chip. Hero tanks and calls all in for T$4800.

Do you see the worst mistake in this hand?

By the way, I'm pretty proud of how pathetic I was able to look when I made the T$1500 flop bet....

Main event hand

2006-08-03T00:42:00.000-07:00

This post is several days late......

Originally, I was going to post a number of my main event hands, but the only significant hand that was not in some way a bad beat story is the following hand:

hand #1
- mid-level 4 (100/200/25), avg stack ~T$17k, MP's stack ~T$15k, Hero's stack ~T$10k. MP's has been playing fairly conservatively, and took 2 very substantial pots this level (both with a set) to get his stack up from less than T$10k.
- preflop: folded to MP who limps, MP+1 mucks, Hero raises to T$800 with AdQs, folded back to MP who calls (2 players, T$2150 pot size)
- flop: AhJc7s, MP checks, Hero bets T$1000, MP calls (2 players, T$3900 pot size)
- turn: AhJc7s5s, MP donks T$1500, after tanking for ~15 seconds, Hero raises to T$4500, MP tanks for 1 minute then pushes, Hero folds.

I left myself with ~T$3700 after putting in almost 2/3 of my stack. Was this wrong?

During the hand, when MP bet into me on the turn, I was certainly concerned that I was behind in the hand. I elected to make the raise to T$4500 in the hopes that I could set the price for the showdown. (with the rationale that MP would set me all in on the river if I smooth called the turn)

Would it have been better to preserve my stack by calling the turn, and mucking to an all in on the river?

How often is my hand good when MP bets into me like that on the turn?

I currently believe my line of thinking was poor. I'd assume with a better hand, MP donks into me to avoid giving a free turn card once the flush draw came. Based on what MP had seen of me (or if he had been oblivious to how I had been playing), I'd assume that MP would only assume that I would take a free turn card if I didn't have much of a hand. With that assumption, MP is less likely to make a big river bet if he wants a call.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

My next WSOP event is tomorrow: Event #40 $1000k NLHE. This is going to be quite a crapshoot...

Aggressiveness or recklessness?

2006-08-03T00:14:00.000-07:00

I'm having some doubts about my general MTT strategy.

I've been playing 1 MTT per day (online or live) on this Vegas trip, and with the exception of the Sunday Party $1m guar (where my dad was sitting next to me sweating me out), I've been taking a relatively high risk aggressive line in a marginal tournament situations. Perhaps way to aggressive.

For example, in Tuesday's Wynn $300+$30 nooner, the following scenario developed:
- 180 runners, top 18 get paid. 130 remaining midway through the 3rd round (100/200 blinds). 130 left in the field, Avg stack ~T$4150. My table has just broken, and I am above avg with ~T$6900.
- I walk over to my new table, notice that I am just about to take the big blind, but don't pull the olde "wander around looking for my table until I just miss the BB".
- I sit down and the old gezzer to my left has a monster ~T$14k stack, and there are a couple of slightly above avg stacks to his left. 3 small stacks are on my immediate right. pfft!
- very first hand, it is folded to the SB who completes. I make it T$800 with K8o which essentially puts SB all in. He grumbles for a couple of seconds before mucking. (...like SB wouldn't have jammed on me with any better hand!!)
- very next hand, it is folded to MP+1 (who is actually a regular from the 20/40, 40/80 LHE games in my local cardroom) who limps with an avg stack. Folded to me in the SB, I make it T$1000 with JcJh because I want to end the hand preflop (MP+1 "knows" that I am not normally a light raiser), and avoid playing a pot out of position with Mr. monster BB. Both muck (although BB grumbled about it)
- very next hand, UTG limps (although I didn't notice..... my sucky observation skills), folded around to me on the button. I make it T$600 with JcJh (yes, identical hands back to back). SB (Monster stack) looks me square in the eye and quickly calls. BB mucks, and UTG calls. (3 players, $T2k pot)
- flop comes: 2s5h6s, SB leads for T$1600, UTG mucks, I jam for T$5300 more, SB calls in less than 3 seconds.

SB struck me as an old geezer who could easily be sick of my raising antics who could be capable of calling my push with an underpair to my JJ (overpair to the board) or any draw. I didn't do the math at the time, but there are 24 ways for 77-TT, 19 ways for AsXs or KsXs. I strongly doubted he would have led at the pot with any better hand (but hell, I had no prior observation of his play).

Anyway, SB's actual hand was As4s and I busted when the Ac hit the turn and I missed the miracle 1 outer on the river.

Should I have taken a more passive line on the flop vs. the big stack at this stage of the MTT?

Out

2006-07-29T01:31:00.000-07:00

Busted towards the end of level 4. A moderate number of interesting hands. I'll post these tomorrow....

neat little extra

2006-07-28T01:46:00.000-07:00

I've recently ranted negatively about Interpoker. How about saying something nice for a change?

Well, here's one: A thoughtful little extra that was in the Interpoker swag package was a 25 minute massage.

I've never had a massage at the poker table before (primarily because I am too cheap), so here's to hoping I don't fall asleep at the table...

Ready to rumble

2006-07-28T01:28:00.000-07:00

I arrived in Vegas late tonight. There was a whole mess with how I handled the accomodations, so I'm staying a couple of nights at Harrahs before moving to the Rio on Saturday. I have lots of material to write about if I get the time. (and I haven't finished up my event/trip reports from my earlier WSOP events...)

I'm starting tomorrow (Day 1A), Table #14, Seat 8.

You should be able to sweat me at Wicked Poker Chops. WCP is going to be providing some coverage for 5 bloggers.

Bad beat

2006-07-20T17:19:00.000-07:00

I've been back home for almost three days now. I've got a couple of partially written posts from the trip. Hopefully, I'll be able to finish them soon although I have been a bit buried in crap from the day job.

The only bad beat I took last week that is worth mentioning came about when I stopped by the Will Call desk (for the 2nd time, as a last ditch check) to check on my Main Event registration.

Interpoker finally got around to registering me, and managed to squeeze me in for my last choice, Friday 1A. Great job Ryan Hartley! You only had 4 months to get the registration in. Too bad 1C and 1D are no longer available. I also appreciate how slow or unresponsive you have been to my emails for the past few months. Wasting time on simple administrative details leaves a warm fuzzy feeling.

For no apparent reason, next year I will be giving my online WSOP qualifier business to Stars and FTP.

Event #22: $2k NLHE - donking it up

2006-07-15T08:38:00.000-07:00

I didn't make the first break yesterday. I gave way too much action in the early rounds, although from a meta game perspective this might have been helpful in the next couple of levels if I had got a hold of some chips.

~12th hand, level 1 25/25 (T$2000 effective stacks)
preflop: UTG raises to T$100, folded to hijack who cold calls, Hero makes it T$575 to go with JsJh, blinds muck, UTG quickly calls, cold caller mucks (2 players, T$1300)
flop: 4c5h5c, check, Hero bets T$1000, UTG check raises all in for T$425 more.

Given that UTG did not shut out the cold caller, I'd give him a range of QQ-JJ, AcKc. That is 8 hands, 6 of which I'm a 9:1 dog, 1 of which UTG is freerolling to a chop, and 1 is a coinflip. My on the spot math skills were spotty due to lack of sleep, but I guesstimated I was about a 4:1 dog getting about 8:1. (actual was actually 4.4:1 dog getting 8.8:1)

I relectantly called and UTG missed his freeroll, so we chopped.

John Juanda was sitting in UTG+1, and he remarked to UTG that he was almost certain UTG had me beat when I took a few seconds to make the crying call.
I chipped up to about T$2700 raising a lot of hands. Early in level 2 I think I got about 1/4 of Juanda's stack because of my loose image.

Halfway through level 2, I dropped back down to about starting chips when I open raised the button with a big A and my opponent made 2 pair on the turn. So I was in the undesirable position of having a loose image but not a lot of chips.

About 45 minutes into level 2, the following hand came up. I didn't properly consider my table image.

25/50 blinds
preflop: folded to hijack who raises to $T150, mucked to Hero in BB who calls with 6c8c (2 players, T$325)
flop: Kh5c4c, Hero checks, hijack bets T$250. (At that time I totally misread my opponent. I didn't have any physical read on him, and I interpretted the bet size as weak given the coordinated flop), Hero counts out T$250 and then adds T$600 to make it T$850 to go. Hijack tanks for 15 seconds and then pushes all in for T$850 more. (At this point, I'm concerned I was trapped againist a bigger flush draw and top pair, but I did have hijack covered by about T$500) Hero reluctantly makes the call only getting 3.4:1.

Hijack shows top pair Ks, J kicker with no draw and wins the coin flip.

Next hand I open push my 77 in the SB; BB wakes up with 66 and I went straight to hell on the flop...

Next up: Event #23 $3k LHE

!writer

2006-07-13T17:25:00.000-07:00

Getting knocked out early today has given me a bit of time to catch up on some blogs. At one point, I was trying to write an entry to describe how Day 1 of the HORSE event went, and how I felt during my time there. I realize that I'm a terrible writer, and found a post by Paul Phillips that describes it very well.

While making the walk of shame, I briefly debated playing live cash games or online play for the rest of the day. I chose to head back to my room at the MGM for some online play. My reasoning is that I don't feel like donking around in lower limit cash games, and my psychological state is too weak to play mid limit games. Instead I'm multitabling a ton of smallish buyin WSOP bracelet races/supers/subqualifiers as they require very little decision making abilities....

Quick bustout

2006-07-13T15:08:00.000-07:00

Arguably my only cold deck situation of the event. I can probably get away from the hand with 700 chips, but I'm too stuborn and annoyed to give it up.

preflop: Hero open raises in CO w KdQc (with 2.75BB behind), button (Joe Cassidy, overall chip leader) 3 bets on the button, blinds fold. (2 players, 7.5 small bets)
flop: AsKhKs, check, check (2 players, 7.5 small bets)
turn: AsKhKs5s, bet, quick call (2 players, 5.75 big bets)
river: AsKhKs5s8c, bet, raise, call all in. Villain shows AKo.

I start making the walk of shame, which is briefly interrupted by a quick trip to the registration desk to enroll in event #22, $2k NLHE.

Some random stuff from the HORSE

2006-07-13T09:21:00.000-07:00

A photo of me and my $53k stack before my chips got Razz'ed by Mark Gregorich

I couldn't pull down a pot after the dinner break. So after playing 2 large pots in Razz and 1 large pot in Stud8, I've managed to drop from average chips to 124/129 with a chip count of just over 13k. At the next level I have a mere 4.5 big bets, so the action will go quickly on Day 2. Thankfully, the first level is Hold'em so I'll have a better idea of what I'm getting my remaining chips in with.
At the end of the night, there was a redraw for seating assignments. I drew Table 121, seat 8. Like my table on Day 1, Table 121 is along the rail.

Anyway, I'm pretty pooped, but these are some random things from the day:
- In my first ever WSOP event, I made the dinner break. Quite an accomplishment when you consider that 100% of the field made the dinner break....
- I was quite amused with Aaron Katz repeatedly calling me "Kid" as I suspect I'm at least 5 years his senior.
- My table on Day 1 was not an action table. Big pots only developed when big hands or big hand(s) vs. big draw(s) clashed. No one was eliminated at our table, and during level 14?, Chip Reese was moved to balance another table. On average, this puts players at our table at a slight disadvantage over other tables. However, given only an average of 1 player per table was eliminated on Day 1, it is not a substantial disadvantage.
- Pros whine just as much amateurs about bad cards, bad beats, missed draws, etc... My table featured Mark Gregorich, Ted Lawson, Chau "The game is on !!" Giang, Greg Mascio, Aaron Katz, "Chip" David Reese, and Tommy Hufnagel. The only player at the table who we didn't have to listen to cry about their hand at some point was Tommy H. This wasn't surprising as Tommy spoke about 50 words at the table in 13 hours. For example, he didn't say a word after he got cold decked in a HUGE pot in Stud Hi when he made Jacks full vs. Greg's quad 7s.
In general, I was surprised was with how childish some of the very experienced cash game pros were.
- A very small, but nice thing is getting Platinum status in Harrah's Total Rewards program which lets you get in the VIP lines. A nice time saver...

Vegas bound

2006-07-11T19:30:00.000-07:00

My flight to Vegas leaves in less than 2 hours. The first event for me kicks off at noon tomorrow.

My expectations are pretty simple. I'm hoping I can sleep well during the trip, and have a few nice long days of poker. That's not much to wish for...
The one thing I hope to avoid is a trip to the bank where I walk in lighter on the way in than on the way out. I've made that trip already this month. Once is enough.

Anatomy of a $4k mistake

2006-07-02T17:46:00.000-07:00

This was a really simple but stupid mistake:

Final table of the PR Big Deal $80k guar ($300+$20, 248 runners, 7.5% overlay)
- 8 players remaining
- average stack 19x bb
- Hero's stack 17x bb, Hero's rank 4th
- all opponents behind Hero have 10x bb or less in their stack EXCEPT for 2nd chip leader in CO.
preflop: folded to Hero in MP+1 who finds 88, Hero pushes for 17x bb, muck, insta call, muck, muck, muck (2 players, pot size 35.5x bb)
postflop: XXXXX, CO wins 35.5x bb w AA.

To more fully set the context: I was multi-tabling 3 big MTTs/Supers (in all MTTs, my stack value was higher than $1k real money). For the first ~8 seconds of my time in the PR hand, I was dealing with a decision in the Stars $1m guar. I'm not certain if PR has a time bank, but I assumed no (NOTE TO SELF: check if PR has a time bank for MTTs!!).
In the past ~1 hour of play, I had raised 3xbb/folded to reraise 3 times. Without much time to prudently analyze the situation, I pushed simply because I had all but 1 opponent covered.
I should merely have raised something like 3-4x bb, and mucked to a reraise from the big stack. My remaining stack is worth ~$4k.

The basic lesson here is, when multitabling, time-management priority MUST be given to the decisions that have greatest value. Yes, rocket science.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Weekend MTT stats
ITM: 18.2% (2/11)
ROI: 18.9% (+$474.80)
Hours played: 12.5
Hourly rate: +$38/hr

More useless stats

2006-06-29T23:02:00.000-07:00

Here is another snapshot of my statistics related to qualifying for 2006 WSOP events (technically also 2007 WSOP events because I have been playing a number of sats at Stars after qualifying on the Cryptos, and Stars policy is to transfer the 1st seat of such people to the next year):

Total buyins: $7612
Net $ result: -$2004.80
$ ROI: -26.34%
Value of seats won: $14500
Combined ROI: 164.15%
# ME Supers: 17
# ME Super subquals: 16
# Bracelet races: 18
ITM: 25.5%

One statistic that I did not accurately track is # hours invested. This is a substantial miss. (My excuse is that I'm often mixing in ring games/other non WSOP-related MTTs and supers, and in my spreadsheet I track total clock time, not table hours) Next year, I will definitely do a better job of tracking hours. I would really like to measure hourly rate in these things.

(Note: HORSE seat from Party freeroll is not included in stats, as this skews them way too much)

Random thoughts...collected from somewhere other than the Rio

2006-06-28T14:45:00.000-07:00

The trip reports from the Amazon ballroom are flying fast and furious. While I feel the sense of missing out on the action (particularly since 4 of the first 6 events are on the ESPN filming schedule - out of a total of only 11 filmed events), one good part of being stuck in my cubicle for the next two weeks is that I have the time to sift through the trip reports to find useful practical information for my own upcoming trek to Vegas.

Many of these tidbits are very insignificant, but I'll keep track because lumped together they might add up to something useful.
e.g.
- According to Bugstud: To avoid a super long walk, parking at the Rio should be done in the lots near the convention center entrance rather than following the default signs to the parking garage. GrannyMae: If taking a cab, tell the driver to take you to the convention center in the back of the Rio.
- Several trip reporters have commented on the cold temperature in the Amazon room. Best to bring some type of long sleeve apparel, especially if you are cold blooded like me.
- Rizen commented that playing 11 handed for a substantial part of the early rounds makes players much more card dependent than normal. This might make the 6max NLHE events slightly more attractive. In my case, I have been debating on whether to enter Event #21 $2500 NHLE 6max. However, the super large fields may diminish by the third week (if last year's trends is any indication), so this aspect probably won't affect me. Next year, if I was to particate in events during the first week, I will keep this in mind.
- Jan from 50outs described the excellent approach to customer service that PokerStars has when attempting to rectify mistakes. (This type of story re-emphasizes the added value of dealing with customer-friendly sites like Stars or FTP)
- According to Fargis, safety deposit boxes can be rented at the main cage of the Amazon room for $25. Degen/Wildbill: Horror story about using the safety deposit boxes in the Amazon room.

I'll add to this hodgepodge list as I come across other interesting tips or observations.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reflecting on my recent play, I suspect that I have been playing less patiently than in the past. I will make a more conscious effort to be disciplined in this regard.

Quick day

2006-06-25T16:32:00.000-07:00

I went out very quicky in all events today. No event went longer than 1.5 hours.

Strongly connected with a lot of flops, and played a lot of big big pots in early rounds mostly out of position. I didn't always get the majority of the money in on the flop when I was still ahead.

It feels very empty to have a full day planned, and to be done after playing less than 5 hours.

I skipped the Stars $1m guaranteed because I didn't realize in advance it was a $1000+$50 today, and didn't attempt to satellite in.

Stats (for the entire weekend)
ITM: 17.6% (3/17)
ROI: -56.5% (-$1831.95)
Hours played: ~18
Hourly rate: -$102/hr

MTTs are fun.

Mid weekend update

2006-06-24T22:17:00.000-07:00

It has been a bumpy ride so far. I have played in every event I listed in my previous post for Friday and Saturday.

The best result so far was losing headsup in a UB $3k bracelet race. That one was heartwrenching because of a huge pot that I played when it was still three handed for ~80% of all chips when I made a tough call to an all in flop raise with K6o on a Qh6h5c board and couldn't fade Kh2h.

Overall, the bracelet races have been the most exciting as I made the final table 5 times but couldn't close.

I was chip leader for almost an hour in the Legends of Poker super at Doyles Room, but faded in the 3rd hour.

It has been a little hectic since at times I was playing 5 events simultaneously at different sites. As the screen layouts are different on each site, I was not able to efficiently utilitize autohotkey, so my RSI is acting up a bit from the mouse usage.

Stats
ITM: 25% (3/12)
ROI: -18.63% (-$322.95)
Hours played: ~13
Hourly rate: -$24.84

It could have been a lot worse, but reverse 4-5 hands and this would be a good week. Bah! That is poker.

Hopefully, Sunday will be better.

I will be skipping the $1050 Crypto WSOP super as I didn't qualify via the subqual. I'm quite drained after the highs and lows of the day (mostly lows...). I'll probably also skip the 9pm Party $2k added, since I'll probably be a basket case by then.

I really am impressed by the online MTT pros that can grind through a huge number of events per day. Perhaps it gets easier with conditioning.

Interest list: June 23-25th

2006-06-23T17:39:00.000-07:00

(All times in PDT)

Friday
8:59pm--------FTP------$200+$16----------bracelet race ($1500 WSOP, $500 cash)---------10:1
9:00pm--------Party----$100+$9------------$2k added

Saturday
10:30am------UB--------$50+$5-------------bracelet race ($2000 WSOP, $1000 cash)--------60:1
11:00am------Crypto---$140+$10----------$1050 WSOP subqual--------------------------------7.1:1
11:15am------Stars-----$300+$20----------WSOP super----------------------------------------36.7:1
12:30pm------UB--------$30+$3rebuy-------bracelet race ($2000 WSOP, $1000 cash)------100:1
2:30pm--------UB--------$30+$3rebuy-------bracelet race ($2000 WSOP, $1000 cash)------100:1
3:45pm--------Doyles---$198+$19.80-------Legends of Poker WPT------------------------------63:1
4:15pm--------Stars-----$100+$9-----------NLHE Deepstacks
4:30pm--------UB--------$50+$5-------------bracelet race ($2000 WSOP, $1000 cash)--------60:1
6:00pm--------Stars-----$73+$7-------------$615+$35 subqual----------------------------------8.9:1
6:00pm--------FTP------$200+$16----------Winners choice super-----------------------------60:1

Sunday
11:00am------Crypto---$1000+$50--------WSOP super-----------------------------------------15:1
11:00am-------PR-------$300+$20----------Big Deal $80k guar
11:00am-------Bodog---$100+$9-----------$100k guar
1:30pm--------Stars-----$200+$15---------$1m guar
1:30pm--------Party-----$200+$15---------$1m guar
2:00pm--------UB--------$200+$15---------$200k guar
3:00pm--------Stars-----$615+$35---------WSOP super-----------------------------------------17.9:1
6:00pm--------FTP-------$200+$16---------WSOP super-----------------------------------------60:1
6:00pm--------Stars-----$73+$7-------------$615+$35 subqual----------------------------------8.9:1
9:00pm--------Party----$100+$9------------$2k added
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Reminder to self: NEVER enter a Stars super with $ when W$ is accepted.

A moment of anger and a long night of self doubt

2006-06-20T15:13:00.000-07:00

Summary:
I was knocked out of the Sunday Stars $615+$35 WSOP super fairly close to the bubble. 414 runners, 23 seats awarded, 3 turkeys receive a small cash payout, and, of course, 388 losers. I busted 34th at the 6 hour mark. According to Jan, the whole schebang took 8 hours to play out. Congrats to 50 outs for finally taking down a seat!

The anatomy of a Sunday (long and boring...):
I woke, for me, bright and early having decided the night before to make it a day of MTTs. More specifically, focused MTTs (primarily single-tabling). I sat down at my PC and started to carefully plot which events to take on.

I don't take a lot of the advice from PocketFives very seriously, but one article by N 82 50 24 seems consistent with the way I have been viewing super sats lately. The gist of the article is that an experienced sat player can have a substantial edge in supers that award large numbers of seats. I'm a cocky bastard, so the 6pm EDT Stars $615+$35 was the first event added to my list (although this would be the first time I have bought in to a satellite with a buyin at this level).

I have often read about the substantial overlays in the Bodog guaranteed Sunday major, so the 2pm EDT $100+$9 Bodog $100k guaranteed was a nice candidate event. A conflicting event was the 2pm EDT $300+$20 Big Deal $80k guaranteed on the Poker Room network. The pros of picking the Bodog event was the consistent substantial overlay. The pros of the Big Deal event was, what I imagined, a much smaller field with a better structure - better practice for the WSOP.

(It turns out that overlay was the word of the day, possibly because of Father's day. The Bodog event had 50% overlay, Big Deal 25% overlay, Party $1 mil guar 25% overlay, Stars $1 mil guar 16% overlay, UB $200k guar 50+% overlay, etc....)

Both Bodog and the Poker Room network don't support Poker Tracker/PAHUD, at least for MTTs, so this factor didn't influence the choice. I left the decision up in the air, and headed down to the gym (hey, I'm at 64 consecutive workout days!).

After a modest workout, I made calls to my dad for father's day and my sister for her birthday. As my wife was still sleeping, it made sense to make these calls outside on the cell phone. Well, I managed to lose track of the time, and noticed at roughly 1:58pm EDT that I better head back to register. I cut the phone call short and tried to boot it back up in time. No dice, as I made it back to my PC a few seconds too late. Apparent Bodog and Poker Room enforce an on-time registration for their events. (I can't count the number of times I've entered an event on other sites with overlay only to watch the overlay get substantially or completely chewed up by late registrations. BAH! okay, end of ranting for now...)

The next event in the pipeline was the Stars Bloggers event at 4pm EDT, so now I had 2 hours to kill. So much for MTT exclusivity. I decided to improvise by clearing the remaining Cryptos bonuses for June. This took 1.8 hours, and I even had time to take a short break before the Bloggers MTT kicked off.

During the Bloggers MTT, my wife woke up and, while having her breakfast (lunch?), she said she had just one thing to ask of me on Sunday. It was a simple errand that would require me to run out for about 45-60 minutes, but prior to 9pm EDT. Looking at the schedule, I honestly told her I probably couldn't take care of it on Sunday, but would take care of it on Monday for sure. She was fine with this.

Less than 60 seconds later, I get it all in preflop with QQ vs. AK and die on the river. (It sounds like every other Blogger that I follow busted with AA after getting all in preflop, so I can hardly complain). The Party and Stars $1m guaranteed events kicked off 29 minutes earlier, and the Stars $615+$35 kicks off in 61 minutes.

I learn from my mistake and preregister for the $615 super, jump out of my chair, give my astonished wife a kiss on my way out the door, finish the errand, and get back in my seat about 30 seconds before the start of the $615 super.

The Super:
Given the size and quality of the field and the structure (30 minute levels with T$2500 starting stacks), this is a pretty good event to enter. Roughly 50% of the field came from qualifiers.

Excluding 1 easy 2nd round double up with AA vs. JJ with a comparable stack, I was able to maintain no less than a 50% of average chip stack without winning any big hands and taking only marginal risks to my chip stack during the majority of the first 10 levels (5 hours). During levels 5 and 8, I was knocked back from above an average stack in big pots (AA vs. JJ again - turned set, and set vs TPTK - runner runner flush). Winning either hand would have, at least temporarily, given a commanding chip stack for the current table, but instead in both cases I dropped to a ~50% average stack.
In a typical online tournament, getting knocked back to a 50% average stack after 2 or 4 hours into the MTT means you are in dire straights. Given the good structure though, a 50% average stack is still very playable, and I was able to chip up again without playing any big pots.

When the field reached about 60 people, I was just dropping below 50% of average again when the 2nd overall chip leader attempted to limp reraise UTG with KK. I got a see a free flop in the BB with 36o, and doubled up after the 33x flop. Whee poker.

With exactly 36 runners remaining, the 5th break was hit, which turns out to be a lengthy 15 minute break. Because of the generous gift from the big stack, I'm sitting at just slightly over T$28000 which is just slightly under avg. However, because of a few big stacks this actually puts me in 13th place.

The 15 minute break gave me quite some time to think. I was in decent shape, but definitely not out of the woods. I felt that I would be content to attempt to chip up to the mid T$30k's with hopefully ~6-7 players remaining to the bubble and then adopt a ultra conservative stance. My stealing strategy would be to fold to any pf reraise and, if called, fire no more than 1 shell postflop unless I strongly connected with the board. Steals would be focused only on medium stacks and/or ultra conservative opponents.

This is a synopsys of the last few hands of significance:
hand #1
3rd hand after the break, 36 players remaining, avg stack T$28750, blinds T$600/T$1200/T$75, my stack is ~T$28k (M=11.3) in MP, a big stack T$65k in MP+1, T$9k short stack in MP+2, all others behind are average stacks and, in particular, BB has T$33k.
preflop: muck, muck, Hero raises to T$3800 with Qc6c, all muck to BB who reraises to T$6400. Hero calls (2 players, pot size T$15275)
flop: 9d9s7c BB bets $2400, Hero folds.

Despite the tiny pf reraise, I actually considered mucking getting almost 5:1. I had less than 10 hands played with BB (i.e. no read), but considering an average stack is willing to make a pot builder raise preflop out of position headsup with a comparable stack, I felt he would have Aces or Kings a substantial majority of the time. My implied odds were ~8:1, and the only flop I'm going to like is 2 pair or better (including a flush) with no A or K on the board. The combined odds of 2 pair or better is greater than 26:1. Despite my instinct, I still called, and then folded to the tiny bet on the flop. Sigh.... yuck

1 orbit later, a freak occurance happens. Roughly 50% of the field is suddenly (and seemingly randomly) disconnected from Poker Stars. (The total duration of the disconnect ended up being about 3 minutes, but we had no way of knowing how long the situation would be in place). 4/9 players at my table are affected, and I am not one of them.

On the 2nd hand of the outage, I'm in the CO with the button and BB disconnected. The SB is a short stack with T$11K. It is folded to me and I retardedly raise 3xbb with 53s with a T$19k stack, and I retardedly elect to fold to the SB's push getting ~2.4:1. I regret not open pushing, and my retarded reason at the time for not calling the push was that I had worried that the disconnect problem might persist for a few minutes, and I would hate to be stuck with a sub T$10k stack with all those disconnected players to steal from.

However, during this actual hand (about the time the SB jammed), the players started reconnecting and all players were actually back by the time the next hand was dealt.

Roughly 2 orbits later I push on the button with 66 into the short stack (T$3k) in the BB (who will automatically call). On the very next hand, I make a pot size reraise all in to the CO+1's 3x bb pfr with KK. CO+1 has a healthy T$40k stack and calls.
The first hand is automatic (villain flopped an overpair). The second hand, I could have gambled by smooth calling preflop. There is some chance that villain does not push on the flop with just two overs. I'll never know... (villain flopped 2 overs and a runner runner Q high flush draw that hit)

These two hands bust me. I'm upset and sick to my stomach... cursing the poker gods. For the rest of the night, I'm filled with second thoughts from my near bubble play. With hand #1, I'm okay with the idea of trying to steal from a medium stack. There were not many opportunities to open raise, and it was not out of line to try this. (I think.)

The 53s steal/fold really did hurt. In retrospect, I really wished I had open pushed or given the SB a walk, with the strong preference on the former. Should I have called his jam getting ~2.4:1?

Should I have been slightly more patient with steal opportunities? I had initially wondered how I would have fared had I went into ultra conservative mode immediately after the 5th break (so long as my M remained above ~5). The next morning when I read Jan's report that the super took another 2 hours to complete, I at least felt better about my strategic decision to improve my chipstack.

I'm a little gunshy about entering next week's $615 super, and my decision will probably be determined by my confidence level on that particular day.

Anti-focus stealing

2006-06-16T18:17:00.000-07:00

How To: Stop stupid online poker client windows from stealing focus. HERE

Amended: apparently this is only a partial fix for the problem

WSOP trip reports

2006-06-15T12:07:00.000-07:00

For some additional motivation and psychological preparation for the WSOP, I've been searching around for some decent trip reports from previous years:

Dave Scharf
Main Event 2004

Raymer
Main Event 2002

Matros
June 2005
July 2005

Fargis
June 2005
July 2005

Terrance Chan
June 2005
July 2005

DoubleAs
Event #43 2005

A first; well 2 firsts actually

2006-06-14T00:37:00.000-07:00

1st First

I entered my first $ MTT a little less than 2.5 years ago, and after entering 146 online $ MTTs (excluding any type of super/satellite/or SNG) and 43 live $ MTTs over those 30 months, tonight I took down my first unchopped MTT. I've not kept track of the number, and I was a bit surprised when I counted them up for the 189 figure. It has sure felt like a bigger number.

2nd First

This 2nd item is arguably much more significant to me. Tonight was the first time I ever played a multi-hour MTT or satellite at home in the presence of my wife without uttering a word about it to her. I didn't get visibly excited; not a single word escaped my mouth regarding anything to do with poker, no "tsk's", no "I can't believe it"'s, no "yeehaw!"'s. I'm an easily excitable person, particularly in the confines of my own home, so I'm glad to have finally had the discipline, at least once, to keep a lid on it. I can't even share this small accomplishment with my wife, because I think that would ruin it.

My favorite hand

2006-06-12T19:52:00.000-07:00

The most amusing hand of my tournament occured with about 30 players remaining. The SB in this hand has done absolutely no slow playing during the 1 hour that I sat with him, and had previously open pushed for a big overbet about 1 orbit before. 2 orbits earlier, he open completed/mucked from the SB to my push.

hand #1
7 seated, blinds 300/600/75, avg stack ~T$12,000, SB has a slightly below average stack. Hero is in BB with $T3875.
- preflop: folded to SB, SB min raises 1200, BB raises all in for 3800 total, SB calls. BB quickly turns over 9s6s, SB sheepishly turns over 9c5d.

As the dealer was dealing the hole cards for this hand, I had told myself that I would call an all in from a steal raiser with all but the bottom 10% of all starting hands. The SB's min raise was quite a surprise, but based on his previous play I did not put him on either a pair or 2 big cards. I considered mucking for about 2 seconds, but felt that 2 suited mid cards should be close to 40% against his range. Given the pot size and the metagame considerations of showing I could not be pushed off my blind with a short stack, I pushed expecting to be immediately called.

SB tanked for about 60 seconds before calling. At the end of the hand, the Dealer commented he had never seen anything like it (although he might have been referring to the board as well which came T9678). I commented that I was not ashamed of my hand, and someone else at the table commented "No kidding! You turned your hand over proudly like it was Aces."

I suppose a better way for me to have played the hand would have been to call preflop, and push if checked to me on the flop if I missed. Like I said earlier, I was pretty tired during this MTT.

Lake Tahoe WSOPC event

2006-06-12T12:11:00.000-07:00

Summary
- Played in only 1 WSOPC event; event #4 $1000+$60 NLHE. 145 runners, top 9 paid. Finished 19th at about the 8 hour mark.

Random points of interest
- The structure of this event is identical to sub-$5k buyin NLHE WSOP events; however instead of having starting chip stacks equivalent to the buyin, the starting stack was T$2500 (100bb for the first 1 hour level). Additionally, the vig is slightly better for this event than a $1k WSOP event (8.5% vs 9%)
- Players are permitted to buy into the event up to the end of the 1st round of play.
- The level of lighting in the Harveys poker room varies significantly (even between different seats on the same table), and is, on average, substantially dimmer than the regular poker rooms that I frequent. Some seats at some tables had very good lighting.
- The only name pro that I noticed in this event was James Van Alstyne. He busted somewhere in the middle of the field.
- 2nd place finisher in event #4 was Shannon Shorr. He was a whopping 21 years and 3 days old at the start of event #4. His other notable accomplishment is finishing 4th in the 2006 Aussie Millions main event for over $200k.
- The field was very soft. During my ~8 hours of play, I observed exactly 1 hand played where a player who made a postflop bet or raise proceeded to muck before showdown. This was not caused by the somewhat fast structure of the tournament. Ignoring the first two levels (where virtually all players reasonable stacks), I observed 8 hands where players with chip stacks > 40 bb put in their entire chip stack on one of the postflop streets with worse than TPTK with no greater than 5% of their chip stack already in the pot. A typical example of this would be for an early position player to limp with 2 big cards, flop or turn top pair, then bet/re-raise all in (or raise/call-reraise all in) in very bad shape.
- The Saturday 7pm Mega satellite (only 1 of 2 scheduled for this series) drew only 20 runners for a total of 2 main event seats.
- Based on a small sample size, it appears that over 80% of the runners in this event were visitors from outside the Lake Tahoe area. This should not be surprising as Lake Tahoe is a tourist destination, but this player distribution contributed to a higher percentage of tournament newbies, poker newbies, or bricks-n-mortar newbies than I had expected in a $1k buyin event. Unfortunately I have no data on how many entrants satellited into the event.

My mistakes and/or logistical problems
- Inability to read instructions: The web site for the WSOPC event clearly states that all events (besides the main event) are 2 days. Since I could only be in town on Saturday and Sunday, planning to play in the Sunday tournament made no sense.
- Lack of discipline: With very little sleep, I gave into the temptation of entering event #4 instead of resting up for the 7pm Mega. However, this probably turned out to be best for 2 reasons: 1) the field was very soft in event #4, 2) only 20 people enrolled in the Mega (where I had been hoping to play in a satellite for a minimum of 6 seats)
- Tardiness / Lack of preparation: I arrived at Harrah's at 11:45am for the 12:00pm event. Harrah's is on one side of the street, and Harveys is on the other. I find a parking space in the Harrah's lot and head in to find the poker room. I then get directions to the poker room which turns out to be over in the Harvey's building. I reach the registration desk by 11:55pm. As I don't have a Harrah's players club card, I need to head to another line to first get this. Somehow all is taken care of, and I actually reach my seat, the 10s, a few minutes after 12pm as the cards are in the air for the first hand.
At the time, I'm wearing a pair of prescription sunglasses (I really don't like to wear contact lenses) and have left my regular glasses in the car. The lighting in my seat is so bad that I cannot read my hand without substantially exposing the cards to direct lighting. I muck the first hand, and UTG busts when his flush draw does not hit. After the 2nd hand, I get up to head back to my car to get my glasses. This took ~15 minutes round trip. 2 other players at this table have already busted.
- Poor play: I made at least 3 mistakes in the first four rounds that I particularly dislike.
i. 12x bb mistake with a ~100bb stack. During round 1, I raise 2 limpers in MP+2 to 6x bb with AJs; folded back to 2nd limper (who has done nothing retarded in the whole ~dozen hands I have watched him play) who makes it 18x bb. This is an easy fold since there are almost no good flops for my hand. I call anyways; the flop is a 3 rag rainbow, and I fold to a 20x bb bet. The 12x bb wasted on this hand would have been far better served limping into many many more hands during level 1.
ii. 2.5-7bb mistake with a ~21bb stack in level 3. I'm in the BB. It is folded to the cutoff who, for various reasons, is very likely to attempt to steal. CO has about 50x bb, has been paying a lot of attention to other players and is easily capable of folding. He raises to 3.5x bb. I elect to call with 83s with the intention of stealing the pot on the flop on good boards that miss me. Flop comes Q74 rainbow, I check, CO bets 11.5x bb. I then wake up to realize the only way I can steal this pot given our stacks would be to donk 2/3 pot on the flop, and I muck.
iii. 12bb mistake with a ~20bb remaining stack in level 4. I open raise for 3.5x bb in MP+1 with 99 and a ~30bb stack, substantial table chip leader (probably close to overall chip leader) cold calls in CO and I believe he is an experienced tournament and NL player, all others fold. Flop comes Q high rainbow with 2 rags one of which is a heart. I bet 6x bb and CO quickly calls. 2nd heart rag falls on the turn, and I bet 12x bb. CO raises all in, and I muck.
CO is calling on the flop with a Q or better or with nothing with the intention pushing me out on the turn. In either case, CO is putting me all in on the turn. I should not be putting a single chip in on the turn unless I have the intention of going all in, which I did not. CO flashes a Q before mucking his hand.

Raving insomniac

2006-06-10T05:16:00.000-07:00

As is apparently becoming my tradition, I've gotten practically no sleep before the start of a moderate-major buyin live tournament. The plan has been modified, and I will rest up during the day with the intention of playing the $1000+$60 Mega at 7pm.

That way, if I luckbox my way to a main event seat, I can have another bout of insomnia next weekend....

This is becoming quite a problem...

Taking a shot at the WSOP.....C

2006-06-08T16:23:00.002-07:00

For the next couple of weeks, the WSOP Circuit event is running in Lake Tahoe. The plan is to make the trip to Tahoe this weekend with the intention of playing in event #4, $1000+$60 NLHE on Saturday. Hotel arrangements are already made, so I am committed to make the trek.

Assuming I bust early, yet still feel confident and fresh, I'll also take a whack at the 7pm $1000+$60 Mega for the main event. Another alternative will be to put in some table hours in a $2/$5 NLHE cash game. This format is not available where I live due to municipal laws. If the game is really good, I'll put in a very long session. If not, I'll call it a night at a reasonable hour with the intention of playing in event #5 $500+$50 NLHE on Sunday.

3 LHE hands

2006-06-05T16:20:00.000-07:00

Hand #1 was a tournament situation in which I could go either way on. The choice I actually made was heavily criticised at the table, but I believe that was results oriented thinking.

Hand #2 was a LHE cash game situation that had an abundance of available reads. The reads should have been able to prevent a bad laydown.

Hand #3 was a LHE cash game situation where the lack of prior history/reads should have dictated a conservative decision making process to avoid making the biggest mistake in LHE.

hand #1
Live Limit LHE tournament. Top 18 spots pay, very flat and low payouts for 6-18. Payouts for 1st/2nd/3rd is something like 30%/20%/10%. 17 players remain. Average chips ~T$19k, with about T$330k chips in play.
MP is an experienced tournament player, MP+1 is a huge lagtard who very substantially overvalues his hands (and completely ignores the actions of others), CO is a desperate and inexperienced player, BB is a very experienced, somewhat conservative tournament player. MP has just joined the table. Blinds are T$2k/T$4k.
preflop: muck, muck, MP open raises (and has T$8 behind), MP+1 3 bets (and has T$3k behind), Hero in SB mutters to BB "I hope I don't have a playable hand", muck, CO calls all in for T$2k, button mucks, Hero looks down and finds AsQc with a chip stack of T$19k. BB has T$24k.
I believe that MP's range is 66+, AJs+, AQo+; MP+1's range is 22+,A9s+,ATo+, any 2 broadways; CO's range is very large
At the time, I believed that MP was capable of folding 99 or worse, AJs, AQo to a 4-bet; Button is capable of folding anything worse than QQ to a 4 bet.
Hero's decision is between mucking and raising (with the hope of folding out BB and MP).
preflop continued: Hero 4 bets. BB thinks for 30 seconds and then mucks, MP thinks for 30 seconds and then calls with AQo, MP+1 beats him in the pot.
MP: AhQs
MP+1: 44
CO: QdJd
Hero: AsQc
BB curses because he mucked AcKd. For the huge sidepot, MP+1 is fading only 1 Ace and 1 Q.

Board comes A high with 4 diamonds. Hero nets T$6k chips with 1 player eliminated instead of losing T$2k and having 3 opponents eliminated with a monster chip stack on his immediate left.

Bah, if MP mucks a hand like 88 and MP+1 and CO have weak As, I look like a genius. Oh well, you can only put your opponents on a range of hands. What they actually have is another matter...

hand #2
Live $20/$40 LHE ring game, 6 handed
CO is a 65/30/2.5 type who is particularly aggressive with flush draws. Button is a fearless semi-aggressive player who does not slow play any vulnerable hands. BB is a tight player.
preflop: muck, muck, CO limps, button limps, Hero raises in SB w AdJd, BB mucks, CO and button call. (3 players, 7 small bets)
flop: JcTh3c, Hero bets, CO calls, button raises, Hero 3 bets, CO calls, button calls (3 players, 16 small bets)
turn: JcTh3c5c, Hero fairly quickly checks, CO immediately bets, button fairly quickly calls, Hero pauses and folds (2 players, 10 big bets)
river: JcTh3c5c6d, check, check; CO shows a missed gutshot, button wins with QcJs.

Comments: The CO's predictable play has defined his hand to not include 2 clubs (although I'd grant a small possibilty of a small flush; perhaps 10-15%). The button's history suggests either the nut flush or a hand like QJ or J9s. The button will very rarely smooth call the turn with a flush smaller than the nut flush. The number of probable nut flushes that button could have is 7 (2-9, excluding 3). ATs+ would have been a pfr. The combinations of QJ and J9s is 10. The combination of T9s, J8s and QTo is 13, but these combos can probably be discounted by about 50%. This roughly defines button's range as having the nut flush about 50% of the time.

Given the information available, the pot is big enough for the Hero to peel on the turn and check call a non-club river.

*** Note *** In a very tough game, I have to muck the turn because even on safe rivers I will often be bluffed raised out of the pot - CO will fire again on the river UI and button will raise to win with the 2nd best hand. In general, in a tough game I will have a terrible time being able to understand where I'm at in a hand like this.

hand #3
8 seated live $20/$40 LHE
CO is a very stuck player, SB and BB are unknowns; BB is a young aggressive looking Asian.
preflop: muck, muck, muck, muck, CO limps, Hero raises with AcQs on the button, all call (4 players, 8 small bets)
flop: AhJc7d, checked to Hero, Hero bets, all call (4 players, 12 small bets)
turn: AhJc7dKs, checked to CO who donks his last $15, Hero completes the bet, blinds call. (4 players, 7.5 big bets in main pot, 1.88 big bets in side pot)
river: AhJc7dKs4h, SB pauses and checks, BB immediately bets, Hero pauses and mucks, SB mucks; BB scoops with A6o.

I hate myself.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

There have been 5 hands this year in the live $20/$40 LHE game where I have folded the best hand on the turn or river in a pot larger than 10BB. 6 months ago, my most substantial mistake was calling too frequently on the river (and a close 2nd was missing value bets on the river).

The turn folding scenarios occured where my pot equity was 60-65% if I was ahead with a moderate number of scenarios where I could be drawing dead. However, it is probably safe to say that I have over adjusted.

The volume of play for this year is 4000-4500 hands, and although I have been keeping track of various statistics, I have not been keeping track of the number of confirmed good folds that I have made on the turn and or river. I think that I do need to do this to better judge how much I need to adjust my calling standards on scary turn and river boards. The problem is that the number of scenarios in which a laydown results in no showdown (or no revealed hole cards) is fairly high. Hence, my data can be quite inconclusive.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm continuing to run very well in the live $20/$40 game (it is such a great game), earning almost 2 small WSOP buyins so far this month. If I can close out the month earning an additional 3 small WSOP buyins, I'm considering making a third trip to Vegas to enroll in additional WSOP events; perhaps during the July 4th weekend, or the subsequent weekend when the WPBT event is running.

WSOP Countdown continues

2006-06-01T19:05:00.000-07:00

A mere 25 days until event #1 kicks off, so it is time again to do another preparedness review. (41 days until my first planned event)

Pseudo checklist
(I'll rank my preparedness for each item on a scale of 1-10)
- The bankroll is in good shape, although it is still definitely in the category of "taking a shot" for me to spend $13.5k to enter 7 additional WSOP prelim events. A solid winnng month in June would remove any doubt from my mind about the prelim event entries. Any losses beyond $3k in June will be deducted from my WSOP prelim event budget. (8.5/10)
- In general, my live play skills are satisfactory and improving noticibly. Time invested in this area is still producing positive results. (8.5/10)
- Skill development in Omaha8, Stud8, StudHi and Razz is severely lagging. In the past month, the combined number of hours of play is between 12-15, and 25-30 is probably more appropriate. Time devoted to reading books on this subject (typically late night) is also lagging primarily due to wasting late night hours on Tivo recorded stuff or Netflix stuff. I've cancelled Netflix and I will cancel the worst offending Tivo season passes; although the wife and I will definitely go to see Cars on the opening weekend. (4/10)
- Healthwise there has been good improvement. My daily cardio workout streak is up to 45 days. The diet is reasonable, but the regular sleep schedule is not there. I'm averaging about 6 hours a night, and I'd like to be somewhere over 7 hours per night. (6.5/10)
- I have still not practiced playing any of the Deep stack Stars tournaments. This needs to be a priority for any upcoming weekend day that I expect to be at home. (One interesting artificial restriction that has come up is that I have made a promise to myself to not play any online poker when in the presence of my wife. As we live in a small apartment, my online play will be limited to those times when she is not home or asleep.) (2/10)
- Travel plans have been more or less finalized. I'll fly to Vegas on the evening of Tuesday July 11 returning home the morning of Monday July 17. The 2nd trip will involve me driving to LV on Thursday July 27 or Friday July 28, and driving home around Thursday August 10. (9.5/10)

Assuming availibity, I'm still good to go for Events:
20 $50k HORSE
21 $2.5k NLHE shorthanded??? see below
22 $2k NLHE
23 $3k LHE
39 $10k Main Event NLHE
40 $1K NLHE
(Crypto's qualfiers have a $200k free roll at Gold Coast on the day of Event 41)
42 $1.5K NLHE
43 $1.5K NLHE
44 $1.5K NLHE
45 $1.5K NLHE

Event #21, yay or nay?
Event 21 is the $2500 6 handed NLHE event immediately following day 1 of the HORSE event. Even given that this is a Hold'em event, I'm concerned that the deficiencies in my short handed NL game make me too much of a dead money entry. Should the number of entrants into the event weigh into my decision of whether or not to enter?

I'm strongly considering dropping #21 my from plans, and replacing the time with a Mirage or Wynn $300+$30 followed by, time permitting, the 7pm $1000+$60 Mega super at the Rio. Trip reports from the 2005 WSOP described the Megas as very good after a few weeks into the series as players started getting more and more stuck and more and more desperate and wild.

Assuming my morale is not crushed by Sunday July 16, I intend to enter the $1k Bellagio and, time permitting, the 7pm Mega at the Rio.

Note: Given my current bankroll/experience/risk tolerance, I would not consider buying in direct to any WSOP events if I did not have a comfortable income outside of poker.

Main event bubble insurance
I've started accumulating points at Hollywood Poker for their bubble insurance with about 15% of the required amount. It is an easy target to hit, and I just need to remember to get it out of the way before the whole thing slips my mind.

Shame shame

2006-06-01T17:11:00.000-07:00

After running well, and much more importantly playing reasonably well, for the last month in the local live $20/$40 LHE game, I'm back to my old tricks. Namely, bad weak tight laydowns in big pots.

The game typically is highly populated with loose passive 40/4/0.5 types who are regulars (and some tight aggressively grinder props, none of whom were in this game). Their tendency to cold call pfrs is very substantially increased if there are any cold callers in front of them (so the high average VPIP doesn't necessarily mean that a pfr won't fold everyone out including the blinds, since the regulars know I am a tight player).

Atypically, the lineup today included 4 complete unknowns: 2 on my immediate left, 1 on my immediate right, and 1 two seats to my right. The other 4 regulars were of the loose passive type described above.

The hand in question is not a particularly interesting hand, but I make it a point to document my worst played hands. The hand occured 2 hands after I first posted in the CO. From those hands, I was able to gather that the opponent on my immediate right was extremely loose passive (my guess at the time would be something like 90/2/0.1; it was only 3 observed hands but I was very comfortable with this classification at the time because of the quality and speed of the decisions he made on ~every~ street in ~all 3~ hands); Opponent on my immediate left had played all three hands and had either raised preflop or bet/raised postflop (although there is no reason to think he is a maniac; the action he took was reasonable given the situations and he checked behind on the river in one hand w top pair med kicker). No player at the table had less than 12.5BB which is slightly unusual since the small buyin (5BB) is very common here. My primary point is that the average number of chips on the table is somewhat higher than average indicating a good game.

hand #1
9 handed $20/$40 live LHE
preflop: muck, muck, MP calls, Hero raises with AsJc, MP+2 brings his hand forward with enough chips for 3 bets, pauses and just calls, muck, button calls, SB mucks, BB calls, MP calls (5 players, 10.5 small bets)
flop: Ah8d6h, check, check, Hero bets, MP+2 raises saying "just testing", button quickly cold calls, BB mucks, MP calls, Hero pauses and calls, MP+2 says "you just call, I'm good" (4 players, 18.5 small bets)
turn: Ah8d6h4d, MP checks, Hero checks, MP+2 bets, button calls, MP calls, Hero pauses and mucks (3 players, 12.25 big bets)
river: Ah8d6h4d3s, checked around, MP+2 shows Ac9c and others muck

Comments: I've played with button enough to know that on the flop he has 2 suited semiconnected cards between 4-Q with an above average likelihood of a flush draw (he will always muck 2 broadways in this situaion and he will always pause if he has any A). MP can have almost any two cards. Both button and MP are going to see the river, with just one exception: button may fold a flush draw on the turn if it is 2 bets to him and the board pairs or his flush is not too high.

Questionable decisions:
- raising preflop to isolate well known very loose limper in middle position with a marginal reverse implied odds hand with a combination of unknown and/or loose players behind me; (given the number of chips on the table, multiple cold calls was likelier; particularly because I have no reason to believe MP+2 won't cold call triggering more cold calling behind)
- not 3 betting the flop to better define my hand (because the pot size is not going to have any affect on button or MP's calling decision on the turn); I can find a fold on the turn if raised by MP+2.

How I think I should have finished the hand given I just called the flop:
- check/call UI on safe turn and river cards unless bet/raise comes from either button or MP. (when I say UI, an A doesn't significantly improve my hand; I'd only consider a non heart J an improvement); the reason for this conservative line is the large number of scare cards including any card between 5-10,
- I'm also okay with donk/calling the turn and check/calling the river (if raised on the turn) given the presence of the button and MP.

A couple of other hypotheticals:
- Assuming the same action preflop, with ATo, I play the hand exactly as played.
- Assuming the same action preflop, with AQo, I three bet the flop and lead the turn.

Bubble insurance

2006-05-30T20:20:00.000-07:00

Hmmm, a 3 post day. I'm really bored.... (I'm running some tests that are taking hours to complete...)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Apparently there is a new promotion running at Hollywood Poker that offers protection for players in the 2006 WSOP main event if they bust in the last 5 positions before the bubble bursts. It doesn't matter how you get your seat for the Main Event, the qualifier for the insurance is to earn 1500 Poker Points. Given the small/medium stakes LHE games I play, this probably works out to about 1000-1200 raked hands. Averaging 2 short handed tables, this is close to about 7 hours of effort.

How would you estimate the value of this insurance (to justify the time investment)? I assume the most beneficial situation the insurance would provide for is if you have a stack with an M around 3-6. Other stack sizes obviously benefit, but my feeling is that players with modestly low Ms get the most bang for the buck. With this insurance, you can open push almost 100% of the time during the bubble+5 -> ITM until you either get to a slightly healthier M (perhaps ~10) or bust.

All things being equal (in terms of the calling standards of your opponents), the number of times you will have the opportunity to steal the blinds is simply proportional to the number of hands that will be dealt in the bubble+5->ITM period.

Assuming a field of ~8000 entrants and top 10% paid, then the bubble would hit at the ~800 player mark. Thus hand-for-hand bubble play would involve 80+ tables.

I imagine that time-wise, the bubble period is pretty long. In terms of number of hands played, it may be pretty small, given 80 tables in play. What is a reasonable estimation on the number of hands this will be?

Naturally you need to avoid letting anyone at your table know you are carrying this insurance policy.... (Given that I have a big mouth, I would need to remind myself to zip it...)

I guess another situation this has significant value is if you are in the dead zone (M ~1) at the bubble + ~10 mark. If card dead, you might be able to play like Broomcorn's uncle to make it to your artificial bubble.

Again, how can you translate these potential situations into a present value?

Basically the value is composed of two parts: 1) value gained given the percentage of the time that you would have busted without the insurance. 2) net value gained by building a larger stack because you have a license-to-steal (NET value because the probability of busting is much higher).

These are my current assumptions:
- my probability to reach the bubble zone is 10%.
- bubble + 5 -> ITM lasts 2 orbits
- Stack size distribution:
--- 5% of the time I have an M < 1 at bubble + 10
--- 70% of the time I have an M of <6
--- 20% of the time I have an M of 6-20
--- 5% of the time I have a very healthy stack.
- For each of the 4 stack size distributions, there should be 4 numbers estimated: i) probability of busting OOTM given you have no insurance, ii) probability of busting OOTM given you have insurance, iii) increased tournament equity due to increased blind/ante stealing, iv) tournament equity lost by busting OOTM (due to larger risk taking from insurance)
- For each of the 4 stack size distributions these are my estimates for those 4 numbers:
--- M < 1 at bubble + 10: 95%, 95%, $0, $0
--- M of <6: 25%, 50%, $2000, $0
--- M of 6-20: 15%, 35%, $1000, $2000
--- very healthy stack: 5%, 10%, $500, $4000

Punching these numbers into excel yields a value for the insurance at $468. (Close to an hourly rate of $66/hr assuming 7 hours to earn enough points to qualify). The one assumption that has a dominating effect on the estimate is the probability of reaching the bubble zone. 10% is very very optimistic. Perhaps 5% is a better number. Even then $234 of value is worth the time investment given the stakes I play at.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One other thought on bubble play relates to my understanding that Harrah's (Binion's) traditionally gives the bubble boy a free roll into the following year's WSOP main event. Assuming this is the case and considering the point of view of satellite qualifiers to the main event who reside in the retarded-taxation-on-recreational-gambling-USofA, getting a freeroll into the 2007 WSOP is worth almost $3k more than a ~$12.5k bottom tier cash (when taxes are taken into consideration). Thus with any stack with an M less than 3, I think I would jam 100% of the time on every hand regardless of the action in front of me on the real bubble, insurance or not. (actually even more so with the insurance since finishing on the bubble is worth much more than finishing with a tier 1 payout; closer to the payout for top 5% of the field; better check the T&C at Hollywood, maybe they don't cover the true bubble boy because of that loophole)

"These are the Daves I know I know, these are the Daves I know..."

2006-05-30T17:12:00.000-07:00

Shout out: Dave Scharf

Okay, so I don't actually know him, but he is both a fellow Canadian and a fellow Dave; that must count for something.

Dave is a long time semi-professional midstakes player; both live and online. Among other activities, he blogs regularly on topics that often includes thoughts and ideas related to psychological factors and preparation related to playing poker.

Although he only posts about once a week, I find his writing interesting and motivational. Perhaps you will too.

(I don't believe his blog is syndicated, so you actually have to, gasp, go to his website to check for new posts....)

RE the title of this post: This was a song from a skit on the show Kids in the Hall.

Protect yourself

2006-05-30T12:03:00.000-07:00

Dealing is not an easy job, and a good dealer is a valuable asset to any cardroom. Unfortunately an inexperienced or bad dealer often requires players to take up the slack.

There have been a number of threads at 2+2 alluding to pay structure changes by Harrah's for dealers in this year's WSOP. Simply put, there is effectively a substantial pay cut for dealers.

This almost certainly means that, on average, dealers will be less experienced and more error prone than in the past. Some trip reports from 2005's WSOP were not particularly flattering with regards to dealer standards, and this year will likely be worse.

It is perfectly conceivable that you may be seated at a table with 9 opponents who have virtually no live B&M experience. Don't let any of their lack of experience hurt you. When their lack of experience helps you, that is a different matter entirely....

The absolutely most important steps that you, as a player, should take are:
- DO NOT release your winning hand until the dealer pushes you the pot
- DO NOT muck your hand at showdown until you are certain that your opponent's hand is the winner. Visually verify your opponent's hand; don't rely on what your opponent declares his/her hand to be or even what the dealer says

The above two points are simple but HUGE.

Other relatively import points are:
- Follow the action to ensure you know which other players are still in the hand to avoid "acting out of turn" situations. Many players will have the hole cards hidden and the dealer may frequently miss this.
- At the end of an all in showdown (win or lose), pay attention to make sure the dealer counts the stacks correctly. It may be hard to bring yourself to do this if you just lost a monster pot, but you need to have the discipline to do this. (I'll be the first to admit that in a number substantially big $ live tournament showdown situations, I was too upset or disgusted at the time to audit the dealer. On other occasions, the number of times I have observed a dealer miscount scares me.)

A few other, but in comparison very minor, things to watch out for that inexperienced/tired/or bad dealers will miss:
- Ensure the dealer is not sloppy in exposing cards while dealing
- Ensure your opponents are not shorting the pot with their blinds/antes or when making bets/calls etc
- Ensure the button and the blinds are in the correct positions

Additionally, there will be numerous situations where players can make minor actions that can help speed the game up; e.g. making change in advance, not disturbing the dealer or active players in the middle of a hand, making it very clear if you are still in the hand by keeping your hole cards in plain view or not putting your hands in front of your chips when you have already mucked (perhaps confusing active players into believing you may still be in the hand), etc.

Can anyone think of other things to keep in mind?

Overheard in the postgame...

2006-05-26T23:45:00.000-07:00

Mr. DH: "Wow, I just won another WSOP seat!"
Mrs. DH: ".... great.... That means you are going to spend even more time in Vegas?"
Mr. DH: "Um.... no I guess this just covers some event I was already going to enter. Nevermind..."

Nothing like spending your dough before you make it to take away the thrill of winning...

Fully funded

2006-05-26T23:38:00.000-07:00

I took down a bracelet race tonight on FTP. Additionally, I ran well enough during the week in live LHE cash games to be fully funded for all of the WSOP events I intend to enter.

This was the kind of (abnormal) week that makes me want to quit my day job. Here's hoping to staying on the sunny side of variance....

Rakeback query

2006-05-23T15:17:00.000-07:00

If you have a tiered rakeback deal, it often comes in handy at the end of the month to be able to do an instantaneous rakeback calculation based on your current MGR (monthly gross revenue) to see where you stand if you are very close to hitting another tier. (many sites/affliates provide this info on a daily/semi-daily basis, but sometimes you just need more up-to-date info!)

The following thread at 2+2 details how to create a query to obtain your current rakeback from your poker tracker database.

Further post session analysis

2006-05-22T17:29:00.000-07:00

After further reflection on my last long live session, I want to record some thoughts on the psychological factors.

Internal factors

I was able to maintain a very healthly/positive state of mind for the entire LHE session. This contributed to me "only" making 2 BB worth of ~known~ mistakes while playing LHE: 1 missed turn value bet and 1 bad river call (realistically, I made substantially more mistakes that I didn't identify, but that is out of the context of this discussion).
However, I realize now the strong mental state was merely due to luck and timing. Assuming exactly same hands had been dealt with exactly the same opponents, if the ordering of the hands had been switched around only a modest amount, then I would likely have been in a weaker frame of mind and made far more mistakes.

I won my very first hand of the session and did not take any bad beats in the first hour. The high water mark for the session was about +50BB, and, after this high, the lowest point was probably about +30BB. Had I opened my session with the same -20BB run, it would have been much harder to be as selectively aggressive postflop with weak and vulnerable hands.

Many online players use a variety of techniques to hide their current sessions results from themselves specifically for these types of reasons. (e.g. buying in for a moderately large, but random amount, or covering your table cash balance using a physical or virtual post-it note)

I suppose that when playing live I could use a similar concept - namely stacking my chips in a manner such that I cannot accurately determine my chip stack. However, realistically this can't mask the stack size by more than +/- 15-20%. I've never tried this, but perhaps that degree of ambiguity would be enough. I'll give it a shot in my next session.

Ironically, keeping a running count on all chip stacks, particularly one's own, is essentially in any tournament (or NL cash game). Since prepping for live MTTs is my number 1 priority, perhaps I should only be focusing my effort in becoming more, in the words of threebet33, emotionally detached but mentally engaged. How the heck can I do that?

Stamina

2006-05-22T11:54:00.000-07:00

I'm really not impressed with my stamina when playing for very long live sessions, and I'd like to devise some kind of action plan to improve in this area.

Yesterday, I grinded through a 12 hour live session (which is not very long for many people, but apparently it is for me). I distinctly remember thinking at about the 5.5 hour mark, "Boy I've been sitting here a long time, and I'm not even HALFWAY done yet". I hope this just takes some getting used to.

My mental alertness for the first 9 hours ranged from very good to satisfactory, but suffered a serious decline in the last 3 hours. Perhaps not coincidentally, my game choice was Limit Hold'em for the first 9 hours and ended with 3 hours of Omaha 8. The amount of thinking and analysis I need for LHE is substantially less then Omaha 8, however mental exhaustion was definitely a major factor (e.g. taking 10-15 seconds after showdown to comprehend why I got scooped from being counterfeited, not remembering my hole cards if I mucked - not a terrible thing but more of a litmus test for fatigue, etc). It might have been easier to gauge had I played Omaha 8 for the first 3 hours and then LHE for the last 9.

At any rate, the only simple plan I have for now is: try, try again. I'll shoot for at least 3 12 hour sessions per month until I head to Vegas.

My diet and exercise regime are pretty solid right now, although the sleep schedule is still quite dubious. I've gotta be more disciplined about that.

Results from the session were solid. I earned one small WSOP event buyin. (This is how I measure results these days....) I still need to earn roughly 2.5 more small WSOP buyins to cover all the events I intend to enter. (events: 20-23 and 39-45)