Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Weak late street play?

hand #1
live $40/$80 LHE, 9 handed
UTG semi-loose passive ~(22/5/0.5)
MP is loose semi aggressive player ~(30/15/0.8)
preflop: UTG raises, mucked to MP, MP 3 bets, mucked to Hero in SB, Hero 4 bet caps w QdQh, BB mucks, UTG and MP call (3 players, pot size 13 small bets)
flop: Ac5d4s, Hero bets, UTG mucks, MP calls (2 players, pot size 15 small bets)
turn: Ac5d4sJd, Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls (2 players, pot size 9.5 big bets)
river: Ac5d4sJdTc, Hero checks, MP bets, Hero mucks

The flop line seems standard - continuation and value bet. UTG's preflop range is (99+, AQs+,AKo) and MP's preflop 3 bet range is probably something like (88+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs). If the turn and river bring rags, Hero should bet all the way.

On the actual turn, Hero's hand still looks very much like JJ+. The conundrum is that Hero is usually far behind against Villain's range, yet weakness can be exploited by Villain's worse hands if Hero is not committed to showdown. A check on the turn is essentially conceding Hero's range to be QQ-KK (and Villain is not a frequent enough player that Hero can achieve balance by occasionally checking the turn OOP with a set here)

As played, Hero's river decision is to consider whether Villain will call the flop with 99 and/or 88 and is capable of firing 2 bullets on the turn and river.
vs. a range of (99+,AJs+,AQo+), a river muck costs Hero -0.78BB.
vs. a range of (88+,AJs+,AQo+), a river mucks costs Hero -1.99BB.
vs. a range of (TT+,AJs+,AQo+), a river mucks saves Hero 0.84BB.

Seemingly an easier line to take would be for Hero to bet/fold the turn and check/fold the river UI. (although against the wrong opponents, this will too frequently be exploited)

In the actual hand, I called on the turn with the intention of calling on the river to induce a bluff from worse hands in this standard way ahead/way behind scenario. The Tc is another scare card for me, and Villain did visually look comfortable when he bet. Hence the muck.

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